I'm trying to gather material that will provide me with some estimates
regarding the projected growth of Crude Oil and Crude Oil Products in
China and in India in the next ten years. Research should be not only
on the demand side but also on the supply side meaning, some
information about the growth in refining capacity in these countries
as well.

<India.
According to the India Government, growth in demand for petroleum
products in India has been on average 6 percent in the last 15 years.
The demand for crude oil is predicted to increase from 112 million
metric tonnes to 190 million metric tonnes by 2011/12.  Demand for
petroleum products is expected to increase to 368 million metric
tonnes by 2024/25.

Refining capacity is currently 112.54 million tonnes annually. Five
new refineries are planned which will add a further 40.5 metric
tonnes. There are also plans to expand the capacity at several
existing refineries. The government aims to maintain the refining
capability of India at around 90 percent of its requirements of middle
distillates. http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2001/rsep2001/19092001/r190920012.html

Refining capacity is expected to grow 50% by 2006/7
http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/oilandgas/india_downstream/profile/overview.shtml

Details of new refineries planned.
http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/oilandgas/india_downstream/opportunities/opportunities.shtml

Capacities of new refineries and details of demand for middle
distillates.http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/SSG/dd75894e.html


China.
China’s consumption of crude oil has grown 6 percent per year over the
last decade. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200204/18/eng20020418_94328.shtml

According to a report by Dr. Sizhi Guo (The Institue of Energy
Economics, Japan), China’a Net oil imports in 2001 were 81.71 million
metric tons. It is predicted that China will face an oil shortage of
155-187 million metric tons in 2010 and 240-295 million metric tons in
2020.
http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:P90-eYqMPPkJ:eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/data/pdf/157.pdf+%22crude+oil%22+china+growth&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

China's annual demand for gasoline, kerosene and diesel is likely to
reach 124.86 million tons by 2005 and 147 million tons by 2010.
http://www.chinasxq.net/english/links/sp/12.htm

China’s crude demand – predictions to 2020
http://www.chinaogp-online.com/hottopic/

An analysis of the current situation in China.
Due to the government imposing lower limits on sulphur content in
petroleum, the Chinese demand for sweet crude oil has increased.
Current refineries are unable to make the low sulphur petroleum using
heavy crude. New refineries need to be built.
A graph shows a comparison of refining capacity against production for
the period 1995 – 2002.
http://www.oil-gasoline.com/default.asp?id=645

Sinopec Corp is the largest refiner of crude oil in China. In 2002 it
processed 105 million tonnes of crude oil.
http://www.sinopec.com.cn/english/en-ir/stock.jsp
http://www.sinopec.com.cn/english/en-business/1218.html

Sinopec Corp is planning to build an 8 million metric ton a year
refinery in Guangxi region. Construction is planned to begin at the
end of 2004 and completed by the start of 2008. In addition a crude
oil tank farm will be built in Beihai to accommodate imports of crude
oil for the refinery.
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030721/0505000532_1.html

Ten small refineries will be closed and replaced by a 10 million-ton a
year refinery in Quingdao, Shandong by the end of this year. The
larger refinery will provide greater efficiency.
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030718/0357000164_2.html

Chinese refineries.
http://www.pnl.gov/china/sinopec.htm

Consumption of gasolines, middle distillates, fuel oil and others.
http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/pagedownloads/T_oil_reg_cons.pdf


China imports crude oil from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria.
http://fpeng.peopledaily.com.cn/200204/12/eng20020412_93906.shtml

China agrees to buy up to 5.13 billion barrels of Russian oil between
2005 and 2030.
http://www.china.org.cn/english/2003/May/65655.htm
http://www.petroleumworld.com/story1712.htm

China has discovered 13 billion metric tons of oil and gas in Tibet.
://www.google.com/search?q=%22water+effect%22+lighting&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&start=20&sa=N

China’s energy industries.
http://www.pwc.com/extweb/newcolth.nsf/docid/DAEAC284C0445C7985256A850074D778





