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Q: UK Statistics for past 30 years ( Answered,   0 Comments )
Question  
Subject: UK Statistics for past 30 years
Category: Business and Money > Finance
Asked by: marc2-ga
List Price: $30.00
Posted: 12 Oct 2003 15:40 PDT
Expires: 11 Nov 2003 14:40 PST
Question ID: 265547
I would like to know what the average House Price, Mortgage Interest
Rate, and After-tax Household Income was for each of the past 30 years
in the UK.
Answer  
Subject: Re: UK Statistics for past 30 years
Answered By: tehuti-ga on 13 Oct 2003 08:21 PDT
 
Hello marc2.,

I have found much of what you seek, but there are lacunae where is
seems the data is just not available.  I hope nevertheless that this
answer satisfies your requirements.  Please ask for further
clarification if necessary.

Average UK house prices from 1970 in UK£ are as follows:

1970	4,975
1971	5,632
1972	7,374
1973	9,942
1974	10,990
1975	11,787
1976	12,704
1977	13,650
1978	15,594
1979	19,925
1980	23,596
1981	24,188
1982	23,644
1983	26,471
1984	29,106
1985	31,103
1986	36,276
1987	40,391
1988	49,355
1989	54,846
1990	59,785
1991	62,455
1992	61,336
1993	62,333
1994	64,787
1995	65,644
1996	70,626
1997	76,103
1998	81,774
1999	92,521
2000	101,550
2001	112,835

Source: Table 502 (prices from 1930 onwards) from Live Tables in the
Housing Statistics Section of the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister:
http://www.odpm.gov.uk/stellent/groups/odpm_control/documents/contentservertemplate/odpm_index.hcst?n=1575&l=3
(In case of problems, the path to follow from the home page
http://www.odpm.gov.uk is: Home > Housing > Housing statistics > Live
tables )

I found data for 2002 and 2003 (up to June) on the Land Registry web
site.
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk./publications/default.asp?pubtype=0

 These figures are quarterly:

Jan-Mar 2002: 121,881
Apr-Jun 2002: 133,247
Jul-Sep 2002: 146,150
Oct-Dec 2002: 145,251

Jan-Mar 2003: 145,897
Apr-Jun 2003:  149,935

With respect to mortgage rates, it is not so easy to find actual
figures for your period of interest.

I have found a reply to a parliamentary question by Andrew George on
this topic, reported by Hansard on 20 January, 2003. He asked about
the average mortgage rate since 1978.

The reply, made on behalf of the National Statistician was:
“The rates shown in the attached table are currently compiled by the
Financial Services Authority (and previously Building Societies
Commission). They are average rates for mortgages with Building
Societies. Comparable figures prior to 1984 are not available….
 
Year   	Average Rate2      Basic Rate3  
1984       12.19                    11.88  
1985       13.01                    12.75  
1986       12.32                    12.30  
1987       10.34                    10.30  
1988       12.75                    12.77  
1989       14.44                    14.42  
1990       14.34                    14.48  
1991       11.39                    11.52  
1992       8.98                      8.98  
1993       7.94                      7.99  
1994       7.84                      8.14  
1995       7.48                      7.98  
1996       6.51                      7.00  
1997       7.58                      8.16  
1998       7.29                      7.75  
1999       6.49                      6.88  
2000       6.65                      7.31  
2001       5.17                      5.34  

1 The average rates are based on information provided by Building
Societies. The figures reflect rates at the end of the year.
2 These data represents the weighted average of individual reporters'
own weighted average rates on their overall residential loan book.
3 These data represents the weighted average of the individual
reporters' standard variable (headline) rate applying to the majority
of mortgage accounts at the end of reporting period.”
http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm200203/cmhansrd/cm030120/text/30120w13.htm

Monthly figures are available from the Bank of England, but only from
1998 onwards.  The figures for 2002-2003 are:
31 Jan 02    5.66  
28 Feb 02    5.66  
31 Mar 02    5.65  
30 Apr 02    5.65  
31 May 02    5.66  
30 Jun 02    5.66  
31 Jul 02    5.65  
31 Aug 02    5.66  
30 Sep 02    5.65  
31 Oct 02    5.66  
30 Nov 02    5.64  
31 Dec 02    5.64  
31 Jan 03    5.64  
28 Feb 03    5.63  
31 Mar 03    5.49  
30 Apr 03    5.51  
31 May 03    5.5  
30 Jun 03    5.49  
31 Jul 03    5.49  
31 Aug 03    5.32  
“Monthly average weighted interest rate, standard variable mortgage,
Banks & Building Societies”  Updated:  29 Sep 2003
Accessed through the Bank of England Interactive Database
http://213.225.140.30/mfsd/iadb/NewInterMed.asp?Travel=NIxIRx

A chart showing real and nominal mortgage rates plotted against
inflation for the period 1961-2001 is available at:
http://www.camecon.co.uk/whatsnew/releases/houseprices.htm 
Cambridge Econometrics Press Release, 14th May, (updated 31st May
2001)
It is possible to access the data compiled by Cambridge Econometrics,
but this requires a paid subscription.

Another chart showing pre-tax and post-tax mortgage rates 1969-2002 is
available at:
http://ess.ntu.ac.uk/economics/discussionpapers/applied/2003/2003_2.pdf
Report by Dean Garratt from Nottingham Trent University
Page 8 of the document, page 9 of the pdf file.
The authors that the data are compiled from two sources, plus his own
calculations.

