Statistically, what are the chances that a 34-year-old, eligible,
never-married woman will marry by age 37? By "eligible" I mean she has
no physical, psychological, character, personality, moral, family, or
other defects that render her empirically undesirable.

If not statistically, then anedotally.

If not anecdotally, then jokes and wry comments.

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Clarification of Question by shikibobo-ga on 27 May 2003 20:04 PDT

czh-ga, you certainly earned the money even if you didn't technically
answer the answerable (and irrelevant) question.

---

Clarification of Question by shikibobo-ga on 27 May 2003 20:06 PDT

clarification of clarification - should read "UNanswerable"

Hello shikibobo-ga,

Thank you for accepting my comment as the answer.

------------------

I’m not posting this as an answer because I couldn’t find any
statistics for predicting the marriage prospects for 34 year olds to
be married by age 37. In researching the question it became clear that
the marriage statistics can vary significantly by geography. Here are
some samples from a variety of countries. The last entry is for United
Nations statistics for 107 countries. Please let me know if this
information will meet your needs and I’ll post it as the answer.

Enjoy!

czh

http://www.vs.gov.bc.ca/stats/pdf/marr98.pdf
Marriage Related Statistics – British Columbia
See especially Tables 47-48 for age distribution

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf
Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 1996
This is a 20 page report from the US Census Bureau that shows a
variety of marriage and divorce statistics for age cohorts.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/545B78DCDF028C71CA2569BB00164F62?Open
Australian Social Trends 1997
Family - Family Formation: Age at first marriage
Since 1974 the median age at first marriage of bridegrooms and brides
has increased by four years. An increasing proportion of first
marriages involve women marrying younger men.

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdbdemo/cdb_years_on_top.asp?srID=15015&crID=36&yrID=1990
Marriages by age group of bride – Australia

http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/02/02/30/ekteskap_en/main.html 
Norway -- Population statistics. Marriages and registered
partnerships, 2001
Older brides and bridegrooms
The average age for those who marry for the first time is still
increasing slowly but surely. While the women who got married for the
first time in 2001 on average were 29.3 years old, the first-time
grooms were 32.0 years.

http://www.glocom.org/special_topics/social_trends/20021003_trends_s9/
Japanese Marriage Trends in 2002: Later Unions and More Diverse
Families
In 2001, the mean age of a couple marrying reached an all time high of
28.1 years. The average age of the bride tying the knot was 27.2 years
and the corresponding figure for the groom was 29 years.*


http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdbdemo/cdb_series_xrxx.asp?series_code=15015
Series name and code
Marriages by age group of bride [code 15015]
Series long name
Marriages classified by age of bride; Country data as compiled by
UN/DESA/SD - DSB
Data Availability
107 countries 1986-1990


SEARCH STRATEGY
marriage age statistics
marriage statistics census
age first marriage

I was told once (not by a statistics professor) that the probability
of any event is either 0% or 100% - it will either happen or it won't
- which probably applies here. I remember the "after 30, forget it"
article and am glad to hear its science was discredited.

I think her chances for marriage are inversely proportional to the
number of cats she owns by that age. *snicker*

skermit-ga

I think that it verys on the woman.  Some women want to get married
ASAP, others want a career first.  Maybe, this woman had a bad
experience with her parents marriage and that has turned here away
from marrage.  Have you thought about asking her, what her feelings
towards marrage is?  You can probably get your answer towards marrage
from her answer.

And next on, 'Questions for the Ages'  what is the likelihood in me
finding karma?


:-)  Not to make too much light of this, but you ask a tough question.
  What you haven't included in these factors are really critical
things like:

1) The number of cats (>ducks<)
2) The standards of the woman -- i.e., does it suffice that an
eligible bachelor is breathing, or must he be employed?   Must he be
good looking, or can he merely be presentable with proper
bag-adornment?
3) The ammount of searching said woman has in the past applied to the
search, and plans to apply to future searches.
4) Whether mothers are involved (Much like cats, this drastically
changes and alters any statistical figures if there is an overbearing
mother involved)
5) Whether the assistance of a yenta or other matchmaker is factored
into the equation?
6) Along the lines of #2, whether there are restrictions based on
religion?

I have two close female friends who married in their late 30s, to
wonderful men.  The options are out there, it just takes some finding
(both men happen to be technical oriented folk).

(Go geek?) 

Bitmaven-ga

A database of probabilities is certainly a "bakable" idea according to
this website:  http://www.halfbakery.com/idea/What_20are_20the_20chances_3f
 Whether one of these animals exist at this time is debatable.

