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Q: economic ( Answered 4 out of 5 stars,   0 Comments )
Question  
Subject: economic
Category: Business and Money > Economics
Asked by: makbool-ga
List Price: $2.50
Posted: 20 Aug 2003 18:43 PDT
Expires: 19 Sep 2003 18:43 PDT
Question ID: 247106
Hi

have i answered this question correctly

Given that P(X) = 0.5
P(Y) = 0.6
P(Y/X) = 0.9 find probabilites for

a. P(X and Y)

my answer: P(X) P(Y/X) = 0.5 * 0.9 = 0.45

B. P(X or Y)
my anwser

P (X or y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X and B) = 0.5 + 0.6 - 0.45 = 0.65

c. P(X/Y)

not sure about this one

thanks for your help
makbool
Answer  
Subject: Re: economic
Answered By: livioflores-ga on 20 Aug 2003 21:30 PDT
Rated:4 out of 5 stars
 
Hi makbool!!

The topic here is Conditional Probability, and the answer of the
problem c) is given in the solution of the problem a)!!:

You know that P(X and Y) = P(X) . P(Y/X) ; 
then 
P(Y/X) = P(X and Y) / P(X)
then
P(X/Y) = P(X and Y) / P(Y)
Why? 
Both events X and Y are Not Independent, so if you want to know the
probability that event X and event Y occur you must multiply the
probability that event X occur by the probability that event Y occur
GIVEN that event X has occured already. This is because for the event
(X and Y) it must be that the event X occur (and the probability of
this is P(X)), and then GIVEN X it must be that the event Y occur (and
the probability of this is P(Y/X)); then
P(X and Y) = P(X) . P(Y/X)
But here is the trick!!!
We can use first any of the events X or Y, in other words:
...for the event (X and Y) it must be that the event Y occur (and the
probability of this is P(Y)), and then GIVEN Y it must be that the
event X occur (and the probability of this is P(X/Y)); then
P(X and Y) = P(Y) . P(X/Y)

From the last formula we can obtain P(X/Y):

P(X/Y) = P(X and Y) / P(Y) 

For the problem c) we have:

P(X/Y) = 0.45 / 0.6 = 0.75

I hope this helps you. Please donīt hesitate to request for an answer
clarification if you need it.

Regards.
livioflores-ga
makbool-ga rated this answer:4 out of 5 stars
thanks for clarification
makbool

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