Hi! Thanks for the question.
In order to answer your questions properly let us first look at the
outlook for the semiconductor industry. I will cite the most recent
reports in this answer.
Gartner Inc. says that there are some bright prospects for the
semiconductor industry this year.
“Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to grow 7.2
percent in 2003 to $30 billion, up from $27.8 billion in 2002.
Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is expected to total $17.5
billion, a 8.4 percent increase from 2002 revenue of $16.1 billion.
Packaging and assembly equipment is forecast to grow 21.4 percent to
$2.8 billion, up from $2.3 billion in 2002.”
"’Spending in 2003 will most likely be driven by a reduction of the
high degree of uncertainty in the business climate,’ said Jim Hines,
principal analyst for Gartner. ‘This will allow for calculated
business planning and, consequently, allow companies to move away from
worst-case preparedness toward calculated risk taking.’"
“Gartner Says Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending Outlook Remains
Positive in 2003”
Date of Report: APR 14, 2003
http://www.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/cb_headline.cgi?&story_file=bw.041403/231045250&directory=/google&header_file=header.htm&footer_file=
Our next articles cite the following semiconductors and types of
supplies that will likely face shortages.
“An official of domestic design house that mainly uses the Taiwanese
company's product said, ‘Inventories at most chip makers had already
ran out, and foundry orders are rushing in to secure products in
advance in preparation for peak demand in the second-half.’ He added
his company also received a message warning that the same shortage of
products as the one struck the entire world in 2000 can rerun.”
“UMC is also seeing increasing line activation rate for high voltage
special procedures that produce LCD driver IC (LDI). An official of
another design house that deals with UMC said, ‘Although the
activation ratio of CMOS standard process remains at the 70% level,
rise in demand for display-applied products such as 5V high-voltage
special procedure pushed the production capacities over their
limitation.’"
“Encouraging Signs of Rebound in Semiconductor Industry”
Date of Report: April 15, 2003
http://www.etienglish.com/news/detail_top.html?id=200304150007&art_grad=9
“Because only the Big Three so far have harnessed 0.13-micron
technology, Hu believes the return of demand will create a capacity
shortage at the leading edge. That shortage can translate into higher
profits, he said, underscoring the point that successful foundries are
those that make substantial, continuous investments in leading-edge
technology and research and development.”
“Sparring for business”
Date of Report: March 17, 2003
http://www.ebnonline.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=7800049
“Supply of 802.11g-draft standard wireless networking chips has
reportedly fallen short of demand, as suppliers were conservative in
projecting first-quarter demand.”
“802.11g chips face short supply”
Date of Report: April 15, 2003
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article.asp?datePublish=2003/04/15&pages=09&seq=48
“Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) may devote an
additional 8-inch fab – Fab 3, which currently runs on 0.18-micron
technology – to produce wafers using 0.13-micron technology due to an
anticipated capacity shortage.”
“TSMC’s clients have been moving towards 0.13-micron process
technology of late. Nvidia and Altera have raised the proportion of
their products adopting 0.13-micron processes, while domestic IC
design house VIA Technologies has also moved from 0.18-micron to
0.13-micron for its mainstream processors.”
“TSMC sees 10-20% capacity shortage at 0.13-micron node in 2H”
Date of Report: April 3, 2003
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article.asp?datePublish=2003/04/03&pages=06&seq=33
In terms of the US-Iraq war, Taiwan companies are not unanimous in
their assessment of the semiconductor industry after the US-Iraq war.
Hynix is more optimistic after the conflict in the Gulf.
“DDR products made by Hynix have been in shortage in Taiwan in the
past few weeks, according to local IC distributors. Anticipating the
US ruling, Hynix had increased shipments to the US, leaving less
available for other markets.”
“Local module makers have been projecting a brighter future for the
industry, saying that DDR prices will grow in the second quarter, when
the US-Iraq war is expected to end.”
“Hynix to increase DDR supply to Taiwan in mid-April”
Date of Report: April 8, 2003
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article.asp?datePublish=2003/04/08&pages=06&seq=31
Singapore firms Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd and ST
Assembly Test Services Ltd. meanwhile predicts a bleak outlook because
of the impact of the war plus the SARS virus scare.
“The outlook for Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd and ST
Assembly Test Services Ltd was clouded by both the impact of the Iraq
war and the deadly flu-like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus
sweeping Asia, analysts said.”
“’To a large extent, (Chartered and ST Assembly) are still suffering
because chip demand remains weak, but on a year-on-year and
(quarter-on-quarter basis), things are slightly better in the
industry,’ said G.K. Goh Research analyst Jatin Doktor.”
“Losses of chip firms to narrow”
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/4/15/business/chip14&sec=business
It seems that much of the report points to an overall improving
picture of the semiconductor industry this year. So there is still
hope for the inventory you have.
Search strategy used:
Searched at Google News for the terms: semiconductor shortage Iraq
I hope these links would help you in your research. Before rating this
answer, please ask for a clarification if you have a question or if
you would need further information.
Thanks for visiting us.
Regards,
Easterangel-ga
Google Answers Researcher |
