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Q: Effects of 9/11 on US Import and Export ( Answered 4 out of 5 stars,   2 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Effects of 9/11 on US Import and Export
Category: Business and Money > Economics
Asked by: toratora-ga
List Price: $50.00
Posted: 16 Oct 2003 18:10 PDT
Expires: 15 Nov 2003 17:10 PST
Question ID: 267080
I need some specific information about import/export and international
trade from U.S. perspective after 9/11. Basically, I'm looking to see
effects of 9/11 on import/export (US economy) and general
international trade.

Request for Question Clarification by pafalafa-ga on 16 Oct 2003 19:02 PDT
Toratora-ga,

From a quick look around, I don't see that 9/11 had very much impact
on US trade, and nor would I expect it to.  The largest trading
partners of the US are Canada and Mexico, and there's no reason to
suppose a terrorist act would greatly alter trade relationships
between these countries.

The biggest impacts were probably on travel (though that effects
imports and exports more or less equally, I would think) and the shift
of some US government expenditures to military priorities in select
overseas locations.  But as large as these military expenses might be,
they are still not large enough to bring about a very notable change
in overall trade balances.

The biggest effect on trade, by far, is the overall state of national
and international economies, which were struggling prior to 9/11, and
are still trying to regain their footing.  9/11 was dramatic and
tragic, to be sure.  But I'm just not certain its impacts can be
translated into specific numbers for trade balance figures.

Perhaps if you can tell us a bit more...why is this of interest?  Is
there a theory you hope to support or refute?  Have you seen any
information to indicate a sizable impact on trade?  Anything more you
can tell us would be a tremendous help in providing you a well-focused
answer to your question.

Thanks.

Request for Question Clarification by easterangel-ga on 17 Oct 2003 01:00 PDT
Hi!

I was able to find reports indicating effects particularly months or a
year after the Sept 11 attacks. Would these be acceptable?

Thanks!

Clarification of Question by toratora-ga on 17 Oct 2003 11:34 PDT
Yes those would be acceptable.  Thanks.
Answer  
Subject: Re: Effects of 9/11 on US Import and Export
Answered By: easterangel-ga on 18 Oct 2003 02:40 PDT
Rated:4 out of 5 stars
 
Hi! Thanks for the question.

I found the following articles that show the different effects upon
the the US and International trade communities. I will provide small
snippets from the articles to save you time but I highly suggest that
you read them in their entirety to get a better grasp of the topic.


--------------------------------
TRADE FLOW CHANGES:

“The flow of private capital from the U.S., Japan, and Europe to
developing nations has effectively been suspended since Sept. 11,"
Nihon Keizai News, Tokyo's top financial paper, reported on Oct. 29.
The editorial called it "the biggest disruption of capital flows since
September 1998" when Russian bonds and the giant Long Term Credit
Management hedge fund crashed, nearly melting down world markets.”

“Business investment in the United States fell 14.6% in the second
quarter (below the second quarter of 2000), and 11.9% in the third
quarter, according to the Commerce Department. The decline in trade
was even more drastic: Imports of goods and services in the third
quarter were 15.2% below one year earlier, and exports 16.6% lower.”

“Global Lending Shuts Down; Banking Media Blame Sept. 11”
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2001/2844credit_freeze.html 


“The most dramatic effect of 9/11 has been on the ability of firms to
operate a supply chain spanning international borders. U.S. Firms are
incurring new costs in transporting goods internationally via ship,
air, and land.”

“In the area of transportation costs, airfreight costs have risen 15%
since 9/11. This increase is believed to be permanent for firms. There
has been little evidence indicating that transportation costs by sea
have been affected. Consequently, many firms are switching from air
transport to transport by sea. The absence of a cost increase in sea
transportation may be temporary as new legislation is under debate
that may have a negative cost impact on this transportation mode.”

“After 9/11: Supply Chain Implications in International Trade for U.S.
Firms”
http://globaledge.msu.edu/KnowledgeRoom/FeaturedInsights/0009.pdf


“Beginning in early October, ocean carriers operating in the
Europe/Far East and certain Middle East trade lanes announced war risk
surcharges for traffic to and from specific ports as well as cargo
transiting the Suez Canal, regardless of the origin and destination
ports. War risk surcharges range from $10 to $450 per Twenty Foot
Equivalent Unit of full container loads, and from $5 to $12 per cubic
metre of less than full container loads.5 The application of the
surcharges meant that total insurance rates for shipments from India
to Persian Gulf ports, for example, went up by about 50 per cent.”

