Kimikazu --
It is interesting to consider what options are available for the
government of Iraq, especially knowing that the Bush Administration is
intent on forcing Saddam Hussein from power.
In any change there will be a philosophical direction, such as the two
options for "liberalism" or "Leninism" suggested, with a rainbow of
practical day-to-day political issues. Those issues will decide
important details for Iraqis, including:
* what role will Hussein's supporters have after a regime change?
* what will the role of Moslem organizations have in reorganizing the
social structure?
* how will the major source of wealth – the oil industry – be
organized?
* will Iraq remain one country or will Kurdish independence be
beneficial?
* should government structures be centralized or distributed?
* what will the role of foreign governments and international
non-profit agencies be in Iraq?
* what services will be government functions? what will be
privatized?
* what will the role of women be in society?
After every war or intervention, these issues are important. Before
the end of World War II there was already active discussion among the
Allies about the post-war government of Germany and Japan. It also
occurred in Somalia, during the U.N. action from 1992-1994, but with
far less advance planning – and ultimately a failed intervention
against Somali warlords.
The Christian Science Monitor has already reported on post-war plans
being put in place by the United States. The difficulty in planning
events like this are complicated by not knowing how a regime will
collapse and what local political structure will remain, if any:
KERA Radio
"U.S. Prepares for a Post-Saddam Iraq" (Christian Science Monitor,
Nov. 12, 2002)
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kera/news.newsmain?action=article&ARTICLE_ID=418044
WHAT IS LIBERALISM?
Drawing from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy and your
definitions, a liberal political stance would be characterized by
religious tolerance; economic freedom; private property; a press that
is free of government control; democratic choice of officials; and
civil liberties.
The ways in which these choices are exercised can vary, as they do
between Parliamentary monarchies like the United Kingdom, to
Constitutional governments such as the United States. And none will
necessarily solve what could be key issues in Iraq, such as income
distribution or the role of religion in the country's life.
But the goals are a dispersion of power away from the state.
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
"Liberalism" (June, 1996)
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/liberalism/
WHAT IS LENINISM?
When V.I. Lenin died in 1924 the Soviet Union was already 7 years into
its revolution. Modern debates rage about whether the Communist
revolution was "betrayed" by Stalin, but Lenin's own writings indicate
that government should own all production, including the press and
other information sources; a single party exists; force is acceptable
to conform individuals to the goals of society; and the state would be
in continual war with capitalist enemies until they were destroyed.
Indeed the description of Leninism as the opposite of liberalism is
appropriate as his political philosophies were developed in reaction
to capitalist and monarchist governments. As an opposite model of
liberalism in governing, Lenin espoused concentration of power in the
hands of the state. The interesting question is to what extent is the
Hussein government already a "Leninist" model?
There are several references to Vladimir Ilyich Lenin on the Internet,
including several speeches at the Maoist Documentation Center:
"Selected Works of V.I. Lenin"
http://www.maoism.org/lenin/lenin_idx.htm
Josef Stalin's speeches on Leninism:
Marx2Mao.org
"The Foundations of Leninism," translated from 11th Russian edition,
1952
http://www.marx2mao.org/Stalin/FL24.html
and a broader collection of Lenin's own writings at:
Marx2Mao.org
"V.I. Lenin Internet Library"
http://www.marx2mao.org/Lenin/Index.html
WHAT'S THE ENVIRONMENT IN IRAQ?
Iraq is one of the oldest civilized places on earth with a written
history to 3000 BC. Originally called Mesopotamia, the country is
drained by the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Both Babylon and Ninevah
were ancient cities of Iraq mentioned in the Bible.
Iraq is 437,000 square kilometers, roughly the size of Sweden or
Paraguay (a little larger than the U.S. state of California) It is
surrounded by Saudi Arabia to the south; Jordan and Syria to the
northwest; Turkey in the north; and Iran on the east. On the south is
also borders Kuwait and has a port on the Persian Gulf at Basra.
