Hi majel,
As you'll see from the article below, a definite and accurate total of
all Iraqi's, both civilian and in the Republic Gaurd, that have died
as a result of the war will be hard to determine. But never fear, I
have some good estimates.
Based on the information and links below, the Republic Guard has lost
approximately a minimum of 10,000 soldiers. There have been somewhere
betweem 1,600 and 1,900 civilians that have died as a result of the
war.
So, 12,000 deaths is a fair estimate. I don't think it's any lower
than that, but the estimate might be off a bit.
References:
Iraqi Body Count
http://www.iraqbodycount.net/
Specifically a civilian body count and database. Clicking on the
"counter" will get you to the Database (linked just below) as well.
Click this link for the Database
http://www.iraqbodycount.net/bodycount.htm
Where are the casualities and the Iraqi army?
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/04/04/1048962923971.html
Death toll of Iraqi soldiers will be hard to determine. (The
Associated Press
April 9, 2003)
http://tinyurl.com/9u11 (note this is a cached google page, the
original expired)
..."WASHINGTON - The death toll of Iraqi soldiers is in the thousands,
but precisely how many have died is anyone's guess.
The Pentagon isn't doing estimates. The International Committee of the
Red Cross says hospitals in Baghdad, which are running out of drugs
and anesthetics, have gotten too busy to count.
Military analysts are divided: One says more than 10,000 uniformed
Iraqi soldiers will be dead at war's end. Another suggests the death
total will be half that. Others won't venture a guess.
"These are extremely rubber numbers," said Dana Dillon, a senior
analyst and retired Army major at the Heritage Foundation. "It's
difficult to verify, especially when you're dropping bombs on people
and you don't go back and count bodies."
Adding to confusion is Iraq's minister of information, Mohammed Saeed
al-Sahhaf, who says American and British soldiers are dying. They're
so demoralized, he said, that they're "beginning to commit suicide."
He also has insiisted that the coalition forces "will be burnt."
Information scarce
U.S. and British military officials are keeping close track of
coalition casualties; 91 American and 30 British troops have died in
the war. But most information about Iraqi troop casualties has
dribbled out, usually after individual fights or suicide bombings.
For instance, Capt. Philip Wolford, a company commander with the
Army's 3rd Infantry Division, estimated yesterday that at least 50
Iraqi fighters were killed when they sent buses and trucks full of
fighters across the Tigris River in an attempt to overrun U.S. forces
holding a strategic intersection on the western side of Baghdad.
Col. David Perkins of the 3rd Infantry said about 500 Iraqis took part
in the counterattack. They were a combination of special Republican
Guard, Fedayeen and Baath Party loyalists - "a lot of civilian-dressed
fighters," he said.
That assault on Baghdad followed weekend incursions into the capital -
a show of force that the Pentagon says left 2,000 to 3,000 Iraqi
fighters dead.
"It's a pure guesstimate," said Dan Goure, a military analyst at the
Lexington Institute. He said the Pentagon issued the number to
convince Iraqi fighters that the battle was lopsided and they should
put down their weapons.
"It may never be known how many Iraqis were killed by coalition
forces," Goure said. "It would have to be over 10,000 uniformed Iraqis
and more if you include the irregulars."
Estimates
Before the war began, government officials and independent military
think tanks estimated Iraq had 389,000 full-time, active-duty
military, including about 80,000 members of the Republican Guard. Iraq
also was believed to have 650,000 reserve troops and 44,000 to 60,000
paramilitary and security forces.
William Arkin, a private analyst and expert on the Iraqi military,
said the estimates, particularly about the Republican Guard, could be
misleading.
"They were undermanned as we saw by the ease with which we went
through them," Arkin said.
Arkin would only say that the Iraqi military losses would be in the
"many thousands." But he predicted the total would be lower than in
the first Gulf War when 10,000 to 15,000 Iraqi military deaths
occurred.
In the Gulf War, 300,000-plus Iraqi soldiers were bombed by U.S. and
coalition forces for 39 days with 10 times as many weapons as have
been used so far in this war, he said.
"There is no way to do the math and get to the number (of Iraqi
soldiers) killed in 1991," he said.
More than expected
Still, Arkin believes the Iraqi military death toll will be higher
than expected, and the number might have postwar implications.
The coalition has worked to minimize civilian casualties, Arkin said.
But if Iraqis perceive that their troop losses are disproportionate to
the number of American and British soldiers killed, they may think
"the United States was bloodthirsty" in its effort..."
Iraq Death Toll May Never Be Known by By Steve Wick - STAFF WRITER -
April 11, 2003
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny-wodead113216131apr11,0,2910081.story?coll=ny-worldnews-print
..."As of 1:30 p.m. New York time yesterday, U.S. military planners
said 103 Americans had been killed in the war. As for Iraqi
fatalities, it's anyone's guess.
Before the war began, U.S. military planners said Iraq had six
Republican Guard divisions, perhaps totaling 60,000 men. With the most
intense phase of the ground war now over, these officials say they
have no idea how many of these soldiers were killed. 5,000? 10,000?
It's an open question.
More than three weeks of bombing throughout the country almost
certainly produced hundreds of Iraqi civilian and military deaths, but
planners and experts say there will never be a final, complete and
accurate death toll from the aerial war because of the level of
destruction. Through Monday, the Iraqi government had given no figures
for its military losses, but said 1,252 civilians had been killed. The
U.S. military has not estimated the number of Iraqi civilian deaths
because of the difficulty of knowing how many people were in a
building that was struck, but said 2,320 Iraqi military had been
killed.
That any counting is going on by the U.S. surprises some observers.
Before the war started, high-ranking American officers said they would
not count the Iraqi military dead, or estimate civilian losses. They
cited the Vietnam War, where counting the dead produced a daily total
read on the evening news, as a public relations mistake. But experts
say the military, in a very limited way, is counting in those
instances when their forces overrun Iraqi positions.
"Yes, we are counting in this war, but it is very limited," said John
Reppert, a retired U.S. brigadier general who now teaches at the John
F. Kennedy School of Government in Boston. "But we will not know how
many Iraqis overall were killed, particularly in air strikes. It is
not knowable. We don't need to know, and the Iraqis will not be able
to know."
When U.S. forces leave Iraq, the exact number of U.S. dead, wounded
and missing will be known. Americans will want to bury their dead and
honor them on holidays. Iraqi dead are another story.
Reppert and others say the inability to come up with a final Iraqi
death total is a result of many factors, including the technology used
to attack the Iraqis and the lack of reliable information about how
many soldiers Iraq had before the war began.
"When this war is over, all anyone will be able to do, for both
civilians and military, is assign a range of numbers," said Alex
Roland, a professor of military history at Duke University.
"Individual U.S. commanders are reporting back numbers when they can.
I am surprised they are doing even that, because they said they
wouldn't."
The technology used also precludes an accurate count. How many people
were inside a building in downtown Baghdad destroyed by a "bunker
buster" bomb? Or inside the approximately 800 Iraqi tanks destroyed so
far?
"We all feel we have an obligation to count our own," said Scott
Silliman, a retired Air Force colonel and the director of the Duke
University Law School's Center for Law, Ethics and National Security.
"But we'll never know for the other side."
Copyright © 2003, Newsday, Inc..."
I hope this helps!
Sincerely,
--Cynthia
Search terms used at Google:
Iraq and "Republican Guard" casualities
Iraq and "Republican Guard" and "body count"
Iraq and "Republican Guard" and "death toll" |
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