<Additional links:>

<Petroleum products demand>
<http://www.purvingertz.com/pdf/Outlook_June%202002.pdf>

<The Asian oil problem>
<http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/data/pdf/137.pdf>

<Petro China>
<http://www.petrochina.com.cn/english/gsjs/zyyw_2_4.htm>

<Petro China Operating statistics>
<http://www.petrochina.com.cn/english/gsjs/jyyj.htm>

<Oil import trends (China)>
<http://www.ahk-china.org/china-economy/berichte-analysen-oil-import.htm>


<A report on China’s energy market is available from $70.00 at >
<http://estore.chinaonline.com/chinaonline/chinmarseren.html>

<A report on Chinese oil and gas demand, and refining margins is
available for purchase at
><http://www.esai.com/mu_multiclient2.htm#china>





<Search strategy:>

<china "crude oil products">
<://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=china+%22crude+oil+products%22>

<india "new refineries">
<://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=india+%22new+refineries%22>

<"crude oil" china growth "refining capacity">
<://www.google.com/search?q=%22crude+oil%22+china+growth+%22refining+capacity%22&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&start=10&sa=N>

<china "middle distillates">
<://www.google.com/search?q=china+%22middle+distillates%22&hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1>


<Hope this helps.>

---

Request for Answer Clarification by yariv-ga on 23 Jul 2003 17:53 PDT

Thanks, two clarifications:
1. Can you please add a couple of references from EIA site, they
usually have this kind of information as well and are reliable.
2. Are you able to find any notation to where India and China are most
likely to import Crude Oil and Crude Oil products from.

Thanks.

---

Clarification of Answer by belindalevez-ga on 24 Jul 2003 05:16 PDT

< EIA references.
Energy Information Adminstration – Home page.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/

Overview of oil industry in China
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/pgem/ch4d.html

World crude production
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table22.html

World crude refining capacity
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table36.html

South China Sea Region – overview
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/schina.html

China’s energy situation
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china/part2.html

China oil and gas restructuring
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chinapriv.html

India – country analysis – provides links to information about crude
production, energy data
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/india.html

India – energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/india.html


Where India imports from.

India Oil Corporation (IOC), India largest refiner imports five
million tonnes annually from Iran for its Mangalore Refinery. Almost
16 million tonnes are bought from the spot market.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030718/biz.htm

Iran is willing to offer India more crude.
http://www.dailyexcelsior.com/web1/03feb12/edit.htm

Bharat Pertroleum Corp Ltd imports crude oil for its refinery at
Bombay  and Kochi Refinery Ltd in southern India. Due to a shortfall
of 30,000 barrels per day there are plans to import additional sour
crudes from the Middle East. Last year 170,000 barrels per day of
sweet crude came from Oil and Natural Gas Corp. A further 140,000
barrels per day were from Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum Corp,
Petronas and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/030425/137/23sym.html


Where China imports from.

China imported 34.39 million tonnes of oil from the Middle East last
year. Saudi Arabia is its biggest supplier (11.39 million tonnes). It
also imports from Russia and Angola. Last year Angola supplied 5.71
million tonnes.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/030417/3/w13g.html

By 2005 Russia will import 30 million tonnes of crude to China.
http://quickstart.clari.net/qs_se/webnews/wed/bq/Qrussia-china-economy.RRdo_DyQ.html

Sinopec has contracts Yukos for the supply of oil – 3 million tonnes
in 2001.
http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:vFCYDsgiZogJ:www.undp.org/dpa/frontpagearchive/november00/3nov00/tv110300.pdf+%22crude+to+china%22+%22russia%22+last+year%22+%22million+tonnes%22&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

From June 2003 Yukos and CNPS will supply 6 million tons of Russian
Crude to China over the next three years.
http://www.kryopak.com/TurkistanGasNewsletterJune122003.html>


<Hope this helps.>