How important was the Catholic vote to Bush's 'election'/

Hello.

The "Catholic vote" was very important to George W. Bush in 2000.
Although Al Gore actually took a larger share of Catholic votes, Bush
did better among Catholic voters than Bob Dole did in 1996 or George
H.W. Bush did in 1992. As such, White House strategists consider
Catholic voters a key "swing" constituency. However, some political
observers point out that the "Catholic vote" is very diverse and there
were key voting differences among white and Hispanic Catholics, as
well as between Catholics who attend Mass and those who do not.

Sources: 
The Washington Post, April 16, 2001, quoted on SFfaith.com:

"In the 2000 election, Bush made large gains among Catholic voters.
According to Voter News Service (VNS) exit polls, Bush lost the
Catholic vote to Al Gore by three percentage points, 50 to 47. In
contrast, Bill Clinton's margin among Catholics was 16 percentage
points in 1996 and nine points in 1992. "Wagner said those gains were
largely the result of Bush's success among the 42 percent of Catholics
who regularly attend Mass.
... 'Among religiously active Catholics, who have a discernible
political identity in contrast to the nonreligiously active, Bush won
by 55 percent to Gore's 24 percent,' Wagner wrote, citing private
polling by his firm, QEV Analytics, and Penn Schoen & Berland
Associates Inc. "This was the best Catholic showing for a Republican
presidential candidate since 1972, equal to Ronald Reagan's 1984
showing and better than his 1980 showing...."
SFfaith.com quoting from the Washington Post, April 16, 2001
http://www.sffaith.com/ed/news/0601news.htm

From the Kansas City Star:
"In 2000, Bush lost the Catholic vote to Gore by 2 percentage points,
markedly better than Republican Bob Dole's 16-point loss among
Catholics four years earlier."
Kansas City Star: 07/01/01 
"With an eye toward 2004, Bush works on broadening his support"
(STEVEN THOMMA)
http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/home.pat,local/3accca74.701,.html


From an article entitled "Battle for the bloc" on Salon.com:

"... For years Catholics were a reliable part of the Democratic New
Deal coalition. Clustered in the Northeast and Midwest,
disproportionately working class, often the victims of discrimination
by the WASP elite, as many as 70 percent of Catholics voted
Democratic.
Today, there are several different Catholic votes -- white ethnic
Catholics from the Midwest and Northeast, who have trended slightly
Republican, and a new generation of Hispanic Catholic voters, mostly
in the Southwest, who tend to favor Democrats. A smaller group of
black Catholics continues to be a reliable Democratic constituency.
And alongside racial and ethnic divisions, pollsters see other splits
in the Catholic bloc, most notably a relatively new division between
churchgoing Catholics, who are predictably more conservative, and
nonobservant Catholics, who tend to be more liberal..."
For more of this article, visit:
Salon.com "Battle for the bloc"
http://archive.salon.com/politics/feature/2001/07/30/catholics/

You might also be interested in this article: 
Coveting the 'Catholic Vote'
U.S. News & World Report, May 28, 2001 (costs $2.95)
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/archive/010528/20010528000099_brief.php

Also see:
The New Republic WHITE HOUSE WATCH Salvation
by Ryan Lizza 04.13.01,
Source: tnr.com, cached by Google
http://216.239.39.100/search?q=cache:h5xTXASGFyEC:www.tnr.com/042301/lizza042301.html+&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&client=googlet

search strategy: 
"catholic vote", bush, gore, "karl rove" 

I hope this helps.

CNN EXIT POLLS - 1996/2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

AllPolitics - Presidential Election Exit Poll Results - Part 1
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html

Religion
           All Clinton Dole Perot Clinton Dole Perot
Protestant 38   41     50    8     32      47   33
Catholic   29   53     37    9     31      27   27

Religion - Whites Only
           All Clinton Dole Perot Clinton Dole Perot
Protestant 56   36     53   10     46      65   55
Catholic   29   48     41   10     32      26   28


Results (2000 Election Exit Polls)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/epolls/US/P000.html

Vote by Religion
           All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
Protestant 54 % 42 % 56 %  0 %      2 %
Catholic   26 % 50 % 47 %  1 %      2 %

Religion - Whites Only
           All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
Protestant 56 % 34 % 63 % 1 %     2 %
Catholic   25 % 45 % 52 % 0 %     2 %

Among voters who expressed a religious affiliation, comparing the exit
polls for the 1996 and 2000 Presidential elections, the Republican
candidate improved his position with respect to voters who identified
themselves as Catholics in the year 2000 by ten per cent over the
portion of the electorate who identified themselves as Catholic in
1996, while the Democratic candidate in 2000 realized a three per cent
decrease in that same portion of the electorate. Most significant,
however, were the voters who had supported Perot in 1996. Thus, while
there was some measurable erosion of support from Catholics for the
Democratic candidate, there was a disproportionately larger increase
for the Republican candidate, which can be attributed to the return to
the Republican candidate of disaffected Catholic voters who had been
Perot supporters in 1996. Also, the Catholic segment of the total
electorate decreased between the elections.

hlabadie-ga