What is the probability that someone who one day drops their fishing rod into  
100' of coastal Alaskan waters, would, the next day, fish it out of the water  
while fishing with a new rod? 

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Request for Question Clarification by trailhead-ga on 18 Apr 2002 20:13 PDT

What area of the coastal Alaskan waters and during what month or season?  Also,  
how long of a fishing rod are you addressing? 

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Clarification of Question by jim-ga on 18 Apr 2002 22:12 PDT

I'm talking about Southeastern Alaska, Thorne Bay to be exact, during the last  
week of July. The fishing rod is 8 feet long. But remember, these are deep  
waters with strong tides. Please take me through the calculation of probability  
and the assumptions on which it is based. Thanks. 

I strongly suspect, that, it would depend on the weather conditions, and, the 
individual's knowledge of the location where the original fishing rod was lost.

Although, over night, the likelihood is, that, the rod has already drifted away.

I assume from the way you've framed the question, that this did in fact happen, and you're wondering 
whether you should send the story to a 'weird coincidence' site.  Coincidences are much commoner 
than people tend to expect. This is because we notice when odd things happen, but not the many 
times that they don't. 

A couple of web pages explaining this phenomenon are below:

How Chance is Related to Psychology
http://psych.unl.edu/psyc450/chapter11/c11_chncpsych.html

Why People Believe in ESP for the Wrong Reasons
http://www.rit.org/essays/think/esp.html

I know little about Thorne Bay. But it is normal for everything dropped into estuarial waters to wash 
ashore in time.  This process normally takes longer than a day, though.

It's also possible that when the rod was initially lost, it lodged against something and did not have the 
opportunity to move far. So if you were fishing in the same area, you might have dislodged it and 
caught it.

As for the original question, the answer is clearly that it would be relatively unlikely, if lost in deep 
water with strong current. But it is doubtful whether anyone would be in a position to calculate a 
'probability', without making assumptions so heroic as to remove any merit from the stated answer.

REQUEST FOR CLARIFICATION
Was the rod dropped out of the Duck boat, the Jeannie M, or a skiff?  Also, 
what were they fishing for...pinks, silvers, or the almighty halibut?  Most 
importantly, was it dropped before or after the annual dinner outing to Swede 
and Shirley's?  I've developed a working probability model but cannot produce 
a reliable and repeateable hypothesis until these important questions are 
further clarified.