“The reinforcement of US customs vigilance during the processing of
commercial vehicles led to lengthy delays immediately after the
terrorist attacks. The US-Mexican border was closed for a short
period, but hold-ups at the US-Canadian border were at least equally
substantial.”

“Road transportation companies themselves have been taking a variety
of new measures against terrorist attacks. Some are fencing unsecured
freight yards and terminals, conducting background checks on drivers,
and issuing identity badges to employees, while others have installed
satellite-tracking systems to monitor the exact location of trucks and
trailers or equipped their vehicles with sensors that can detect
whether a cargo container has been opened before reaching its
destination.”

“Oil price developments after the 11 September events have in
comparison been rather atypical. During the first month after the
events, oil prices were on average about $4 per barrel lower than
during the preceding month (Figure 1). Throughout the subsequent
military action in Afghanistan, oil prices stayed below $20 per
barrel.”

“Trade Impacts of the Terrorist Attacks of 11 September 2001: A
Quantitative Assessment”
http://www.diw.de/deutsch/service/veranstaltungen/ws_consequences/docs/diw_ws_consequences200206_walkenhorst.pdf


------------------------------------
FIGURES:

“The department's November 20 press release said that U.S. imports of
services dropped to $4,514 million in September from $18,013 million
in August, reflecting not only the $11,000 million surge in insurance
payments but also a sharp drop in travel spending.”

“Overall the deficit dropped to $18,692 million in September, the
lowest level since March 1999, from $27,108 million in August. The
deficit comprised a $35,917 million deficit in goods and a $17,225
million surplus in services.”

“U.S. exports in September, $77,293 million, and imports, $95,985
million, were both down to their lowest levels since March 1999.”

“Big drops in exports were reported in autos plus a wide range of
capital goods, including telecommunications equipment, computer
accessories, generators, industrial engines, aircraft and
semiconductors.”

“The September deficit with China went up to $8,503 million; that with
Japan was little changed at $5,359 million. Other large deficits were
reported with Canada, $4,251 million; Mexico, $2,974 million; Germany,
$1,900 million, and Taiwan, $1,186 million.”

Additional trade data are available on out next link.

“U.S. Trade Deficit Driven Down by September Terrorist Attacks”
http://usembassy.state.gov/tokyo/wwwhec0325.html 



“While all modes were affected by the Sept. 11 attacks, the 13 percent
drop in 2001 in the value of air freight activity was the largest
decrease of all modes, followed by trucking at 8 percent, maritime at
3 percent and rail at 2 percent.”

“The United States, a major worldwide seller of aircraft, has run a
large deficit in trade of transportation-related goods in recent years
because of growth in the import of automobiles, particularly from
Japan.  The transportation-related goods deficit was more than $75
billion in 2001, with a $100 billion deficit in automotive vehicles
and parts offsetting a $24 billion surplus in aircraft, spacecraft and
parts trade and smaller surpluses in other transportation sectors.”

“More than 10 Percent of U.S. Freight Is from International Trade, BTS
Reports”
http://www.dot.gov/affairs/bts0403.htm 


“Over 40 percent of all maritime containers that arrived in the U.S.
in 2001 came through the ports of LA-Long Beach. When these ports were
closed for five days by the dockworkers strike in October 2002, the
cost to the national economy was estimated at $1 billion per day (Hart
and Rudman, 2002).”


United State Merchandise Exports by Air and Vessel, 1990-2001
(Millions of constant 2001 US$)


Volume Total Value:
Year 2000 - $483,425
Year 2001 - $450,335

“Longer-Term Impacts”
http://www-pam.usc.edu/volume6/v6i1a1s3.html 


“Cumulative U.S. merchandise trade deficit, Sept. 2001-June 2002: 
-$366.5 billion”

“Total manufacturing employment, Sept. 2001-Aug. 2002:*  -710,000”

“Factline: Trade Flows Since 9/11”
http://www.tradealert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=641 


---------------------------------------
Asian Trade:

Notes Thailand Trade:

“Imports in the first 10 months rose 2% to just over $52.2 billion,
leaving the country with a trade surplus of $2.4 billion, down 61.3%
from a year earlier.”