Since movements in the mortgage rates usually reflect movements in the
Bank of England base rate, you might wish to look at base rate data. 
An Excel file with all the changes from March 1970 until the present
is available on the Bank of England web site:
http://213.225.140.30/mfsd/rates/baserates.xls


Household income data 

“Household income is derived not only directly from economic activity
in the form of wages and salaries and self-employment income but also
through transfers such as social security benefits. It is then subject
to a number of deductions such as income tax, local taxes, and
contributions towards pensions and national insurance. The amount of
income remaining is referred to as household disposable income”

Unfortunately, the figures are only given as income per head in values
relative to a baseline of 100 in 1971.

1971		100.0
1972		108.1
1973		114.7
1974		113.6
1975		114.5
1976		114.0
1977		111.8
1978		120.1
1979		126.7
1980		128.6
1981		127.9
1982		127.7
1983		130.6
1984		135.0
1985		139.2
1986		144.8
1987		150.5
1988		158.0
1989		164.7
1990		169.8
1991		172.2
1992		176.8
1993		181.9
1994		184.1
1995		188.2
1996		192.0
1997		199.7
1998		198.2
1999		205.4
2000		213.8
2001		227.8

From: Real household disposable income per head and gross domestic
product per head 1971-2001: Social Trends 33
Accessed from: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=5748

I have also found hard figures from the National Statistics Office on
disposable weekly household income for the following years:

Year                Current price         Constant price
1970	              28                             261
1980	             115                            293
1990	             258                            356
1995-96	             307                            356
1996-97	             325                            367
1997-98	             343                            376 
1998-99              371                            394
1999-2000	     391                            409
2000-01	             409                            415
2001-02              447	                    447

Source: “Income and source of income 1970 to 2001-02: Expenditure and
Food Survey (Revised September 2003)”
Accessed from (select “family spending”): 
 
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/explorer.asp?CTG=3&SL=&E=4678#4678


Search strategies:
"average mortgage rate" UK
“base rates” mortgage
historical “mortgage rates”
historical “mortgage interest rates”
UK statistics
“average household income” UK
UK household income historical
“household income” statistics

Request for Answer Clarification by marc2-ga on 19 Oct 2003 13:08 PDT
The data on House Prices and Mortgage Interest Rates is good, but the
data on Household Disposable Income is lacking.  The problem is
determinining the 'Current Price' of income for the periods 1971 to
1979, 1981 to 1989 and 1991 to 1994.

I have tried to deduce this data from the index of real disposable
income mentioned and the inflation rates at
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/RP02.pdf
I get the following
Year	Inflation Index	Household Income
1971	100	28
1972	108.1	32.73885714
1973	114.7	37.42497143
1974	113.6	41.50186667
1975	114.5	50.15496933
1976	114	61.60
1977	111.8	70.42
1978	120.1	83.15
1979	126.7	95.91
1980	128.6	115.25
1981	127.9	129.57
1982	127.7	144.90
1983	130.6	155.50
1984	135	168.97
1985	139.2	182.97
1986	144.8	200.86
1987	150.5	216.91
1988	158	235.23
1989	164.7	263.48
1990	169.8	292.44
1991	172.2	323.13
1992	176.8	345.52
1993	181.9	361.52
1994	184.1	374.91
1995	188.2	396.01
1996	192	415.63
1997	199.7	444.39
1998	198.2	455.62
1999	205.4	483.71
2000	213.8	513.36
2001	227.8	561.75

This matches the "Expenditure and Food Survey" data for 1970 to 1980,
but then starts to diverge!

Are there any other sources of Household Disposable Income data for
1973 - 2003 on the web?

Clarification of Answer by tehuti-ga on 19 Oct 2003 14:08 PDT
Hello marc2,

As I mentioned, there are lacunae in the official data supplied by the
UK government.  I have not, however, managed to find any other source
that cites any sort of annual household income data for the period
that you required, let alone disposable as opposed to gross income. 
The other official household disposable income data I have been able
to find gives median and percentile figures, but not mean figures.
Furthermore, data has been adjusted to 2001 prices on the basis of the
retail prices index. Also, the data is not entirely comparable from
year to year, because data from 1993/94 onwards are for financial
years, and data for 1994/95 onwards does not include Northern Ireland,
while figures for earlier years do.

It is possible that if you direct a specific request to the National
Statistics Office, they might provide you with the actual figures you
need.

In the meantime, here are the median values for the adjusted income
data in £ per week:

    
1971	177.73	
1972	188.07	
1973	198.02	
1974	198.91	
1975	195.12	
1976	187.22	
1977	184.21	
1978	201.33	
1979	205.37	
1980	206.88	
1981	200.10	
1982	195.92	
1983	203.77	
1984	207.29	
1985	215.07	
1986	224.43	
1987	234.71	
1988	251.27	
1989	254.27	
1990	257.07	
1991	257.84	
1992	256.93	
1993/94 263.87	
1994/95	264.08	
1995/96	262.55	
1996/97 267.45	
1997/98	271.52	
1998/99	276.40	
1999/00	283.74	
2000/01	292.96	

If you would like to see the percentile figures as well (10th, 25th,
75th and 90th), the table is available in Excel format at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D6250.xls

Clarification of Answer by tehuti-ga on 20 Oct 2003 00:55 PDT
With respect to my suggestion that the National Statistics Office
might be able to provide what you need, I have found that the Office
does offer a data analysis service:

"Did you know that you can get data from the Office for National
Statistics tailored specifically to your needs?
.... maybe you want data to back up your research. We can provide you
with bespoke data ... (depending on availability).
... just email us or phone us on 0845 601 3034, Monday to Friday 9:00
till 5:00, and let us know what you want. We will then issue you with
a quote, and subject to your acceptance, your data will be sent as
soon as possible."
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/services/DataAnalysisService.asp 

Email: "If your enquiry is about National Statistics please email
info@statistics.gov.uk. You should receive an acknowledgement within 2
days and a reply within 10 working days."
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/email.asp
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