I will be speaking at my parents' 50th (Golden Wedding) anniversary
reception this Friday and I would like to provide some simple /
interesting information about how many married couples reach this
pinnacle. North American information would be fine. Canadian info
would be nice as well.

---

Request for Question Clarification by markj-ga on 01 Jul 2003 14:40 PDT

swifty2003 --

I have found authoritative information that is precisely on point,
except that it relates to U.S. marriages only.  I have been unable to
find comparable information about Canadian marriage longevity.

If no researcher can provide you with Canadian information before your
Friday deadline, I would be happy to post my information as an answer
with your permission.

markj-ga

---

Clarification of Question by swifty2003-ga on 01 Jul 2003 17:00 PDT

Hi Markj;

I guess it may have been too much to expect a breakout for Canadian
information as well.

If the data you've come up with is simply gross US figures, as opposed
to a % figure, I don't think I'd be able to tailor my comments too
easily.
  
If somewhere in what you've discovered is a relatively recent % figure
I suppose I could try and extrapolate it to my Canadian
audience...since we're probably not all that different ;-). So please
go ahead and post what you've got if the data includes a percentage.
i.e. something like " x % of married couples reach their 50th wedding
anniversary".

Thanks.
Swifty2003

swifty2003 --

Thanks for your clarification.  I do indeed have a percentage figure,
and I am happy to be able to contribute something to Friday's
celebration.

According to the most recent statistics compiled by the U.S. Census
Bureau:
"About 52 percent of currently married couples had reached at least
their 15th anniversary in 1996, and 5 percent of them had reached at
least their golden anniversary (50 years)."

I doubt very much whether better or even comparable data exists for
the U.S. or for the North American continent, because, according to
that press release:

"The report is the Census Bureau's first comprehensive portrait of
marriage and divorce in nearly 10 years and, unlike other data
sources, provides estimates for men's and women's marital patterns
through their lifetimes."
U.S. Department of Commerce News: Press Release (February 8, 2002)
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2002/cb02-19.html

Here is a link to a copy of the text of the report in PDF format:  
"Number, Timing and Duration of Marriage and Divorces: 1996":
http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf

(You will need Adobe Reader to display the document.  If it is not
installed on your computer, you can download it at no cost here:
http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html )

The Census Bureau Report discusses marriage longevity on page 7, and
Table 7 on page 12 breaks down the results by anniversary (15th, 20th,
etc.) and by race and ethnicity.


Search Strategy:

Finding the report required a variety of Google searches because of
the difficulty of choosing the right search terms. The search that was
successful, turning up the Census Bureau report as its seventh result
out of 78,000, was:

marriages 50 OR fifty OR 50th years percent
://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=marriages+50+OR+fifty+OR+50th+years+percent


Good luck on your speech, and my congratulations to your parents on
their big day.


markj-ga

---

Clarification of Answer by markj-ga on 02 Jul 2003 08:26 PDT

swifty2003 --

The commenter is correct that my answer is not responsive to the
specific form of the question that you posed in your clarification.
(It would have been responsive if you had rephrased the question to
read "x% of married couples 'have reached' their 50th wedding
anniversary.")

I failed to notice that distinction because I was focusing on the more
general language of your question, which seeks some "simple/general
information about how many married couples reach this pinnacle."  I
believe that my answer provides that information in the only form in
which it is reliably calculable.

I am not a statistician, but I suspect that the only way to estimate
how many marriages occurring 50 years ago today are still intact would
involve calculations based on the average age of marriage partners in
July 1953, divorce rates for all the intervening years, and complex
actuarial information that would not exist for other purposes.  I very
much doubt that such claculations exist, and I certainly found nothing
of that sort in my substantial search.

Again, in light of the wording of your clarification, I apologize for
assuming that my answer was responsive to your needs.  If you believe
that it is not completely satisfactory, I would appreciate a
clarification request to that effect before rating the answer, and I
will have it withdrawn.

markj-ga

Just to be clear to the asker, this answer was not exactly responsive
and you should understand what it means.  The answer includes that 5%
of couples currently married have been married 50+ years. This DOES
NOT give any indication of what % of couples reach 50 years.  I hope
the difference is clear and that the researcher will be able to find a
source for the information you were looking for.

I don't think there is that much statistics involved here. You would
need to pick a time frame and have access to marriage lengths of
marriages during that time frame and then look at the % that were 50+
years.
The number of people who have reached their golden anniversary
includes everyone who's been married 50 years, 51, 52, 53... so there
is nothing magical about statistics from July 1953.
Regardless, it is an achievement and you should be proud of your
parents!