Hello reflector8-ga,
What an interesting topic! I quickly found some answers for you but
then continued my research because I was fascinated by the results.
There was a flurry of articles and commentaries about the use of the
?terrorism futures? market by the Pentagon?s Policy Analysis Market
(PAM) project this summer. The way it was presented in the media led
to general public revulsion and the project was scrapped. Despite the
very negative reaction, there are many proponents for using ?idea
markets? for predicting political, social and business trends and
events.
I?ve located a sampling of articles for you as well as several idea
markets on the Web that may be useful for developing your own
intra-company idea market. In addition, I?ve also found some software
products that might suit your needs. I?ve also included links to a
selection of brainstorming and other creative idea generating products
in case they may be helpful. Finally, I?ve also listed some general
?idea market? sites in case you want to continue your research.
I hope that you will find this research helpful. I wish you well for
implementing an idea market in your company.
~ czh ~
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IDEA MARKETS ARTICLES AND PAPERS
================================
http://www.analects-ink.com/weekend/030801.htm
David Schlosser?s Weekend Reading
I won?t use this weekend reading to debate the merits of the futures
market for terrorist attacks. Although I think the idea is innovative
and useful, I understand reasonable people disagree on this at a very
fundamental level. I copied several articles exploring the concept of
idea markets, such as the one killed by bad press this week, and hope
you?ll print them to read at your leisure. Even if you disagree with
the concept of a futures market for terrorism, you may learn how the
mechanism could help answer difficult questions and resolve
competition for scarce resources.
***** This is an excellent collection of articles that gives you a
good overview of using ?idea markets? for predicting emerging trends.
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http://www.cioinsight.com/article2/0,3959,20228,00.asp
October 1, 2001 -- The Innovation Imperative
A growing number of companies, from Montreal-based Bombardier Inc. to
Estee Lauder, are trying to battle the malaise of the current business
climate and gird for the long term by creating "idea markets" that use
in-house information networks to stimulate and manage innovation?and
put the brightest new ideas into the hands of the people who can turn
them into new products and services the most quickly. The theory:
Continuous innovation can lead to profits with staying power.
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http://www.sciencenews.org/20031018/bob9.asp
Week of Oct. 18, 2003 -- Best Guess: Economists explore betting
markets as prediction tools
The project, known as the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), was to have
been a market in which participants could wager on Middle East events,
say, the gross domestic product of Syria in coming years or the
political instability of Iran. ? Critics labeled the project a
"terrorism futures market" and denounced it as morally repugnant and
grotesque.
On the face of it, having people bet on disasters sounds downright
appalling. However, the core idea of the project rests on solid
scientific foundations. Studies over a 20-year period have amassed a
wealth of evidence that under the right circumstances, carefully
designed markets can be among the most effective prediction tools.
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http://www.usnews.com/usnews/nycu/tech/nextnews/archive/next031008.htm
October 8, 2003 -- Judgement day
Betting markets like TradeSports?also known as "idea markets"?have
been shown in various studies to be more accurate than polls or expert
predictions in forecasting political, financial and sporting outcomes.
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http://www.wired.com/news/print/0,1294,59818,00.html
The Case for Terrorism Futures
Critics blasted policy-makers Tuesday for dropping a controversial
plan to create a futures market to help predict terrorist strikes.
Legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) may have found the Pentagon's
Policy Analysis Market, or PAM, "grotesque." But proponents of "idea
markets" say PAM's quicksilver cancellation will rob the country's
intelligence agencies of a tool with a strong history of accurately
predicting future events.
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http://groups.yahoo.com/group/reputation/message/62
Subject: RE: [reputation] article: futures mkt reputations
The number of practical and ethical problems around this project are
indeed astonishing, but it's important to note that the underlying
idea of using a futures market as a tool for prediction is very solid.
One of the most socially valuable functions of a liquid futures
market is the forward price curve that it generates, which is of
course the market's best estimate of where the price will be for the
commodity being traded at various points in the future.
-------------------------------------------------
http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html
Idea Futures (a.k.a. Prediction Markets, Information Markets)
The Idea Our policy-makers and media rely too much on the "expert"
advice of a self-interested insider's club of pundits and big-shot
academics. These pundits are rewarded too much for telling good
stories, and for supporting each other, rather than for being "right".
