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| Subject:
quants / excel
Category: Business and Money > Economics Asked by: k9queen-ga List Price: $20.00 |
Posted:
18 Nov 2003 17:17 PST
Expires: 18 Dec 2003 17:17 PST Question ID: 278023 |
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| Subject:
Re: quants / excel
Answered By: hibiscus-ga on 19 Nov 2003 01:14 PST |
Hi k9queen,
First off, let's start with some summary statistics. I've named the
variables in the model STATE, SPENDING, SCORE, NEW_CURR.
Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum
SPENDING 5068.82857 1085.69144 3280.00000 8162.00000
SCORE 631.17143 27.57502 580.00000 675.00000
NEW_CURR 0.57143 0.50210 0.00000 1.00000
The only thing in this table that might be useful is the mean of
NEW_CURR. Remember that, since NEW_CURR is a dummy variable that can
take the values of 0 and 1 only, its mean of 0.57143 is also the
percentage of the number of states that have adopted the new
curriculum (where NEW_CURR = 1). So 57.143% have adopted this
curriculum.
Now we run a regression of the variables SPENDING and NEW_CURR on
SCORE (since, surely, the thing we're interested in finding is the
effect of spending and the curriculum choice on student performance).
The resulting output (from TSP, and including a bunch of information
that will be of little or no value to you):
Current sample: 1 to 35
Number of observations: 35
Mean of dep. var. = 631.171 LM het. test = 7.01475 [.008]
Std. dev. of dep. var. = 27.5750 Durbin-Watson = 1.97525 [<.516]
Sum of squared residuals = 537880. Jarque-Bera test = 7.84107 [.020]
Variance of residuals = 16299.4 Ramsey's RESET2 = 338.984 [.000]
Std. error of regression = 127.669 Schwarz B.I.C. = 221.919
R-squared = .116601 Log likelihood = -218.364
Adjusted R-squared = .089831
Estimated Standard
Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value
SPENDING .119913 .655148E-02 18.3032 [.000]
NEW_CURR -2.98439 44.8987 -.066469 [.947]
I just copied this output straight from the TSP output file, so you
can ignore most of the numbers above.
The first thing to note is the R-squared value of 0.116601. So only
11.66% of the variance in scores is 'predicted' by the variables in
the model, SPENDING, and NEW_CURR. That's not a lot of predictive
power.
When we look at the estimated coefficients of the regression, the
coefficient on SPENDING is 0.119913 with a standard error of
0.655148x10^-2, which is small enough that the coefficient is
significant. This says that for every extra dollar spent on students,
SAT scores rise by 0.119913.
If you check this yourself by just multiplying some numbers by
0.119913, you'll see that it's a very rough predictor of the data in
the table provided, but this explains why the R-squared is so low.
The second coefficient, that for the dummy variable NEW_CURR, is
-2.984139, but it has a standard error of 44.8987, which is much
higher than the coefficient itself, and so this coefficient can not be
considered significant.
What this tells us is that spending does have some (though quite
limited) value as a predictor for SAT scores, but the adoption of the
new curriculum does not have any value as a score predictor.
I hope this was clear enough for you. If you have any problems,
please ask for a clarification.
Best of luck with your studies.
Hibiscus |
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