Hello there
We could begin with a good "rule of thumb" which states southern
Caribbean islands have fewer hurricanes than northern islands. From
USA Today - http://www.usatoday.com/weather/huricane/whclimo.htm
The table below shows the probabilities of any hurricane and of a
major hurricane with winds of 111 mph or faster passing within 75
miles of the locations listed in any one year. These numbers are a
measure of relative danger.
For example, Barbados has an 8.3 chance of any hurricane passing
within 75 miles in any one year and a 2.3 chance of actually being hit
by a major hurricane.
Antigua - - - - - - - - - - - 20.0 - - - 6.7
Barbados - - - - - - - - - - -8.3 - - - - 2.3
Bonaire - - - - - - - - - - -2.2 - - - - 0.6
Kingston, Jamaica - - - - - - 14.3 - - - 5.9
Nassau, Bahamas - - - - - - - 22.2 - - - 9.1
San Juan, Puerto Rico - - - -12.4 - - - - 4.2
Santo Domingo, Dom. Republic -11.1 - - - - 3.9
U.S. Virgin Islands - - - - - 16.7 - - - -5.9
Here is a chart giving hurricane analyses (including strength of
storms) in five year increments since 1944.
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/5year.htm - From Stormcarib.com
Hurricane activity in the Caribbean for the last ten years. The
figures below are from City database for hurricane landfalls
http://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm
Antigua
1995 hurricane Luis hits with 140mph winds press 27.88 4 hotels washed
into the sea hospitals & homes destroyed
1996 hurricane Bertha passes to north causing some minor roof damage
1998 hurricane Georges passes nearby with 110mph winds causing
moderate to heavy damage here ,2 deaths,Flooding along south coast
towns,Caused Island wide power outage. Hundreds of roofs ripped off.
1999 hurricane Jose hits direct with 100mph winds.Many homes damaged
unconfirmed reports well over 100mph winds press 29.05 moving N.W @
12mph.Sustained near 80mph.
Last storm - - On Aug 22nd 2000 T.S Debby brushes just north with
70mph winds .
Total - 4 hurricanes - 1 tropical storm
August - 1 storm
Barbados
1995 hurricane Marilyn to north with 75mph winds minor damage.
Last storm - - T-Storm Lily brushes to south with 50 mph winds. 135
homes damaged as roofs blow off
Total - 1 hurricane - 1 tropical storm
Dominica
1995 hurricane Marilyn hits with 80mph winds area reports sustained
winds of 72mph for 10 minutes,some roofs blown off.
Last storm - - In 1996 tropical storm Hortense brushes 40 miles to the
north with 60mph winds dumping heavy rain.
Total - 1 hurricane - 1 tropical storm
Guadeloupe
1998 hurricane Georges brushes well to the North moderate damage on
north coast
Last storm - - Tropical-Storm Lenny brushes just N.E by 40 miles with
70mph winds causes very heavy wave damage on west coast as lenny was
pulling away.5 killed here.
Total - 1 hurricane - 1 tropical storm
Martinique
1995 hurricane Marilyn causes moderate damage to area
Last storm - Tropical.Storm Jerry passes approx 55 miles to the west
with 50mph winds 2001.
Total - 1 hurricane - 1 tropical storm
Saint Lucia
1994 Tropical Storm Debby destroys 60% of Banana crop.
Last storm - Brushed by T.S Chantal on August 17th ,2001 with 40mph
winds .
Total - 0 hurricanes - 2 Tropical storms
August - 1 storm
Saint Martin
1995 hurricane Luis badly hit the area leaving 1,000 homeless 14
killed by 140mph winds press 27.61
A week later hurricane Marilyn brushes to the south & west with 105mph
winds
1996 hurricane Bertha hits with 80mph winds causing some roof damage
press 29.08 city of Grand case lost most buildings on NE corner of
island
1999 hurricane Jose hits with 100mph winds press 29.23 minor damage
reported due to the fact that jose was in a weakening mode many trees
down minor roof damage.70mph sustained winds here
1999 Hurricane Lenny pounds the island with 120mph winds as Lenny sat
over the island in a weakening mode for 24 hrs before moving on.South
facing beaches took a beating.13 killed here & now insurers on the
island are either cancelling policies & drastically raising rates due
to 5 hurricanes in 7 years.Tourism is pretty much shut down for the
winter on the island as a result of hurricane Lenny.
Aug 22nd 2000 Hurricane Debby hits just north with 75mph winds causing
minor damage here while moving wnw at 21mph.
Last storm - Aug 22nd 2000 Hurricane Debby hits just north with 75mph
winds causing minor damage here while moving wnw at 21mph.
Total - 6 hurricanes
August - 1 storm
Saint Vincent
2002 T-Storm Lily hits just south with 60mph winds.
Total - 1 Tropical Storm
Virgin Islands
1995 hurricane Marilyn hits with 110mph winds causing heavy damage 40%
homes destroyed & 80% of businesses were destroyed, 1 year later only
2,700 out of 4,000 rooms were available
1996 hurricane Bertha on july 8th brushed by 1 school collapsed some
roof damage from 85mph winds press 29.03
1998 hurricane Georges with 110mph winds just south causes 55 boats to
sink in the virgin islands & causes wide spread power outages.
Aug 22nd 2000 Hurricane Debby brushes just north with 75mph winds
causing minor damage.
