Hurricane Juan vs Tropical Storm Juan
Category: Reference, Education and News > Current Events
Asked by: brudenell-ga
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01 Oct 2003 16:55 PDT
Expires: 31 Oct 2003 15:55 PST
Question ID: 262017
At approximately what time (AST) and geographical location did Hurricane Juan become downgraded to Tropical Storm Juan on the night of September 28 - 29, 2003? Please be as precise as possible. Thank you for your interest in this question.
Re: Hurricane Juan vs Tropical Storm Juan
Answered By: mvguy-ga on 01 Oct 2003 20:33 PDT
The best information I could find indicates that the storm was downgraded around midnight of Sept. 28-29 near Halifax, as the following news articles indicate: Canada.com "Severity: A Category 1 hurricane, the weakest rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after hitting land. "Peak gust: 143 kilometres per hour. "Where: The hurricane made landfall at Sambro, N.S., and passed directly over Halifax before moving north across the province and over Prince Edward Island. "When: The hurricane's effects were first felt in Halifax at about 11 a.m. Sunday and it reached its peak at about 1 a.m., yesterday." http://canada.com/national/story.asp?id=A9B4DBB3-75FB-4672-A854-31847B597273 CP Atlantic Regional News "The category 1 hurricane - the weakest rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale - was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after making landfall in the Halifax area." http://canadaeast.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20030930/CPA/4622014&cachetime=15 Associated Press "Hurricane Juan lashed Nova Scotia with 86 mph winds Sunday, ripping off roofs, uprooting trees, knocking out power and killing at least three people before weakening to a tropical storm and heading north to Prince Edward Island. "Late Monday, Juan weakened to a tropical depression and was headed out to sea, where it was expected to dissipate." http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/breaking_news/6892392.htm MIT "The center of Juan passed over the southern coast of Nova Scotia west of Halifax Sunday night, with the highest reported winds being 62 mph. The Category 1 hurricane (the weakest possible) was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after making landfall in the Halifax area around midnight. Juan drenched Prince Edward Island, uprooting trees and cutting power lines." http://www-tech.mit.edu/V123/N44/weather_44.44w.html Finally, data from StormTrack indicates that the storm was downgraded between 11 p.m. on Sunday and 5 a.m. on Monday (which would make it near Hallifax), as indicated on the following page: http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/storm_show.jsp?area=ATL&storm=15A&dtype=ASCII That timing coincides with the following reports at 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. respectively: Sep 28 2003 11:00PM EDT "AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX." http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1064818461-HAPT35US.TXT.html.en Sep 29 2003 5:00AM EDT "AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NORTH POINT ON PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND." http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1064838386-HAPT35US.TXT.html.en I did come across one article that indicated the downgrading took place later on Monday: Portsmouth Herald "State climatologist Jason Allard of the University of New Hampshire said the hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm as it passed through Newfoundland Monday [Sept. 29] afternoon." http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/09302003/news/52726.htm I would assume that the Portsmouth article was in error, that it actually was downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression at that time. These articles provided the most complete information I was able to find about time and place. I hope the data is precise enough for your needs. Sincerely, Mvguy-ga Search strategy: Google News search term: "hurricane juan" downgraded http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&edition=us&q=%22hurricane+juan%22+downgraded Google search term: hurricane watch ://www.google.com/search?q=hurricane+watch
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Re: Hurricane Juan vs Tropical Storm Juan
From: tutuzdad-ga on 01 Oct 2003 19:38 PDT
Dear brudenell-ga; Sometimes when researchers cant pinpoint an exact answer but feel theyve found as an answer as close as possible to the exact answer, we post it as a comment to see if it flies. Since I cannot give you an actual time or a location thats is exactly what I am doing. I am posting this as a comment for the time being. As near as can be determined, we must rely on official reports to determine at what point Hurricane Juan was first downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Naturally the exact moment that the magnitude of the storm actually regressed from a hurricane to that of a tropical storm was somewhat before the official announcement, but probably not long. In these official bulletins, the first of which is time stamped 5 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003, the National Weather Service National Hurricane and Tropical Prediction Center described the position of Hurricane Juan in this manner: THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES (385 KM) SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. HURRICANE JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003 http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archive/2003/pub/al152003.public.014.shtml? Six hours later, the National Weather Service issued this correction about Hurricane Juans official position: CORRECTED FOR INITIAL POSITION 44.5N 63.8W INSTEAD OF 45.8N 63.5N and described its correct location in this manner: AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX. Finally, this official advisory (#15), time stamped 11 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003 was the last official reference by the National Weather Service to Hurricane Juan. JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003 http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archive/2003/pub/al152003.public.015.shtml? From that point forward, the National Weather Service referred to former Hurricane Juan as Tropical Storm Juan as seen in Advisory #16 time stamped 5 AM AST MON SEP 29 2003. This official change in status appears to have taken place when THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NORTH POINT ON PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON SEP 29 2003 http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archive/2003/pub/al152003.public.016.shtml? In summary, since the weather advisories came at six-hour intervals, and the storm appears to have downgraded during this period, it is certainly safe to say that Hurricane Juan became Tropical Storm Juan at some point between 11 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003 and 5 AM AST MON SEP 29 2003 on the segment of its path between points 30 miles southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia and 50 miles North, Northeast of North Point, Prince Edward Island. If this serves to answer your question please let me know. Best regards; Tutuzdad-ga
Thank you tutuzdad-ga
From: brudenell-ga on 02 Oct 2003 05:31 PDT
Good morning Your comment was quite informative and I appreciate your time taken to post. Thank you. Brudenell
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