Twice in the past 25 years wars have been fought with neighbors.
In 1980-1988 a long war was fought with Iran. The war was fought over
contested territory but had a religious AND ethnic basis in the two
different Moslem sects that dominate the two countries. The Iranian
theocracy is Shiite and in the 1980s had strong interest in seeing
more Moslem-dominated governments appear. By contrast, Hussein's Iraq
is secular in a country that is about two-thirds Shiite (with a Sunni
minority estimated at 32-37%; with a Christian minority of about 3%).
Additionally, Iraq is predominantly Arab, while ethnically Iran is
predominantly Persian and Azeri. Ethnically, the country is Arab
75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turkoman, Assyrian or other 5%.
In 1990, Saddam Hussein used the contention that Kuwait was
historically part of Iraq to invade Kuwait. In early 1991, U.S.-led
coalition forces went to war to remove Iraq's military from Kuwait,
though they stopped at the border of Iraq and did not force Hussein
from power. Clearly, Pres. George H. Bush (the current U.S.
president's father) and western leaders expected the military defeat
to end in the removal of Hussein from power but that did not happen.
However, the U.S. did keep continual pressure on the Hussein regime by
supporting Kurdish rebels in the north of the country; limiting Iraq's
ability to export oil; and establishing control over Iraq airspace in
the northern and southern one-third of the country.
The Central Intelligence Agency 2002 World Factbook is a good source
for general statistics on different countries:
Central Intelligence Agency
The World Factbook 2002 – Iraq (Jan. 1, 2002)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/iz.html
THE BAATH PARTY
---------------
Iraq is officially a republic but has been ruled by a single party,
the Baath Party. It is a socialist party that has at times advocated
pan-Arab unity. In 1959 Baath supporters tried to assassinate the
Iraqi leader, General Abdul Qassim. After the failed coup, Saddam
Hussein was among the party members who fled to Syria and then Egypt.
In 1963 the party succeeded in killing General Qassim and taking
power. Though Hussein was jailed for a period, in 1968 his cousin
became deputy chairman of the party's Revolutionary Command Council,
which sets policy for the government. In 1973 he became
vice-president, with his cousin as president. In 1979, after using
his family and personal connections to eliminate perceived threats,
Hussein became president – forcing out his own cousin.
Hussein's tactics in the 1970s and beyond have been similar to those
used by Lenin in the early years of the Soviet Union – elimination of
potential enemies by any means, often murder. In 1979, for example 60
"traitors" were named at a Baath Party meeting, then taken from the
hall and executed:
The Atlantic
"Tales of the Tyrant," Mark Bowden (May, 2002)
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/05/bowden.htm
Baath Party philosophy is egalitarian but Iraqi exiles describe its
application as purely tribal and power politics. In Bowden's Atlantic
article he describes an interview with Salah Omar al-Ali, who grew up
in Tikrit, Hussein's hometown. When Hussein came to power his
relatives began seizing farms owned by others. "It finally occurred
to al-Ali that the al-Khatab family was doing exactly what Saddam
wanted them to do," writes Bowden.
Said K. Akburish, author of "Saddam Hussein: The Politics of Revenge"
says in this PBS Frontline interview that in Iraq, "Family and tribal
connections are supreme. They come ahead of ideology. They come ahead
of commitment to the nation state, they come ahead of all
commitments."
PBS Frontline
"Secrets of His Life and Leadership – an interview with Said K.
Akburish" (2002)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/saddam/interviews/aburish.html
As a result, the government is filled with people from Tikrit,
Hussein's home town, and only sons are trusted enough to run the
government. Some sources estimate that half of the population relies
on the income of someone in the government or military, making the
Baath Party and the Iraqi state tightly controlled by one clan.
Akburish makes a direct connection between Stalin's tactics and
Hussein's, including training of Iraqi intelligence forces in by the
East German
The major source of revenue for the state, which comes from the
estimated 2 million barrels of oil produced per day, is from the oil
industry – nationalized by the government in 1975.
