Dear puzzledmaine-ga;
I must say you posed an interesting, but very difficult question. I
did, however, find the answer for you after making a number of phone
calls and doing a little math.
Alzheimer's Disease, a progressive brain disorder recently referred to
as “the long goodbye” by former First Lady, Nancy Reagan, affects 4
million people. It is believed that as many as 5 million people may
suffer from the disease, accounting for almost 1 million people who
are living undiagnosed.
According to the ‘National Alzheimer’s Association’ and the ‘National
Administration on Aging’, the disease, from onset to death can range
from 3 to 20 years. This makes statistics like the one you are seeking
very difficult to independently verify. In addition, the progressive
nature of the disease allows for a regular change in overall
statistics. The number of people, then, who might be in one stage at
any given moment, may in fact have been elevated to the next stage by
the time the research is published.
Generally speaking, Alzheimer’s disease is recognized as having three
stages:
Stage 1: forgetfulness, poor insight, mild difficulties with
word-finding, personality changes, difficulties with calculations,
losing or misplacing things, repetition of questions or statements and
a minor degree of disorientation
Stage 2: memory worsens, words are used more and more inappropriately,
basic self-care skills are lost, personality changes, agitation
develops, can't recognize distant family or friends, has difficulty
communicating, wanders off, becomes deluded and may experience
hallucinations
Stage 3: bedridden, incontinent, uncomprehending and mute
It should be noted though that some studies, and indeed some research,
recognizes as many as seven stages of the disease:
“The Stages of Alzheimer's Disease”
http://www.ec-online.net/Knowledge/articles/alzstages.html
Stage 1 No cognitive decline
Stage 2 (Forgetfulness) Very mild cognitive decline.
Stage 3 (Early Confusional) Mild cognitive decline. Earliest clear-cut
deficits.
Stage 4 (Late Confusional) Moderate cognitive decline. Clear-cut
deficit on careful clinical interview.
Stage 5 (Early Dementia) Moderately severe cognitive decline.
Stage 6 (Middle Dementia) Severe cognitive decline. May occasionally
forget the name of the spouse upon whom they are entirely dependent
for survival.
Stage 7 (Late Dementia) Very severe cognitive decline. All verbal
abilities are lost.
For the purposes of your question however, we will assume, as the
majority of the medical community also assumes, that there are only
three stages. As such, this is what we know:
Approximately 4 million people are currently diagnosed with
Alzheimer’s
disease.
The time span of stage one ranges from 2 to 4 years. (This represents
an average span of 3 years)
The time span of stage one ranges from 2 to 10 years. (This represents
an average span of 6 years)
The time span of stage one ranges from 1 to 3 years. (This represents
an average span of 2 years)
According to these statistics, the average life span of an Alzheimer’s
patient, from onset to death is approximately eleven years.
By charting 4 million people (the overall known number of diagnosed
patients) and applying it to a graph where 11 years = 100%, we achieve
the total numbers in each stage of the disease as you requested
(represented, of course, as estimates, due to fact that the time span
of each stage as indicated above are measured in “average years”):
ALZHEIMER’S PATIENTS AT STAGE 1: Approximately 1,090,909
ALZHEIMER’S PATIENTS AT STAGE 2: Approximately 2,181,818
ALZHEIMER’S PATIENTS AT STAGE 3: Approximately 727,272
I hope you find my research helpful. I look forward to working with
you again in the near future:
Best regards;
Tutuzdad-ga
INFORMATION SOURCES:
“ABC News - Nancy Reagan’s Long Goodbye”
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/reagan000907.html
“Alzheimer’s Research Forum”
http://www.alzforum.org/home.asp
“Administration on Aging - Alzheimer’s disease”
http://www.aoa.gov/factsheets/alz.html
“Health Counts - The Stages of Alzheimer's Disease”
http://greatdayamerica.com/health/mentalhealth/alzheimers2.shtml
“The Stages of Alzheimer's Disease”
http://www.ec-online.net/Knowledge/articles/alzstages.html
COLLABORATIVE CONTACTS:
Administration on Aging
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Washington, DC 20201 Phone: (202) 619-0724
Fax: (202) 401-7620
E-mail: aoainfo@aoa.gov
Website: http://www.aoa.gov
Eldercare Locator: 1-800-677-1116, Monday – Friday, 9 a.m. to 8 p.m.
ET
National Alzheimer’s Association
24-hour Toll-Free Nationwide Hotline: 1-800-272-3900
Web Site: http://www.alz.org
http://www.alz.org/Contact/contact.htm (Reference Librarian)
National Institute on Aging
Alzheimer’s Disease Education and Referral Center
Phone: 1-800-438-4380
Web Site: http://www.alzheimers.org
SEARCH STRATEGY
SEARCH ENGINE USED:
Google ://www.google.com
SEARCH TERMS:
Alzheimer's statistics
Alzheimer's statistics stages
Alzheimer's rate of decline
Alzheimer's rate of progression
How many people with stage 3 Alzheimer's
Nancy Reagan’s “Long Goodbye” |
Clarification of Answer by
tutuzdad-ga
on
26 Nov 2002 10:43 PST
Dear puzzledmaine-ga;
In a later correspondence I received a response form Laura Simpkins,
the Research Specialist for the Alzheimer's Association. As to the
actual hard data statistics on the numbers of people in each stage of
the disease she wrote:
“There is no hard data on the stages of AD patients. Since most
people with AD are cared for at home during the earlier thru mid
stages, it would be difficult to track in any meaningful way. There
is an article that was written in the Annual Review of Public Health
that does have some projection stats by stage. It may be helpful:
‘The Public Health Impact of Alzheimer's Disease, 2000-2050: Potential
Implication of Treatment Advances’, Phillip D. Sloane, Sheryl
Zimmerman, Chirayath Suchindran, Peter Reed, Lily Wang, Malaz
Boustani, S. Sudha. pages 213 -231, vol. 23, May 2002”
Laura Simpkins
Specialist Library
Benjamin Green-Field Library
Alzheimer's Association
800 272-3900
312 335-0214 (fax)
I hope this additional information helps to explain why estimates of
the number of patients in each stage of Alzheimer’s disease is
currently the only reliable method of compiling such figures.
Best regards;
Tutuzdad-ga
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