I need to know if the australian dollar has been appreciating or
depreciating in relation to the american dollar over the last 6
months, and what is the likely forcast of AUD for the next year?

Hello Inga and thank you for your question.
 
The Australian Dollar has been appreciating in relation to the
American dollar over the last 6 months.

Here is a table of values for the year 2002 that illustrate this.

2002 - American Dollars to 1 AUD  (Average Rates by Month)
January      0.517052 USD   (21 days average) 
February     0.512716 USD   (19 days average) 
March        0.525552 USD   (21 days average) 
April        0.535295 USD   (20 days average) 
May          0.549823 USD   (22 days average) 
June         0.568155 USD   (20 days average) 
July         0.553800 USD   (22 days average) 
August       0.541433 USD   (21 days average) 
September    0.546480 USD   (20 days average) 
October      0.550236 USD   (22 days average) 
November     0.561435 USD   (20 days average) 
December     0.562414 USD   (21 days average) 

Source: X-Rates Currency Exchange
http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/AUD/hist2002.html


January 3 2003 the Australian dollar was at 0.563035 USD
Google cache: Yahoo News Asia
http://216.239.51.100/search?q=cache:qRQB-lE5HdkC:asia.news.yahoo.com/030102/4/orov.html+The++australian+dollar+2003&hl=es&ie=UTF-8

February 18, 2003 the Australian dollar was at  0.591116 USD
The Australian News: Dollar gains ground
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,6002484%255E1702,00.html


I located the following forecasts for the Australian dollar. 

Forecast: Value
U.S. Dollar per Australian Dollar Exchange Rate 
2003 Feb   .53
2003 Mar   .55
2003 Apr   .57
2003 May   .56
2003 Jun   .53
2003 Jul   .52

Neat Ideas: Financial Forecast Center
http://www.neatideas.com/ausd.htm

Anticipated Indicator Values 
US Dollar per Australian Dollar Exchange Rate
Feb 03 0.532 
Mar 03 0.495 
Apr 03 0.501
May 03 0.473
Jun 03 0.498
Jul 03 0.487

Source: Market Vector Exchange rates
http://www.marketvector.com/exchange-rate/ausd.htm


January 2003 “The Australian Outlook” published by Foreseechange
forecasting and futures consultants:

According to Foreseechange the Australian dollar is expected to remain
steady over the next 12 months.

Forecast: Australian Dollar (average for quarter)
Mar 03  0.560 
Jun 03  0.554  
Sep 03  0.551 
Dec 03  0.555
Mar 04  0.559
Jun 04  0.561

On Page 6 of this publication you can review a graph of historic
values and forecasts of the Australian dollar up to June 2004.
http://www.foreseechange.com/beforejan03.pdf


- “The Australian dollar rose slightly in late 2002, following
an upgrading of Australia’s debt rating and a cut in US
interest rates.

- The Australian dollar is expected to remain steady over
the next 12 months.

– Rising Australian interest rates and improved expectations for
world growth (reflected in commodity prices) could lift the $A
slightly.

– Rising US interest rates could bring about a fall in the $A.”

Source: The Australian Outlook January 2003
http://www.foreseechange.com/beforejan03.pdf


Additional information that may interest you:


Search Criteria:

Exchange Rates Australian Dollar
Forecasts Australian Dollar
Value Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar 2003


I hope you find this helpful and if there is anything that I've
written that needs clarification, please ask before you rate this
answer.


Best Regards,
Bobbie7-ga