Dear fate7,
I will answer your question referring to France; the reasons for such
regulations prohibiting the publication of public opinion surveys in a
defined time span prior to an election are, in all countries with
comparable laws, very similar, though the lenghth of that poll-free
period varies (for example, it's one week in France, five days in
Spain, fifteen days in Italy and Greece and one month in Luxembourg).
The idea behind the French law forbidding to publish the results of
opinion polls is that the voters might be - intendedly or unintendedly
- manipulated in their decision. It is feared that voters who are
undecided or don't have very firm ties to the particular political
party or candidate they were going to vote for might see the result of
a opinion poll shortly before the election, predicting a defeat for a
political power. These voters might then hesitate in giving their
votes to a "lost cause", so their votes would be lost too, and instead
decide to vote for the power the poll presented as probable winner.
There are different reasons why the data presented in such a public
opinion survey on the possible results of the imminent election might
be wrong:
- Sometimes, opinion polls simply miss the actual mood of the public.
Since only a relatively small number of people are asked for their
opinions, the result might by chance differ very much from the "big
picture" without anyone at all trying to manipulate it.
- Also, it must be regarded possible that a group, of whatever
identity, interested in directing political developments to a certain
course could try to manipulate the undecided and unbound voters by
publishing opinion polls made up for this purpose only.
Even if nothing the like happens, the losers of an election might
argue that opinion polls published directly before the election had
influenced the voters to their disadvantage. In extreme cases, the
results of elections would never be undisputed. To avoid such
situations, a number of countries have laws prohibiting publishing
opinion polls concerning possible election results whitin a certain
time frame before the elections take place.
Sources:
The Freedom To Publish Opinion Polls, by the Foundation for
Information, 1997
http://www.esomar.nl/PDF/opinion_polls97.pdf
Austrian Parliament: Parlamentskonferenz 19.02.2002 / Nr. 99
http://www.parlinkom.gv.at/pd/pk/2002/PK0099.html
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Der Staat und das politische Leben
- Hauptereignisse im politischen Leben: Wahlen und Referenden
http://www.france.diplomatie.fr/france/de/instit/instit07.html
Search terms used:
frankreich meinungsumfragen veröffentlichung woche wahl:
://www.google.de/search?hl=de&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&newwindow=1&q=frankreich+meinungsumfragen+ver%C3%B6ffentlichung+woche+wahl&meta=
meinungsumfragen wahl veröffentlichung:
://www.google.de/search?q=meinungsumfragen+wahl+ver%C3%B6ffentlichung+&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=de&meta=
france polls "one week" election prohibited:
://www.google.de/search?hl=de&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&newwindow=1&q=france+polls+%22one+week%22+election+prohibited&meta=
Hope this answers your question!
Regards,
Scriptor |
