Hi,
That's an intriguing question, and the prospects are even brighter
(perhaps literally so) than you suggest. The March 13 issue
(available only in print, unfortunately) of the Journal of the
American Chemical Society reported a breakthrough in the development
of crystalline materials that have the properties of both liquids and
crystals.
Science Daily reported:
"The research raises the prospect that information and images revealed
by light passing through these crystalline materials could achieve
virtually any shape, or a series of shapes one right after another,
and very rapidly. Parts of the crystals can be brightened, darkened or
change colors nearly instantly, in billionths of a second, in the
presence of electric and magnetic fields that control the
three-dimensional shaping."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/03/020329071723.htm
The article said that "consumers, in less than a decade, might be able
sit back and revel in solid-looking images that literally project out
from a television-like device."
The following page provides information on how you can get access to
the original report (although it says you must be a journalist):
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-03/acs-cmc032802.php
Another approach has been developed in connection with monitors used
for air-traffic controllers. Wired described it like this:
"Visualize a double-helix-shaped television screen. Now spin that
screen at 10 rotations a second - fast enough to make it invisible to
the human eye. Put the double helix into a clear cylinder and stick a
mirror on top. Using red, green, and blue lasers - the same tripartite
colors used in ordinary television systems - you can project an image
onto the mirror and into the cylinder. The beam hits the helix and
creates a visible point of light. Currently there are 120,000 possible
points, called voxels (think 3-D pixels), that can be illuminated on
the helix, and the computer running the show is fast enough to change
the image up to 20 times a second."
http://www.wired.com/news/topstories/0,1287,920,00.html
Of course, you may have seen still holograms; work us under way to
make moving ones:
http://future.newsday.com/6/fholo13.htm
The above approaches are the unconventional ones; others involve
variations of the stereographic approach, providing a separate image
for each eye. An article (undated, but most likely from 1997) article
on 3-D technology outlines various approaches that could be used:
http://atwww.hhi.de/~blick/Papers/displays97/displays97.html
The same site (from mUltimo3D) has details of a proposed 3-D system:
http://atwww.hhi.de/~blick/Introduction/introduction.html
Several moniotors offering true 3-D are already available, but they're
pricey. At $7,500 for the monitor and twice that for a system, here's
one whose main market is for flashy displays rather than everyday use:
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,39005,00.html
Here's another 3-D system on the market:
http://www.nuvision3d.com/sites.html
And here's another one that involves a pair of LCDs, one stacked on
top of the other (so you see the images of both):
http://slashdot.org/articles/02/04/04/056201.shtml?tid=137
And another one ($7,000 for 21-inch display):
http://www.dti3d.com/products.asp
And another:
http://www.a1-electronics.co.uk/PcHardware/ScreenKeyMice/DTI_3Dscreens.shtml
And still another:
http://www.deepvideo.com/
So (while I haven't seen it yet) 3-D of various sorts already is here.
I don't know how good a position any of us are in terms of predicting
how soon it will be widely available. A few years ago, an optimistic
Federal Communications Commission set deadlines for the implementation
of HDTV, and the deadlines aren't being met.
You can read this essay ( http://www.hfac.uh.edu/MediaFutures/tv.htm )
of predictions made in 1994 about the future of TV. It was modified
in 1997 due to changes in technology. Look now and see how many
predictions are coming true; such things aren't always easy to
predict.
Even if the technology is developed to the point where the cost comes
down (which it will as it is mass-produced), there are two main
obstacles to widespread growth. One is some agreement on standards;
the other is availability of sufficient bandwidth.
Here are some predictions:
News of the Ultranet: "This (3-D and some other developments) we
probably won't see until second-generation wideband shows up later in
this decade, although such data rates are achievable now on various
private networks such as Internet 2."
http://www.megafoundation.org/UltraHIQ/HIQNews/News_of_the_Ultranet_Spring-2001.html
A former NBC executive sees the emphasis in the next 10 years on the
development of interactive TV, although he also sees a future for 3-D:
"I think the world of standards will be settled, which will be great
for both technology and content industries -- there will be an
interactive TV standard, and consumers will be used to getting a much
richer experience through their TV sets. Once technical standards are
set, content can begin to take advantage of it because without
standards, there won't be enough of an aggregated audience to make
interactive content a profitable venture."
http://www.ddd.com/aboutus/articles/hollywoodreporter_august01.htm
One forecaster sees 3-D coming soon:
"In the very near future, all new televisions will show pictures in
3-D and all television stations will broadcast the new 3-D signals.
This will come about just as color television developed, those who
have the new televisions will be able to use the 3-D signals broadcast
by the stations, but those with plain old color televisions will only
see the standard picture. The equipment, which requires no special
viewing glasses or special high technology, has already been invented.
All that remains to be done is perfection and marketing."
http://members.aol.com/oddwonder/future.htm
Here's my personal prediction, based on events of the fairly recent
past. The use of 3-D monitors will slowly become more commonplace,
first in some specialty applications (such as for high-tech medical
use) and then in games. It seems like games have driven the computer
technology, at least for home and office use, and I see no reason for
that to change.
As for TV, it will come, but not until HDTV saturates the market. One
advantage of the current standard for HDTV is that it has the
bandwidth to allow various options (such as the use of four broadcasts
on one channel), and very likely 3-D will be one of them done at first
on an experimental basis. But it's not going to happen until more
people have HDTV. It could come sooner of the liquid crystals
mentioned at the beginning of this story turn out to be the
breakthrough that the sound like.
I don't see 3-D TV replacing regular TV anytime soon. After all, we
used B&W TVs for more than a generation after color was developed, and
other developments have taken some time to take hold as well.
I hope this answers your question and that you enjoy the articles
linked to here.
Best wishes,
mvguy |
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