Greetings, shikibobo!

A woman I know waited a VERY long time to find the right guy (kissing
a lot of frogs in the process). She was 32 when she finally did meet
him, and 37 when they finally married (with a few breakups during the
intervening time). And since she includes ALL of the defects you
listed above, it's just proof that there is always hope for ANYONE.

Rather than worry about statistical probability of marriage, the best
way to find a life partner is to cease having that as a goal. Instead,
one should live their life to the fullest, doing the things that they
enjoy, developing strong friendships, and seeking new experiences.
Doing those things is the BEST way to ensure that one will meet
someone who is compatible -- and believe me, they'll waltz in to your
life and love will whap you upside the head when you're least
expecting it.

The one thing for which an older person -- male OR female -- needs to
be prepared is the massive lifestyle change that comes with entering a
serious relationship (or marriage) after years and years of being
accustomed to doing what they want, when they want, and how they want.
It is a great deal of hard work to become accustomed to being
considerate of someone else's feelings, needs, and schedule (the
aforementioned woman still struggles with this every day). However,
the reward for that effort can be very great.

Best Wishes,

ace

In 1980, I married for the first (and only) time at the age of 32. I
was empirically undesirable in the extreme, except for the odd fact
that one extraordinary man found me worthy of his devotion.

My life experience tells me that just when you think it is "too late,"
God surprises you :)  I don't believe it's ever to late. People get
married at all ages!

A woman without any of the mentioned "defects", who is still
relatively young, never married, and (I am assuming) has no children
sounds like a real catch!  Even if she has a few cats.  Many men would
love to meet someone like that, including me!  :-)

You may find this interesting:

"Newsweek Magazine's cover story for June 2, 1986 demoralized single
women throughout the nation. The article claimed that if you are 30
years old, college-educated, and never been married, that you only
have a 20% chance of ever finding a husband. If you reach age 35
without a spouse, your chances drop to 5%. And if you have the
misfortune of being single at 40, according to Newsweek you have a
greater chance of 'being killed by terrorists' than finding a husband.

The Newsweek article was based on a study by two professors at Harvard
and Yale Universities. Fortunately the figures have been discredited
by the U.S. Census Bureau..."

http://www.datingclass.com/articles/dating-rules.shtml

Hello shikibobo-ga,

I’m not posting this as an answer because I couldn’t find any
statistics for predicting the marriage prospects for 34 year olds to
be married by age 37. In researching the question it became clear that
the marriage statistics can vary significantly by geography. Here are
some samples from a variety of countries. The last entry is for United
Nations statistics for 107 countries. Please let me know if this
information will meet your needs and I’ll post it as the answer.

Enjoy!

czh

http://www.vs.gov.bc.ca/stats/pdf/marr98.pdf
Marriage Related Statistics – British Columbia
See especially Tables 47-48 for age distribution

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf
Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 1996
This is a 20 page report from the US Census Bureau that shows a
variety of marriage and divorce statistics for age cohorts.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/545B78DCDF028C71CA2569BB00164F62?Open
Australian Social Trends 1997
Family - Family Formation: Age at first marriage
Since 1974 the median age at first marriage of bridegrooms and brides
has increased by four years. An increasing proportion of first
marriages involve women marrying younger men.

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdbdemo/cdb_years_on_top.asp?srID=15015&crID=36&yrID=1990
Marriages by age group of bride – Australia

http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/02/02/30/ekteskap_en/main.html 
Norway -- Population statistics. Marriages and registered
partnerships, 2001
Older brides and bridegrooms
The average age for those who marry for the first time is still
increasing slowly but surely. While the women who got married for the
first time in 2001 on average were 29.3 years old, the first-time
grooms were 32.0 years.

http://www.glocom.org/special_topics/social_trends/20021003_trends_s9/
Japanese Marriage Trends in 2002: Later Unions and More Diverse
Families
In 2001, the mean age of a couple marrying reached an all time high of
28.1 years. The average age of the bride tying the knot was 27.2 years
and the corresponding figure for the groom was 29 years.*


http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdbdemo/cdb_series_xrxx.asp?series_code=15015
Series name and code
Marriages by age group of bride [code 15015]
Series long name
Marriages classified by age of bride; Country data as compiled by
UN/DESA/SD - DSB
Data Availability
107 countries 1986-1990

Thanks very much shikibobo-ga for the five stars and tip. This was a
fun question to research and I'm glad you found the results
interesting.

czh