Last Storm - Aug 22nd 2000 Hurricane Debby brushes just north with
75mph winds causing minor damage.
Total - 4 hurricanes
July - 1 storm - August 1 storm
Bahamas
1995 hurricane Erin stays over thae island as a cat 1 for several
hours with 85mph winds pressure 29.12 minor damage .
1999 August 27th hurricane Dennis passes just N.E hitting Abaco island
with 80mph winds minor damage on Grand Bahamas island.
1999 hurricane Floyd brushes 30 miles east of east end grand bahama
with 145mph winds cuases minor damage here due to eye wall reforming &
being on weaker west side.some storm surge flooding did occur
Last Storm - 1999 sept 14th hurricane Floyd brushes 30 miles east of
east end grand bahama with 145mph winds cuases moderate damage here
due to eye wall reforming & being on weaker west side.some storm surge
flooding did occur as many homes on east end had a 3 ft storm surge.
Total - 3 hurricanes
August - 1 storm
Cayman Islands
2002 T-Storm Isidore hits just north with 65mph winds dumping heavy
rain here. - - That was also the last storm.
Total - 0 hurricanes - 1 Tropical Storm
Bermuda
Even though Bermuda is not in the Caribbean, I am including it as
"related" material.
1995 hurricane Felix with 80mph winds brushes 75 miles to the S.W area
had gusts to 75mph.
2001 substropical storm Karen hits before becoming tropical with
sustained winds on Bermuda of 60mph with gusts to 100mph. System
caused power outages 23,000 without power,trees down & a cruise ship
to break it's moorings.Very high winds recorded for over 24 hrs.Karen
would later become a hurricane while moving away
Last Storm - 2001 substropical storm Karen hits before becoming
tropical with sustained winds on Bermuda of 60mph with gusts to
85mph.system caused power outages,trees down & a cruise ship to break
it's moorings.Very high winds recorded for over 24 hrs.Karen would
later become a hurricane while moving away.
Total - 1 hurricane - 1 Tropical storm
Cuba
1996 hurricane Lili brushes 50 miles to the S.E this slow moving
hurricane caused heavy crop damage & some structural damage & very
heavy rain.At least 20 homes collapse in Matanzas east of Havana .
1996 hurricane Irene hits with 75mph winds while moving north causes
minor damage here.2 killed in west cuba.
Last storm - 2001 Hurricane Michelle brushes approx 75 miles to the SE
with 135mph winds.
Total - 3 hurricanes
Dominican Republic
1996 hurricane Hortense brushes to NE with 75mph winds while moving NW
1998 hurricane Georges hits with 120mph winds killing 200 in the
dominican republic causing heavy damage while moving west.
Last Storm - In 1998 hurricane Georges hits direct with 120mph winds
many killed here & area was hit hard as Georges moved west
Total - 2 hurricanes
Jamaica
0 reported hurricanes or tropical storms last ten years.
Haiti
Same stats as Dominican Republic.
Puerto Rico
1996 hurricane Hortense 80mph winds well to the south causes very
heavy rain 20 inches kills 19 in P.R brushes 60 miles to the S.W san
juan gusts to 70mph
1998 hurricane Georges 115mph over entire island just south of san
juan causes 2 bill dollars damage killing 12,heavier damage was to the
east of here. In Puerto rico over 28,000 homes destroyed & 72,000
damaged
Last storm - August 22nd 2001 T-Storm Dean forms 55 miles north of
here & moves away causing some flooding .
Total - 2 hurricanes - 1 Tropical storm
August - 1 storm
I have identified those storms which took place in July and August as
per your request. If you are thinking of traveling during those
months, you should have little to worry about.
As for your specific question as to which island had the fewest - the
answer is Jamaica.
As for the website from which I took the above figures, you may like
to visit it as it is jampacked with additional information.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm
Search - Google
Terms - hurricane statistics, caribbean hurricane statistics
If I may clarify anything before you rate the answer, please ask.
Cheers
digsalot |
Clarification of Answer by
digsalot-ga
on
23 May 2003 03:23 PDT
Statistics based on the likelyhood of hurricanes at any given location
are compiled on a yearly basis. However, the chances of a storm
hitting during the months you ask about, July and August should be
much lower than the chances for a whole year. As you can see from the
listings provided, July and August are not all that active. The
chances for a storm during that time would be reflected by the overall
yearly statistics.
A five island statistical order for the least chance of hurricanes
from lowest to highest - Bonaire - Barbados - Dominican Republic -
Puerto Rico - US virgin Islands
The highest probability of all is the Bahamas. That gets to be a
little confusing as some sources list the Bahamas as "Caribbean" and
others list the Bahamas as "Atlantic Ocean" islands. But either way,
they have the highest probability of all.
Of those islands which are clearly Caribbean, then it would be
Antigua.
Surprisingly enough, Jamaica, which has not recorded a hurricane or
tropical storm in the last ten years has a 14.3 percent chance of
being hit by a hurricane in any given year.
In the last ten years, Antigua had 1 August storm, Saint Lucia had 1
August storm, Saint Martin had 1 August storm, the Virgin Islands had
1 July and 1 August storm, Bahamas 1 August storm, Puerto Rico 1
August storm. There have been 7 storms in July (1)and August(6)during
the last ten years.
As you can see, two islands on the above list are also included in the
list of least likely but it does not change the likelyhood statistics.
If I am somehow missing the point of your question, please let me know
and I will try again.
Cheers
digs
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