what chance is there that china will not host the 2008 olympics

Dear Ray_on_the_web, 

I am no prophet, just a mere Google Answers Researcher, so take my
answer with a grain of salt.

In the modern history of the Olympic Games, games have been cancelled
only in cases of world wars. Even the 1936 Olympics, held in Berlin,
took place as planned despite the rise of the Nazis to power four
years earlier. Since 1948 (London), every Olympic Games took place in
the place and the time scheduled. That includes 1968 (Mexico, student
rebellion), 1980 (Moscow, boycott of most Western countries after the
invasion to Afghanistan) and 1984 (Los Angeles, boycott of the Eastern
bloc). This list would probably even include the "Chaos Olympics", due
to take place in Greece next summer.

Several aspects cast a shadow on the way the Chinese handled the SARS
cases, and might influence a negative resolution regarding the place
of the Olympics. First of all, the lack of transparency on behalf of
the Chinese authorities that caused deterioration and spread of the
disease to further areas. Second, the danger in the plague itself.
Reuters report, that "The rapid spread of SARS in Beijing, and the
cover-up by health officials, also set off alarm about the city which
is hosting the Olympics in 2008." (Source: Reuters, "Troubleshooting
economist appointed Beijing mayor" 22 Apr 2003 08:23:04 GMT,
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK100881.htm).

However, I would estimate that the SARS would be all forgotten by the
time the 2008 Olympic Games are due. If the Olympic Committee was able
to disregard China's extremely poor human rights record, or its
occupation of Tibet, it would be able to disregard the mismanagement
of the SARS crisis, given that the plague would be stopped by then.

I am apparently not the only one who thinks that despite China's cover
up and mismanagement, it would get the Olympics. Stephen wrote (18
April) in the Canadian Globe and Mail": "When China was awarded the
2008 Olympics, it was widely reported in the media that, with tens of
thousands of foreign visitors expected to attend the Games, the
Olympics would force China to be more open to the rest of the world.
It seems that, based on the Chinese government's handling of SARS, the
promise of a more open society remains little more than just that -- a
promise." (Source: http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20030418/FRILETS-3/TPHealth/).
None of the sources regards a possibility of relocating the games, a
decision that would have severe financial and organisational
implications.

I hope this answered your question. I have searched the terms <SARS
2008 Olympics> to find you an answer. Please contact me if you need
any clarifications on this answer. I'd be pleased to clarify my answer
before you rate it.

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Request for Answer Clarification by ray_on_the_web-ga on 24 Apr 2003 05:40 PDT

thank you for the quick response. in all of the examples that you cite
about olympic disruption there is not one where personal health could
be at risk. all olympic cases that you described basically were
political issues. no amount of stepped up military or police
protection will be able to stop a virus based epidemic. then there is
the matter of the world health organization. once they start issuing
their warnings/ advisories there are organizations, especially those
responsible for minors that will immediately halt travel. even today
belize has called for a total halt for travel to/ from sars infected
destinations. despite the recognized civil liberty coverups that china
is infamous for, they did get the olympics. sars was not even a known
disease back then. the sars health issue is unprecedented. it takes 5
years to bring a vaccine to market once one is found. only days ago
china is beginning to own up to the magnitude of the problem.
athletes- widely envied for being persons of exceptional health may
turn a blind eye to political injustice but will they dare to ignore a
virus worse than aids.

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Clarification of Answer by politicalguru-ga on 24 Apr 2003 06:25 PDT

I agree with you, but it doesn't seem to be discussed right now in any
level of the WHO or similar organisations. It could be, that a
solution to the problem would be found in the next four years. Since
the disease seems to be highly contagious, and the fact that it had
already spread beyond China, it is likely that other regions would
also suffer within the next five years from the SARS epidemic, unless
a cure/immune would be develped. At the rate of expansion right now, a
relocation of the Olympic games to another country might not solve the
problem (see http://www.who.int/csr/sarsareas/2003_04_23/en/).

See also about the characteristics of the disease in:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/

Of more immediate concernm than the 2008 Summer Olympic Games is the
2003 Special Olympics, due to be held in Ireland, beginning on the
16th of June ( see www.specialolympics.org). There is concern over the
congregation of thousands of athletes from 165 countries and the
ongoing SARS scare (http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_773075.html).
At the moment the World Health Organisation is of the opinion that it
is safe to continue, but this may change if the numbers of cases of
SARS continues to increase.
I agree with the previous commentators and researchers. I think it is
unlikely that China would be refused the 2008 Olympics, particularly
as given the current rate of air travel, in 5 years time SARS, if it
is not cured, is likely to present on a much more global scale than
just within local regions.

I agree with most of the comments made by politicalguru-ga.

Since I'm living and working as a journalist in Shanghai I'm following
this SARS-issue rather closely. Even under the most awfull scenario
finding a solution for SARS would take a few years, not up to 2008. In
fact, we have been rather lucky here in China, because the virus is
not as contagious as it could have been (or for example flu viruses
are) and not as murderous as it could have been.
The different government departments have been displaying a degree of
incompetence that is rather shocking, but because of the rather
limited damage the virus is causing (compared to what it could have
done) it offers a good learning opportunity.
My estimation is that by 2008 China will be much better prepared for
this kind of disasters.

Fons

I would like to thank Ray_on_the_web, for his nice rating and tip, and
for a very interesting question and Rissos and fons on their remarks.

hello rissor-ga and fons-ga. since the ultimate 'point of no return'
decision on the olympics will no doubt take place long before 2008 i
can't help but feel that the sars challenges will not escape the wrath
of the athletic community. the world simply will not wait 'til 2008.
the sars issue and confidence in china's reporting will have to had a
dramatic change from what we see today. this will be an interesting
wait and see.  your remarks are much appreciated. thanks for posting.
ray