ceowang...
a. The four phases of the demographic cycle are:
Kondratiev spring, summer, fall and winter.
"If the idealized innovation waves in Figure 7 for different
new economies are combined into one overall curve, a biphasic
wave pattern is obtained (Figure 9). Rather than one boom and
one bust per Kondratiev cycle, as implied by the price cycle,
we see a pattern of two booms and two busts. These periods
have been termed Kondratiev spring, summer, fall and winter
by the market analyst P.Q. Wall."
See more of this thorough discussion by Mike Alexander, author
of 'Stock Cycles' and 'The Kondratiev Cycle' on the website of
'Communications for a Sustainable Future':
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/sec-modl2.htm#seasons
Mike's books are available for purchase here:
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/STOCK_CYCLES.htm
b. The characteristics of each phase are as follows:
"The secular bull market of an upwave stock cycle is Kondratiev
Spring.
The secular bear market of the same cycle is Kondratiev Summer.
The secular bull market portion of a downwave stock cycle is
Kondratiev Fall.
The secular bear market portion of the same cycle is Kondratiev
Winter."
See the following page for an expanded discussion,
also courtesy of Mike Alexander, on the CSF site:
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/sec-modl3.htm
The discussion is spread over 3 extensive webpages, starting here:
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/Sec-modl.htm
c. The forces which control the demographic transition process
include: war, fluctuations in population (baby booms and busts)
inflation, fluctuations in prices, levels of crime, alcohol use,
periods of high unrest and spirituality (social moments), the
growth of 'new economies', etc.
See Mike Alexander's discussion of these factors on the second
page of his dissertation on the CSF site, here:
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/sec-modl2.htm#seasons
Another excellent article by Mike Alexander is available on the
SafeHaven website for the 'Preservation of Capital':
http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/Alexander110602.htm
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