WHAT STRATEGY MIGHT WORK IN IRAQ?
----------------------------------
Given a current government and economic structure dominated by a
dictatorial regime, a transition to a form of liberalism needs a
progressive introduction. Even in Eastern European countries with a
strong desire to progress to a liberal government and economic
structure, such as Poland, dozens of issues arise testing popular will
during the transition.
In Iraq, power is concentrated in the government, making it likely
that someone equally skilled at political controls would quickly
replace Hussein. A "Leninist" condition is one that is in place
already. Lord Acton's famous quote reminds us, "Power tends to
corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
The Leninist solution would bring the danger that the successor would
be equally as dictatorial and aggressive. Government in a society
with strong regional, ethnic, and clan links can easily defeat the
distribution of power and Iraq's current infrastructure has the skills
and connections to maintain the concentration of power.
Any of the options will require breaking the clan control that Hussein
has built into Iraqi society in his more than 20 years in power and
establishing a new distribution of government control.
The realistic challenge is to put in place a government that initially
has strong controls to disassmble current structures, but with
incentives to liberalize major portions of Iraqi life.
There are several options for the U.S. and the international community
in replacing Hussein:
1. replacement with a strongly-reinforced leader who works to
liberalize Iraq sector-by-sector. Incentives to prevent continued
concentration of power in new hands would likely come from outside the
country.
2. defeat of the military and security forces keeping Hussein in power
today, followed by a rebuilding of national police or military forces,
as is Hamid Karzai's intended goal for Afghanistan.
3. division of the country, allowing the Kurds in the north to become
independent, and changing the balance of ethnic domination.
The ultimate goal should be development of strong competing sectors
within Iraqi society for governance, including religious leaders,
business interests and police or military.
In each of these three cases there are strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats. One obvious strength to simply finding a
replacement for Hussein are lower costs than going to war, which would
lose lives on both sides and cost multiple billions of dollars. The
U.S. Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the costs of
occupying Iraq would be between $1 billion and $4 billion each month.
However, the weaknesses are equally obvious: a corrupt infrastructure;
the strong potential for another dictator to emerge; no liberalizing
forces within Iraq; lack of a competitive business structure resulting
from a socialist government.
Defeat of the Iraqi military has the highest potential, but the
highest short-term costs and risks. Many Iraqi exiles argue strongly
for this path as one way to stem the continual immigration from the
country and to provide a more democratic form of government. It could
be used to quickly set up a transition to a liberalized government,
but has the danger that a family-oriented, religious society might
choose a future government much like the Iranian theocracy.
Though short-term costs would run in the billions, it eliminates
Hussein or a successor as a threat of terrorism or as a threat of war.
The long-term costs of removing Hussein may actually be lower, as the
Christian Science Monitor quotes experts as indicating that oil
production could rise from 2 million barrels today (generating about
$160 million daily in revenues) to 8 million barrels daily within 10
years. Even here there are risks, including that war would destroy
productive capacity of the oil industry for some time; that a change
in oil prices by Iraq rejoining the world economic community would
cause instability elsewhere; that Iraq might have trouble with living
with existing debt, even with higher oil production.
And the division of Iraq provides its own problems, with neighboring
countries; with the economic viability of each region; and with no
guarantees that liberalization will occur in any or all of the new
territories.
These issues are not new, having been a core part of 20th Century
history. Nor are they likely to go away after Iraq's regime has
changed, as dictatorial concentrations of control exist elsewhere.
Google search strategy:
"de-Nazification"
liberalism
Lenninism
Iraq + Hussein + Baath Party
A Google search strategy following this pattern:
"nation-building" + Bosnia (or Somalia or Afghanistan or Haiti)
returns a large number of articles analyzing recent efforts to
restructure governments
If there is any other resources or issues that you would like
highlighted, please let me know before rating this answer.
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA |
