Dear tim34-ga;
Thank you for allowing me an opportunity to answer your interesting
question.
As you know, today’s world is a fluid and complex environment. The
international landscape tends change rapidly from day to day. One must
take into consideration the seemingly impending conflicts and the
possibility that certain restrictions in light of added dangers may
prevent them from doing some things that peaceful global conditions
would otherwise allow. Moreover, one must consider “Why” these
restrictions are put into place and make their own conclusions. Having
said that, there is no real way to know for certain if anyone at any
particular place is at increased risk of harm due to these factors. If
we knew this for certain, the threat would be addressed and the risk
itself would be greatly minimized. It is only logical to assume that a
certain amount of these threats are not being mentioned, while a
number of others are simply not known to us. The truth of the matter
is that we do not know, what we do not know, and vigilance, couple
with common sense, should dictate our decisions when it comes to the
welfare of our families.
Let me point out a few things that we DO know that should be logical
indicators that we are at increased risk in our travels:
On February 7, 2000, the US Homeland Security Department released a
statement, raising the American threat level from “yellow” (and
elevated risk of terrorist threat) to “orange” (a high risk of
terrorist threat). US Attorney General John Ashcroft said, in part:
“Recent reporting indicates an increased likelihood that Al Qaida may
attempt to attack Americans in the United States and/or abroad in or
around the end of the Hajj, a Muslim religious period ending
mid-February 2003.”
US Home land Security Secretary Tom Ridge said:
“We do recommend that individuals and families, in the days ahead,
take some time to prepare for an emergency.”
He went on to say:
"Well, what should we do? What does this mean for us?…all I would say
to you as a parent and a spouse is, take the time now to get informed.
There are so many available sources of information that you could
refer to that will give you and your family and your businesses and
your schools some comfort to know that in the eventuality, with the
possibility that something might happen, you have taken some
precautionary measures or taken some steps to minimize the damage or
perhaps to avoid it altogether.”
What was noticeably absent from this threat announcement was the
normal encouragement that citizens and travelers go about their
business as usual without regard to any perceived threat. What he did
say was this:
“We are not recommending that events be canceled or travel or other
plans be changed.”
…However, as you may have noted in the statement above, he wasn’t
quick to encourage it either as the Department normally has in the
past.
WHITE HOUSE
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030207-6.html
Here is what an “orange threat level” represents. Please not the
recommendation beside which I have placed an “X”. While the government
will not advise people to stay at home during this period, presumably
at the risk panicking consumers and harming the US economy, the threat
level clearly states that we should reconsider the need to gather in
high profile public places.
ORANGE
A High Condition is declared when there is a high risk of terrorist
attacks. In addition to the measures taken in the previous threat
conditions, federal departments and agencies will consider the
following protective measures:
Coordinate necessary security efforts with federal, state, and local
law enforcement agencies, National Guard or other security and armed
forces;
X - Take additional precautions at public events, possibly considering
alternative venues or even cancellation;
Prepare to execute contingency procedures, such as moving to an
alternate site or dispersing the workforce; and
Restrict access to a threatened facility to essential personnel only.
On Feb. 6, 2003, the US State Department issued this warning (I will
emphasize where necessary):
“The Department of State reminds Americans that U.S. citizens and
interests are at a heightened risk of terrorist attacks, including by
groups with links to Al-Qaida. Terrorist actions may include, but are
not limited to, suicide operations, assassinations or kidnappings.
While conventional weapons such as explosive devices pose a more
immediate threat in many areas overseas, terrorist use of
non-conventional weapons, including chemical or biological agents must
be considered a growing threat. These individuals and groups have
proved that they do not distinguish between official and civilian
targets. Because security and security awareness have been elevated
within the United States, terrorists may target U.S. interests
overseas. Private Americans should remain vigilant with regard to
their personal security and exercise caution.
Attacks on places of worship and schools, and the murders of private
American citizens and other westerners, demonstrate that as security
is increased at official U.S. facilities, terrorists and their
sympathizers will seek softer targets. THESE MAY INCLUDE FACILITIES
WHERE AMERICANS OR POSSIBLY OTHER FOREIGNERS ARE GENERALLY KNOWN TO
CONGREGATE OR VISIT, SUCH AS RESIDENTIAL AREAS, CLUBS, RESTAURANTS,
PLACES OF WORSHIP, SCHOOLS, HOTELS, OUTDOOR RECREATION EVENTS OR
RESORTS AND BEACHES. Americans should increase their security
awareness when they are at such locations, AVOID THEM, or switch to
other locations WHERE AMERICANS IN LARGE NUMBERS GENERALLY DO NOT
CONGREGATE. There is a possibility that American citizens may be
targeted for kidnapping or assassination.”
US STATE DEPARTMENT
http://travel.state.gov/wwc1.html
I suppose one might judge the safety of travel based on what is
evident. We must ask ourselves, “Will there be war, and if so, when?”
and “What are the potential indicators that might suggest war is
imminent?”
Consider this: The world has long known and predicted that if there
were to be war, it would most probably take place around the end of
February to mid-March because of the ideal weather conditions. One of
the last stages of preparation that has yet to be implemented is the
placement of troops in Turkey. Just yesterday (Feb 8) Turkey
reportedly agreed to accept 38,000 allied and US soldiers. The final
vote on this decision by the Turkish parliament is February 18, 2003.
Logically, then, nothing will probably occur before that date.
YAHOO NEWS
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=535&ncid=535&e=3&u=/ap/20030208/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq_4
On Feb. 7, 2003, the US State Department ordered its Consular
services, operating out of the Polish Consulate to close, effectively
ending non-essential US diplomatic presence in Iraq. It also advised a
number of foreign diplomats and their family members in the various
parts of the Middle East to leave. This is a reliable indicator,
indeed.
US STATE DEPARTMENT
http://travel.state.gov/iraq_warning.html
The bottom line is this – you now know what everyone else knows and
must make your own decisions. No one say for sure if certain events or
venues are at more risk of dangerous activity than others, but it is
only logical to assume that terrorists would select a rather high
profile venue over, say, a local potato festival in Idaho. From where
I sit in the US, if I had reason to doubt the prudence of visiting a
threatened, high profile area in Canada, I’d likely reschedule rather
than place myself at risk unnecessarily. In view of the current
circumstances, I’d certainly weigh the necessity of taking any risk
against the potential detriment of not taking the risk. If I didn’t
stand to suffer a serious loss from rescheduling an elective travel
activity that might put my family and me at risk, whether war was on
the horizon or not, I would probably do so.
Below you will find that I have carefully defined my search strategy
for you in the event that you need to search for more information. By
following the same type of searches that I did you may be able to
enhance the research I have provided even further. I hope you find
that that my research exceeds your expectations. If you have any
questions about my research please post a clarification request prior
to rating the answer. Otherwise, I welcome your rating and your final
comments and I look forward to working with you again in the near
future. Thank you for bringing your question to us.
Best regards;
Tutuzdad-ga
INFORMATION SOURCES
WHITE HOUSE
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030207-6.html
US STATE DEPARTMENT
http://travel.state.gov/wwc1.html
YAHOO NEWS
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=535&ncid=535&e=3&u=/ap/20030208/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq_4
SEARCH STRATEGY
SEARCH ENGINE USED:
Google ://www.google.com
SEARCH TERMS USED:
SAFETY US THEME PARKS
TERRORISM US THEME PARKS
FOXNEWS
DRUDGE REPORT
NEWSDAY
WHITE HOUSE
HOMELAND SECURITY
US STATE DEPARTMENT |
