|
|
Subject:
STOCK MARKET CYCLES
Category: Business and Money > Finance Asked by: somerset1-ga List Price: $4.00 |
Posted:
02 May 2002 08:03 PDT
Expires: 01 Jun 2002 08:03 PDT Question ID: 11069 |
ONE MAJOR THEORY OF THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON THE ANAYLSIS OF PRICE TIME CYCLES. IF AN INVESTOR IS INVESTING REGULARLY IN A EQUITY INDEX FUND, WHAT WOULD BE THE BEST DAY OF THE MONTH TO INVEST ON A MONTHLY BASIS? IN OTHER WORDS WHAT IS, BASED ON DAILY CLOSING PRICE, ON AVERAGE THE DAY OF THE MONTH THAT HAS THE LOWEST STOCK INDEX PRICE? |
|
Subject:
Re: STOCK MARKET CYCLES
Answered By: hedgie-ga on 29 May 2002 09:26 PDT |
The comments already gave you two 'tips', so for the real money, you deserve a real answer, describing the state of the art. Answer is: There is no 'best date'. All days of the month give you equal chance to loose or win. More detailed explanation: Many people disagree, which is not surprising since there is a whole industry making money by selling 'best strategies'. Not all of the opponents have vested interest (a profit motive) and not all are wrong. However, the question you posed asks about a 'rigid cycle' - which would be periodic. The cycles which are being studies are more complex. Excellent book on the topic is: Business Cycles: From John Law to Chaos Theory http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/9057020661/mindconnection/002-3409150-0998410 If a simple rigid cycle would exist, if there would be a 'best day in the month' to buy and to sell, that knowledge would spread. People would start buying and selling on those days, end the effect would disappear. That's the "Efficient Market Theory" applied to you case. The market is not allays efficient. It does take time for knowledge to spread and for market to 'correct' the madness of the crowd. But any such inefficiency or secret knowledge, which may still exist, would be more complex then day of the month. Additional Links: The major concepts or theories are listed here: http://www.investopedia.com/university/concepts/concepts6.asp The "Efficient Market Theory" is applicable to your question. It's consequence is the 'random walk theory', described here: http://www.stockcharts.com/education/What/Overview/randomWalk.html which has been tested empirical: http://www.sacbee.com/content/opinion/story/2448032p-2892473c.html Search Strategy: Random Walk Efficient Market Business Cycles Hope this help. And, BTW, this may an excellent time to invest for the 'long term' as we may be 'anytime soon' be emerging from 'irrational despair' phase of the bussines cycle. Good luck and do not take this to be an advice to buy. I am not a professional securities analyst and am only describing the current state of knowledge. hedgie |
|
Subject:
Re: STOCK MARKET CYCLES
From: kudut-ga on 03 May 2002 07:51 PDT |
If you look into the Stock Trader's Almanac, there is a lot of information on such cycles. There is monthly cycles, seasonal cycles, etc. Stocks tend to raise in the end and beginning of months, and tend to be lowest in the 3rd week of the month. Just from my observations, I'd say the lowest day is typically the 3rd tuesday of each month, although it varies. |
Subject:
Re: STOCK MARKET CYCLES
From: calebu2-ga on 06 May 2002 08:44 PDT |
I can tell you that based on the past 40 years of the S&P 500 that the best day to invest is the 1st day of the month. This day has traditionally given a positive return 57.3% of the time. Compare that with the 23rd day of the month, which has given a positive return only 44.2% of the time in the past 40 years. (Derived from Businessweek.com market data) However, CAUTION! It is a well taught story in Business Schools that such rules are dangerous. For the following reasons: (1) past results are no indicator of future results. Suppose you had based your decision for investing based on the period 1960-1989. The best day to invest according to that time period was the 15th of the month, when you would see a positive return on your money 57.8% of the time. However had you applied this rule to the 1990s and 2000s, so far you would have made a positive return only 53.0% of the time (the 1st of the month was far better over this period, offering positive returns 65.2% of the time). So even if you find a handy rule of thumb that worked it the past, there is no scientific reason why it should work in the future. (2) If an anomaly exists, other people in the market will more than likely beat you at it. Occasionally, over a short period of time, there are anomalies in the stock market (like the internet boom - hindsight is a wonderful thing!). But unless you spend all of your time researching financial markets (and think about what you could be doing with the time you are researching - you could be relaxing at home for one) you are more than likely to be beaten to the post by large and experienced investors. By the time that most run-of-the-mill investors had figured out that internet stocks were the place to be, most of the gains had already been swallowed up... and by the time that they realised that a bust was on it's way, they had lost most of their winnings anyway. Don't get me wrong, you can make money on the stock market - even a little bit of research can help a lot. But unless you plan on making a career of it, your best bet is to pick a day of the week and just go with it, and don't worry too much about whether it is the right one. What matters far more, is the type of fund you invest in and how long you stay in the fund. Good luck! Steve |
If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by emailing us at answers-support@google.com with the question ID listed above. Thank you. |
Search Google Answers for |
Google Home - Answers FAQ - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy |