Clarification of Answer by
spot_tippybuttons-ga
on
09 Jan 2003 16:16 PST
Let me clarify what I meant by "offline" content -- I realized that I
ran a few different ideas together there -- and then follow with some
statistics that I think will answer what you want to know.
According to a 2002 report by comScore Media Metrix, of the 19.1
million users in the U.S. owning a PDA, only about 5.0 million have
Internet access from those devices. While the number of consumers with
mobile Internet access has grown significantly in the last year, the
number of Palm and other handheld device consumers *without* mobile
Internet access is still substantially larger than the number of
consumers who do.
That means for any Palm application, you have two markets available to
you: the "offline" market of 15 million or so Palm and handheld
consumers who don't have Internet access, and the "wireless" market of
several million consumers who do.
When I said "offline" Palm application that customers could "download
for a fee and take with them when they travel" I was specifically
thinking of the market without Internet access from their PDA. This
group of consumers, in effect, does *not* have access to your
content... especially when they travel. In this case, I would expect
the sales to be comparable to that of any other shareware application.
The total sales of a shareware application are highly dependent on a
number of factors, particularly distribution; however, practically all
well-written shareware applications have a similar "registration"
rate. If you are not familiar with the shareware model, most shareware
applications offer a free time-limited demo, after which users must
"register" the application in order to continue using it. (Some
applications limit features instead of usage period.) The typical
registration rate of a shareware application claimed by most authors
-- regardless of content or platform -- is usually between 1% and 3%.
I'm not sure exactly what your site traffic is, but your web site
traffic is probably a pretty good gauge on the number of downloads you
can generate.
As far as wireless subscription applications, I wasn't able to find
any hard numbers, however, I was able to find a number of articles
about the state of the industry in general. Links to these articles
are listed below for your review. Many of the major players, such as
Disney, Playboy and ESPN have begun offering paid wireless products in
the last few years. While these products have not been making
substantial revenues yet, most of these businesses have remained
committed to producing new wireless content because they believe that
these types of products will become profitable in the near future.
Most analysts agree. According to Yankee group, the total number of
wireless data users (cell phones, PDAs and other platforms combined)
is expected to grow to over 96 million by 2006, which represents a
very large potential market. In addition to direct subscriptions, it
seems that many content providers are selling their content to larger
networks and service providers who are looking for features to entice
subscribers to their service.
The biggest lesson that seems to be learned from other companies
trying to enter the paid subscription content market is that there is
no "one size fits all" solution. The entire market is very new, and
because of that there is no "generic" business model yet as everyone
is still experimenting to find out what works.
With that in mind, you could try doing a survey of your visitors to
see what they would be interested in and what they would be willing to
pay for. Realistically, you'll be marketing to your own established
web site visitor base first, so it would make sense to find out what
appeals to them most first. This will help you best determine what
type of features a subscription/wireless service would need to provide
to encourage your visitors to buy.
Good luck,
Spot
comScore Media Metrix Report on PDA Internet Usage
http://www.comscore.com/news/cell_pda_082802.htm
Making Wireless Content Pay
http://www.ecmag.net/r13/2002/kuchinskas8_02.html
Wireless News Factor, Wireless Content Flood Ahead
http://www.wirelessnewsfactor.com/perl/story/16014.html
B2B, Forbes.com Study Finds Business Users Will Pay for Wireless
Content
http://www.btobonline.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?id=10285
Consumer Stance on Paid Content Shifts
http://www.electricnews.net/news.html?code=8878481
Disney's Internet Restructuring Pays Off as Sites Turn Profitable
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB103704675429610828,00.html
I also thought you might find this interesting. It seems that there is
already someone doing a Palm application with club listings, although
their database is smaller than yours (about 2,000 clubs):
Pocket Strippers
http://www.pocketstrippers.com/strip_club_list_info.htm