Hello katteach,
The figures can vary, since they do to some extent depend on how long
offenders are followed-up.
I have found two articles which take into account the results of a
number of studies, and so present an overall picture of the situation.
The first article is a study, which analyzed the combined results of
61 previous studies on this topic (that sort of study is called a
meta-analysis). You can read the full text for yourself at
http://home.wanadoo.nl/ipce/library_two/han/hanson_98_frame.htm
The study, “Predicting Relapse: A meta-Analysis of Sexual Offender
Recidivism Studies” by R. Karl Hanson and Monique T. Bussiere of the
Department of the Solicitor General of Canada was published in
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1998, Vol. 66, No. 2,
pp 348-362.
The 61 studies came mainly from USA, Canada, and UK, with some also
from Australia and Scandinavia. The total number of offenders was
28,972. The average (mean) period during which the offenders were
monitored was 5.5 years (range was 6 months to 23 years).
Of the total number of offenders, 13.4% committed another sexual
offence. Rapists, of whom there were 1,839, had a rate of 18.9%,
while the rate for 9,603 child molesters was 12.7%. The study also
gives figures for other non-sexual offences committed by these groups.
The authors looked at factors which predicted whether someone would
reoffend sexually..
“Of the demographic variables, only age (young) and marital status
(single) were related to the sexual offense recidivism. The effects
were small but replicated across many studies…. Criminal lifestyle
variables appeared to be reliable, although modest, predictors… The
largest … were antisocial personality disorder… and the total number
of prior offenses… The risk .. was increased for those who had prior
sexual offenses…. victimized strangers, had an extrafamilial victim,
began offending sexually at an early age, had selected male victims,
or had engaged in diverse sexual crimes. Neither the degree of sexual
contact, or force used, nor injury to victims were significant
predictors… Sexual interest in children as measured by phallometric
assessment [ie if the person did or did not get an erection when shown
pictures if children] was the single strongest predictor…. Related
predictors included … sexual interest in boys as well as any deviant
sexual interest (assessed by diverse methods). Phallometric
assessments of sexual interest in rape, however, were not related to
recidivism.” Another important predictor was failure to complete the
treatment that had been arranged.
However, the authors found that the study did not support the common
belief that people who are sexually abused themselves are more likely
to commit sexual offences repeatedly.
The authors concluded: “For nonsexual offending, sexual and nonsexual
criminals seem much the same, but separate processes appear to
contribute to sexual offending. In particular, not all criminals would
be expected to have deviant sexual interests (e.g., sexual interest in
boys). Consequently, risk assessments should consider separately the
probability of sexual and nonsexual recidivism…. The present findings
contradict the popular view that sexual offenders inevitably
re-offend. Only a minority of the total sample (13.4% of 23,393) were
known to have committed a new sexual offense… This recidivism rate
should be considered an underestimate because many offenses remain
undetected (Bonta & Hanson, 1994). Nevertheless, even in studies with
thorough records searches and long follow-up periods (15-20 years),
the recidivism rates almost never exceeded 40%.”
The authors also give some statistics for the frequency of sex
offences in general: “Sexual assault is a serious social problem, with
high victimization rates among children (10% of boys and 20% of girls;
Peters, Wyatt & Finkelhor, 1986) and adult women (10-20%; Johnson &
Sacco, 1995; Koss, 1993a). Given the large number of victims, it is
not surprising that a significant portion (10-25%) of male community
samples (e.g., university students, hospital staff) admit to sexual
offending (Hanson & Scott, 1995; Lisak & Roth, 1988; Templeman &
Stinnett, 1991).”
If you look at the article at the URL I gave above, you can get the
full bibliographic details of the studies the authors are quoting
here.
The second article is a review of the literature: “Sexual Offence
Recidivism: Prediction versus understanding” by Don Grubin and Sarah
Wingate of University of Newcastle/Newcastle City Health Trust,
Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, published in Criminal Behaviour and Mental
Health, 1996, Vol 6, 349-359
You can read the full article here:
http://home.tiscali.nl/~ti137156/helping/articles/grubin_96.htm
The authors state: “Most sex offenders are not reconvicted for sex
offences…. a 1960s follow-up of over 2900 Danish sex offenders… in
which just 10% were convicted of another sex offence over a period of
12 to 24 years… A more recent UK report found that only 7% of a
randomly selected sample of over 900 sex offenders (men with either
current or past convictions for sex offences) released from prison in
1987 were reconvicted of a sex offence over the next four years.”
They also mention the study by Hanson and Bussiere described above.
They make the point that rates of re-offending are much higher among
the total group of male offenders (sexual + non-sexual): “50% over two
years and 60% over four… though in a 15 to 30 year Canadian follow-up
study of non-sexual criminals released from prison the recidivism rate
was over 80%”
With respect to high-risk offenders, “in a sample of over 300 sex
offenders who had committed more serious offences… it was found that
just 15% of rapists and about a third of child molesters were
reconvicted for a sex offence over the next 10 years.” And “a
large-scale research project in California designed to evaluate a sex
offender treatment programme for prisoners aimed at more serious
offenders has had difficulty in demonstrating any impact of treatment
because of the low base rate of reoffending in the non-treatment
controls: only 14% of 289 untreated child molesters and 14% of 80
untreated rapists followed for an average of about four years had been
rearrested.” They do however admit that these could be underestimates
of actual offences, because sex offences are often not reported.
The length of follow-up will affect the rates obtained: One study
“followed 174 men convicted of sex offences against girls under 13 for
24 years. They found that 11% of the sample had been reconvicted of a
sex or violence offence over a five-year at-risk period, but by the
end of the study the figure had increased to 18%, with no decrease in
the level of severity.” The authors mention another study of 191
child molesters followed for 15-30 years after release, of whom 35%
were reconvicted of a sexual offence. A quarter of the re-offences
occurred 10 or more years after release.
With respect to past behaviour, “recidivism rates in first offenders
range from 10% to 21% compared with rates of 33% to 71% in those with
past convictions” and “men with a history of sex offences were more
likely to be convicted of a sex offence over the next four years than
those with no history of sexual offending: 7% of released prisoners
with such a history were responsible for 31% of the subsequent sex
offence convictions”
Search strategy: I combined the phrases "child molesters" “sex
offenders” with the words reoffence or recidivism. |
