Hi There !

Moore's Law and other "common wisdom" state that technological change
is not only fast, but getting faster and faster each year...that
technology growth is exponential and not linear.

Who are some people who believe the converse?
That is to say, who would say:  "Technology is great, but it follows
normal S-curves.  There is nothing special about the growth in
technology."

A 5-star answer would be 2-4 names.   This is an easy question----no
sources, web sites, documentation, or other text is needed.  Just the
names.  (I would like to do the background reading myself.)

All comments greatly appreciated !
ron

I'm sure you are aware that Moore's law is very specific, addressing
transistors not technology in general.  I for one don't think change
is accelerating right now.

For a technology historian point-of-view, I recommend James Burke's
Connections series which was produced in the 1980's, and you can now
get on VHS.  He was cautious that change seem to be accelerating, but
also showed technology growing in spurts, triggered by certain
inventions (like better guns, cars, metallurgy, medicines, that sort
of thing).

Nikolai Kondratiev wrote about waves of economic/social/political
change produced by major technology change.  Watch out for this
subject because there are lots of stock market investment books on the
"K-wave" theory that don't do his original work justice.

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Since you would like to savor the experience of hunting down the
references yourself, I will not post links, but only a couple of
names:
 
Ilkka Tuomi

Laszlo Kish

Hi nronronronro,

Someone once commented (and if I could remember the source I would
post it in an instant) something along the following lines. Think of
what would happen if you got teleported from now into 1950. A lot of
things would be different, technologically speaking (much less
automation and computerization, medicine at a much less advanced point
than it is today, space exploration just being considered a realistic
possibility), but by and large you would not have much trouble getting
around in society: Most of the basic technologies are still there:
telephone, automobile, electric power, assembly lines, jet planes,
even the core information in medicine is still basically the same
(immunizations, a strong understanding of bacterial growth and
infection, etc). All in all, while things would certainly be
different, the world would largely be recognizable and comfortable for
you to live in.

However, imagine if 50's icons Ozzie and Harriet got teleported into
the past fifty years to 1900. Almost everything would be alien to
them. The automobile hardly exists as they (or we) know it; the
telephone is a novelty; television is a glimmer in some fantasist's
eye; there are no heavier-than-air aircraft, electricity is only
beginning to be worked with and even natural gas transmission is in
the relatively formative stages. The world of medicine is only
beginning to recognize the existence of cellular biology and
understand the basis of infectious disease. There are no antibiotics;
the flu still kills millions regularly, as do polio and smallpox. Most
of the creature comforts that we are familiar with, which existed even
in the 50's, are absent from the 1900's, or at best at their genesis.

It is relativley clear that at least in this past century, most of the
great leaps in technology occurred in the first half of the century.
The second half of the century had more advances in space, advanced
communications, computers, and medicine, but most of these are simply
refinements of things that had come into existence already. On the
other hand, the period from the 1880's to the 1950's saw incredible
advances, genuinely new inventions, etc.

Good luck,
smudgy.

snsh & omnivorous----excellent leads.  I will look into them
immediately.  Thank you!   ron

pinkfreud---your range of knowledge never ceases to amaze me.  Thanks!  ron

P.S.   fyi----Just found this.  Tuomi will be debating this very issue soon...

TECHNOLOGICAL ACCELERATION: A HIDDEN LAW OF NATURE?

Technologist and Singularity Researcher Kurzweil to Debate Vitalist Denton
and Techno-Philosopher Tuomi at "Accelerating Change Conference"

STANFORD UNIVERSITY (August 18, 2003) - Ray Kurzweil, noted inventor,
software developer and futurist, will present his work on "the law of
accelerating returns" and debate its merits with biologist Michael Denton
and innovation theorist Ilkka Tuomi to kick off a weekend conference devoted
to rigorous examination of the apparent acceleration of technology's
development, and the way it affects the human world.

smudgy----your thought experiment is fantastic. I am especially
intrigued with the notion of tectonic "paradigm shifts" (circa
1880-1950) versus "consolidation periods" (circa 1950-2003).  Thanks !
  ron

Wow. Kurzweil debating Tuomi at Stanford. Wish I could have been
there.

In case you haven't been following Kurzweil, here's an interesting
short article that summarizes some of his views:

http://www.fundlibrary.com/tfl/FACentre/Promenade/p_ProsPromenadeDetail.cfm?IB=6695

Thanks, pinkfreud!  
Just downloaded the article.  

I appreciate it!
ron