Instead, let us create betting markets on most controversial
questions, and treat the current market odds as our best expert
consensus. The real experts (maybe you), would then be rewarded for
their contributions, while clueless pundits would learn to stay away.
You should have a free-speech right to bet on political questions in
policy markets, and we could even base a new form of government on
idea futures.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/08/business/08SCEN.html?ex=1069218000&en=8eab69828850ece5&ei=5070
ECONOMIC SCENE A Market Approach to Politics
Economists believe financial markets do a pretty good job of
aggregating information in part because they offer strong incentives
to those who make good predictions. Prices of oil futures contracts
predict future spot prices well because traders who make better
predictions can make a lot of money.
So why not use financial markets to help aggregate information about
those matters of fact that are important to public choice? This
intriguing idea is examined in detail in a paper by Robin Hanson, an
economist at George Mason University, called "Shall We Vote on Values,
but Bet on Beliefs?" (http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html.)
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http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/business/columnists/gmsv/7208834.htm
Nov. 07, 2003 -- Good Morning Silicon Valley
What's the latest bid on the success of idea markets?
MIT's Technology Review has joined the idea-futures gaming craze with
a market that gives you 10,000 bucks of play money and lets you wager
on subjects like stock index levels, the timing of Google's IPO and
the likelihood of Oracle's takeover of PeopleSoft. The idea, as in all
such markets, is to generate collective and hopefully predictive
opinions from an informed body of observers. You won't make money
here, but you could win some nifty prizes.
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http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_50/b3659021.htm
Using the Net for Brainstorming
Smart companies are exploiting cyberspace to spark innovation
In management circles, it's called ''knowledge markets.'' The notion
is that large companies can harness the Web with small entrepreneurial
teams to drive innovation at a rate they've never before experienced.
These cadres are akin to nimble Silicon Valley upstarts, except that
they live in the bellies of large corporate beasts. Experts say that
hundreds of corporations are adopting this approach, from Nortel
Networks Inc. (NT) to Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) ''The trend now is to
decentralize operations, to build idea factories, or idea markets.
This is a way to bring the startup mentality inside,'' says Clayton
Christensen, a Harvard Business School professor.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.xent.com/nov99/0340.html
"So how do knowledge markets work?
Rebel bands solicit ideas and pick the most promising of them. IN some
cases they pass the projects off to the established business units.
Other times, they create and fund internal startups that use Web
communications and collaboration to deliver new products and services.
The payoff for the innovators: bonuses or stock options...."
-------------------------------------------------
http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/340283.html
Company-wide Brainstorming: Next Generation Suggestion Systems? (2000)
http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/340283.html
The Mindpool Hybrid: Theorising a New Angle on EBS and Suggestion Systems (2001)
Abstract: In this argumentative paper, the web-based brainstorm
application Mindpool is introduced as a complement to traditional
corporate suggestion systems. Though being inspired by, and greatly
related to, general electronic brainstorming (EBS) applications,
Mindpool differs in several important aspects. By combining features
traditionally found in EBS with the benefits of nominal groups
Mindpool out-performs previous approaches.
-------------------------------------------------
http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/common/item_detail.jhtml?id=T0310A
Betting on a New Market
Publication Date: Oct 15, 2003
Length: 3p
Description:
Idea markets have been used effectively outside the corporate world
for more than 15 years. Since 1988, the Iowa Electronic Markets have
predicted presidential election outcomes more accurately than polls
75% of the time. Today, more and more companies are taking note of the
results. Learn the three steps that managers need to take to put an
idea market into organizational practice.
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IDEA MARKETS SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS
===============================
http://idea-x.net/my_ideax.php
Welcome To Idea-X, in Forbes Magazine's Best of the Web Directory for
the Innovation and Ideas category! Idea-X allows you to submit your
great ideas or solicit ideas from a community of users. Ideas are open
to discussion and evaluation as well as many other community oriented
features.
