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Q: Probability of "Predators" ( No Answer,   3 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Probability of "Predators"
Category: Family and Home
Asked by: liner-ga
List Price: $5.00
Posted: 02 Apr 2003 10:39 PST
Expires: 02 May 2003 11:39 PDT
Question ID: 184969
The majority of folks in the US live in relatively safe areas.  Yet
today parents watch their children's activities, and give them a lot
less freedom than in "their" childhood.  And, when they get together
they talk about how much they wandered about their neighborhood,
unsupervised, when they were children.

So, was it REALLY safer in the (say) '50s?  Or did we simply not talk
about it as much, even though we knew not to let the kids around
"Uncle Joe".  And, was much of the predation upon children (sexually,
physically) simply not reported?

I would like to have reference to some reasonable authoritative
articles.  I am fully aware of the difficulties of getting good data,
but I would appreciate something more than anecdotal information.

Articles specifically relating to pedofile priests are not really of
interest unless they also address the safety of children in general.

Request for Question Clarification by justaskscott-ga on 02 Apr 2003 12:12 PST
Perhaps this is an answer to a different question, but I thought you
might be interested.  I have found a database where you can view, by
state or nationally, the number of offenses and crime rates -- both in
general and by violent or property crime -- for each of the years 1960
to 2000.  The data does not specifically mention children, or the
issue of underreporting of crime.  But comparing the statistics for
the early 1960s to those for the late 1990s, and years in between,
might give you a sense of the trends for certain types of crimes,
which you might extrapolate (even if somewhat imperfectly) to crimes
against children in particular.

You might want to wait to see if anyone else has a more direct answer.
 But if after a few days, you don't get a direct answer, would you be
interested in this indirect answer?

Clarification of Question by liner-ga on 02 Apr 2003 13:37 PST
I think that I would like to wait a while.  I have seen those
statistics in the past.  But having been around for a while, my own
experience tells me that, especially for those "shameful" things,
serious under reporting occurred.

The same might apply to things that are not allowed today, but were
overlooked then, especially in the area of physical abuse.

(I suspect that major crimes, such as murder, kidnapping and the like
have not changed much in reporting.)

I am trying to get an idea of whether much of today's worries are
perception or reality.
Answer  
There is no answer at this time.

Comments  
Subject: Re: Probability of "Predators"
From: knowledge_seeker-ga on 13 Apr 2003 10:02 PDT
 
Hi liner --

Your question is a really interesting one (I've had it bookmarked
since you posted it). As one of those people who was allowed to ride
my bike all over town in the 1960's, it's something that I've puzzled
over myself. I'm always interested in separating the reality from the
hype.

From what I've read on the subject, there is indeed more risk to
children today, but the issue is more than just one of crime
statistics. It has to do with declining levels of trust, social
capital and accountability within communities -- all numbers that have
been documented.

In its simplest form, it's not that there are necessarily more
pedophiles say, it's that you can no longer trust your neighbors to
step in and protect your child if they see something suspicious going
on.

A very interesting read that would help give you a deeper insight into
this complex issue is The Great Disruption by Social Scientist,
Francis Fukuyama.

I'm in the middle of the book now and find it incredible insightful,
not to mention carefully researched. And yes, there are plenty of
statistics on crime levels, child abuse, family breakdown, and other
issues which you wouldn't realize effect overall social capital, such
as fertility rates and income ratios.

The Great Disruption
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0684865777/qid=1050252874/sr=8-3/ref=sr_8_3/104-0022527-1339141?v=glance&s=books&n=507846


Hope you find the book useful --

--K~
Subject: Re: Probability of "Predators"
From: liner-ga on 16 Apr 2003 14:57 PDT
 
knowledge_seeker:  I have been thinking about your comments and I am
not sure I totally agree.  A couple of points, not totally on the
topic, but I think you see where I am going.

---50 years ago teen-age suicides were very commonly reported as
"accidental" to spare the family.  Today, although extremely sad,
suicides are identified hopefully to properly help friends and
acquaintences to deal with it better.  However, using statistics would
make it seem that teen suicide rates have skyrocketed.  Have they?  I
tend to doubt it.

---50 years ago spousal abuse was ignored.  Call the police and very
little would happen.  It was well known to exist:  Radio dramas
regularly depicted desparate wives trying to escape husbands, and "hen
pecked" husbands were very often used as comedy material on other
radio shows.

I seem to recall that there have been some studies trying to address
this question, and that is why I posed it here.  Hopefully I can find
some references to these studies.
Subject: Re: Probability of "Predators"
From: skorba-ga on 17 Apr 2003 17:09 PDT
 
These links may be of interest:

http://www.vachss.com/guest_dispatches/
http://www.vachss.com/help_text/index.html

If you are not already familiar with the site, The Zero is a good
starting point for research on child abuse.

Good luck!

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