Hi there, Beatle.
The first thing I did was go straight to the U.S. Department of
Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics website. [
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs ]
This site has a huge amount of useful data available to the public
which made it very easy to quickly locate the information that you
needed.
The data available [
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/varstab.htm ] is not
concentrated on this particular range, only 14-17, 18-24 and 25+ so I
can only give you a very rough answer based on demographic data I also
obtained from the US Census website.
On the Homicide Trends page [
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/totalstab.htm ], we can
see that the overall homicide trend is at 5.5 for the year 2000, which
is the most recent data available.
Judging by the trend, this may be much lower now; possibly 5.3 or 5.2
of 100,000 people, which is roughly 0.055%-0.052% of the population.
Using this, we can apply the census information [
http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf (figure 3-18) ] which
shows that 6% of the population is aged between 20 and 30, white and
male which gives us a total percentage of 0.0033% of the entire US
population which was a victim of homicide, or a (very rough) estimate
of a 0.33 of 100,000 murder rate for this particular demographic
group.
I must stress that this is a very rough estimate though, neither the
Bureau of Justice Statistics or the Census database provides the exact
percentages or figures needed to make an accurate estimate.
I waded through a vast amount of information while researching this so
I have included a few quick facts that I found for you below.
There are approx 20 million males living in the US who are white and
aged between 20 and 30.
75% of all US citizens are white.
The total US population in 2001 was estimated at 284,796,887.
Regards,
errol-ga.
Google searches used:
"demographic statistics US"
://www.google.co.uk/search?q=demographic+statistics+US
"homicide statistics US for males 20 - 30"
://www.google.co.uk/search?q=homicide+statistics+US+for+males+20+-+30 |
Request for Answer Clarification by
beatle-ga
on
15 May 2003 19:00 PDT
I think you misunderstood my question. I phrased it in kind of a
complicated way. How likely a person is to be murdered over the coarse
of a year depends on what demographic group they're in. For instance,
I would imagine that young males are more likely to be murdered than
old women. The question I was asking was essentially "If you are a
white male in this age group, what are the chances that you'll be
murdered during the next year?" This can't be calculated from the
overall homicide rate. You need a separate homicide rate for white
males specifically.
|
Clarification of Answer by
errol-ga
on
15 May 2003 20:12 PDT
Hello again.
To make sure I get it correct this time, do you want to know if you
are more or less likely to be murdered if you are a white male between
20-30 than, for example, somebody in their teens who is also white and
male?
If it's just "how likely" overall, the 0.33 per 100,000 translates to
a 1 in 303030 chance of being a victim of homicide, or 0.00033%.
Remember that this is a rough estimate though, the data is more than
two years old now.
Thanks,
errol-ga.
|
Request for Answer Clarification by
beatle-ga
on
16 May 2003 01:09 PDT
All I want to know if how likely a white male age 20-30 is to be
murdered. If that's what you thought you were calculating, your math
is wrong. In my question, I said "Out of every 100,000 people in
**this demographic
group,** how many are murdered each year?" NOT "Out of every 100,000
people in any demographic group, how many are in this demographic
group and are murdered each year?"
|
Clarification of Answer by
errol-ga
on
16 May 2003 10:01 PDT
Hello again.
I understand the question now, I must have confused myself in all that
data!
Upon further research, I did manage to find some more detailed
information up to the year 2001 which sorts the data with the ages
20-24, 25-29, by race and by sex.
Unfortunately, the data is still not detailed enough to give an exact
figure, we have to guess once again.
In the Excel document [ http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_01/xl/01tbl2-5.xls
], we know the following facts:
- There were 3981 males aged 20-29 murdered in 2001.
- There were 1957 white people aged 20-29 murdered in 2001.
As you can see, the document does not explain how many of the males
were white so we have to guess at a figure by using the amount of
white males 20-30 that there are in the country compared to black
males 20-30.
From the census, we can see that roughly 8% of the population is
black, male and aged 20-29 as opposed to 6% of white males aged 20-29
so black males outnumber the white males 4-3 which translates to
2274.85 of these 3981 total murders being black and 1706.14 were white
males.
So, we can guess that there were roughly 1706 white male 20-39 murders
in 2001 which gives us an estimate of 5.99 of 100,000 murder rate.
Hope this helps,
errol-ga.
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