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http://knexa.com/about.php?id=1&subid=1
Knexa is a leading provider of Knowledge Management and Citizen
Relationship Management Solutions. Today, Knexa's public and private
customers use Knexa's products and services to satisfy their citizens'
and customers' needs, collaborate, share knowledge and achieve
excellence. Knexa's innovative Tribute Knowledge Management software
and business methodology fosters knowledge sharing in organizations
with the goal of driving innovation, revenue growth, reducing costs
and developing a cohesive corporate culture.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.creax.com/resources/creax_net.html
SOFTWARE
***** See the collection of dozens of brainstorming products to help
generate ideas for individuals or groups. These are not strictly ?idea
market? products but could serve as an adjunct to idea market
activities.
======================
IDEA MARKETS WEB SITES
======================
http://www.ideaexplore.net/
IdeaExplore is a collection of ideas for improving things. It is free.
Anyone can search and anyone can contribute. The goal is to help
improve the world a little at a time by helping good ideas and the
people who can implement them find each other. Please feel free to
explore ideas and share your own.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.addictlab.com/
www.addictlab.com is a creative portal which allows its visitors
access to all submitted creative projects. The structure of
addictlab.com allows brands and individual creatives to collaborate on
all creative projects. The 27 subportals within the website (each
pertaining to a specific discipline of creative thought) allow for
quick cross-referencing and organized research.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.brainflower.com/about.html
BrainFlower is an international network of creative people. We want to
work towards Good Societies and encourage the spreading of good ideas.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.brainhead.com/
Brainhead.com, LLC.
Brainhead.com is a gathering place for those people who have new
ideas, business ideas, product ideas, movie ideas, book ideas, web
sites, or any kind of idea to post on the Internet in a place that
specializes in showcasing YOUR IDEAS.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.brightidea.com/welcome.asp
At Brightidea.com every idea has value. As a member, you can 'get
paid' to share ideas with thousands of people from around the world,
compete with other thinkers for cash and prizes, and even learn how to
turn your ideas into marketable products.
-------------------------------------------------
http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/cs
ResearchIndex (CiteSeer)
ResearchIndex is a scientific literature digital library that aims to
improve the dissemination and feedback of scientific literature, and
to provide improvements in functionality, usability, availability,
cost, comprehensiveness, efficiency, and timeliness.
Rather than creating just another digital library, ResearchIndex
provides algorithms, techniques, and software that can be used in
other digital libraries. ResearchIndex indexes Postscript and PDF
research articles on the Web, and provides the following features.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.creativitypool.com/
Creativity Pool
Welcome to a database full of creative and original ideas. The
Creativity Pool is the home of future innovation and tomorrow's most
(in)famous inventions. This service is basically free and works like
the penny cup next to the cash register. Have a brilliant suggestion
or ideas for a new invention? Add it and be rewarded. Looking for
inspiration or some great ideas for your business? Just ask. They may
already be there.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.e-dea.com/
e-dea!® is a idea commodity market, a creative exchange forum, and a
hosting service for innovators and businesses. e-dea!® is a venue
between creators and investors. however, we are not a brokerage and do
not act as an agent in the buying and selling businesses or
intellectual property. rather, e-dea!® provides posting services
similar to classified advertising. it also furnishes the ambiance and
atmosphere that encourages the communication and cooperation between
the parties, much like a fine restaurant.
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.ideadollar.com/
Ideadollar is a next-generation internet company, merging the concepts
of communities and e-commerce, with a new form of sponsorship.
We are breaking the model for the inventions and ideas industry,
becoming the first ever global idea factory!
-------------------------------------------------
http://www.yet2.com/app/about/about/corp
yet2.com is the first global forum for buying and selling technology
on the Internet. A virtual technology marketplace, yet2.com offers
companies and individuals the unprecedented opportunity to
conveniently and privately purchase, sell, license and research some
of the world's most valuable intellectual assets.
Spanning all industries and areas of research and development,
yet2.com is a community where technology officers, scientists and
researchers can unearth cutting-edge discoveries as well as new
applications for tried and true technologies. yet2.com helps companies
extract value from undervalued or unused technologies by streamlining
the traditionally lengthy and ineffective process of technology
transfer.
==============================
IDEA MARKETS GENERAL RESOURCES
==============================
http://www.creax.com/resources/creax_net.html
"AN INSPIRATIONAL LIST OF CREATIVITY AND INNOVATION RESOURCES"
http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html
Idea Futures
(a.k.a. Prediction Markets, Information Markets)
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/guide.html
Technology Review ? Innovation Futures
http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifpubs.html#Hanson
Idea Futures Publications
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