“Other Asian nations shared Thailand's fate to an even greater extent.
Taiwan's exports plummeted by 16.9% in value between January and
October. The Philippines posted a decline of 13.8%, South Korea, 11%,
Malaysia 8.35%, Indonesia 6% and Hong Kong 3.6%.”

“China was the only country that maintained growth, a rise of 6.3% in
the period, but year-on-year it recorded a fall of 0.04% in
September.”

“US downturn hits Thailand's exports”
http://www.bangkokpost.net/yearend2001/trade.html 


European Trade

“After growing strongly in recent years, mechanical engineering is
feeling the effects of the industrial investment downturn in the
United States, Japan and, to a lesser extent, in Europe (20% drop in
orders in the 3rd quarter this year in the European Union). Booked
orders and the outlook of company managers are clearly trending down.”

“World automobile sales should register a decline (down 7% in 2001).
However, the decline's intensity will vary depending on the region.”
 
“Steel continues to suffer very low prices (hot-rolled coil down 18%
from October 2000 to September 2001 in the European Union, cold-rolled
coil down 24%, type-304 stainless steel down 22%) with world demand
falling sharply while production has remained stable during the first
seven months this year.”

“The Internet and telecommunication sectors (which continue to be
rated C) are suffering a sharp decline in activity. World cell-phone
sales fell 20% in 2001. That decline reflects a sharp drop in Europe,
where the percentage of users is now very high, and a slowdown in the
United States and Asia.”

“Panorama of the situation by sector”
http://www.trading-safely.com/sitecwp/ceen.nsf/vwNL/7E7B2C8C8AADB1B0C1256AEF004AFFE8


Search terms used:                         
effects "terrorist attacks"  9/11 US European “trade flows” exports
imports
                
I hope these links would help you in your research. Before rating this
answer, please ask for a clarification if you have a question or if
you would need further information.
                        
Thanks for visiting us again.                        
                        
Regards,                        
Easterangel-ga                        
Google Answers Researcher
toratora-ga rated this answer:4 out of 5 stars
Good stuff!!..

Comments  
Subject: Re: Effects of 9/11 on US Import and Export
From: umiat-ga on 17 Oct 2003 19:39 PDT
 
toratora-ga,
 From a US perspective, I couldn't find much. I did find references
from other countries, but the US data was scarce. Here are two that
might help:

Fom "Overall Trends in U.S. International Merchandise Trade." Bureau
of Transportation Statistics.
http://www.bts.gov/publications/us_international_trade_and_freight_transportation_trends/2003/html/overall_trends.html

"In 2001, the value of total U.S. international merchandise trade
declined nearly 4 percent from the record $2.2 trillion reached in
2000 (in inflation-adjusted terms), the largest annual decrease since
19907 (figure 2). In 2000, both trade and GDP grew at high positive
rates. The decline in 2001 was due, in part, to the weakness of global
economic activity

**  and the effect of the September 11 terrorist attacks. 

Exports were particularly affected, falling by 6 percent in 2001,
while imports fell 3 percent. Between 1990 and 2001, merchandise trade
saw greater year-to-year fluctuations than U.S. GDP due to its
dependence on global economic activity."

==

From "A Case Study: United States International Trade in Goods and
Services - August 2002."
EconEDLInk. http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/index.cfm?lesson=EM407

"Following the events of September 11, both imports and exports of
goods and services decreased dramatically. (For more information on
the impact of September 11 tragedy on international trade, see the
September and October case studies from 2001.)
Subject: Re: Effects of 9/11 on US Import and Export
From: hlabadie-ga on 18 Oct 2003 05:32 PDT
 
Probably the greatest impact of 9/11 on import/export stems from the
increased delays that have resulted from implementation of new
regulations. Delays mean an increase in cost. There are bottlenecks at
all ports and at other places of entry, such as crossing points into
the US for truck traffic from Canada and Mexico.


Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT)
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/import/commercial_enforcement/ctpat/

Post 9/11 Security Cost Impact on Port of Seattle
Import/Export Container Traffic
http://depts.washington.edu/gttl/
SecurityCostImpactonPortofSeattle.pdf

"The estimated combined annual cost impact of these security
initiatives for container traffic through the Port of Seattle is $67
million to $113 million.
The total container traffic for all U.S. ports in 2002 was about 32
million TEUs, with the Port of Seattle representing a little less than
5% of this. This indicates that the total annual cost impact resulting
from these security initiatives for container traffic for all U.S.
ports may be on the order of $2 billion."

hlabadie-ga

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