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Subject:
quants / excel
Category: Business and Money > Economics Asked by: k9queen-ga List Price: $20.00 |
Posted:
18 Nov 2003 17:17 PST
Expires: 18 Dec 2003 17:17 PST Question ID: 278023 |
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Subject:
Re: quants / excel
Answered By: hibiscus-ga on 19 Nov 2003 01:14 PST |
Hi k9queen, First off, let's start with some summary statistics. I've named the variables in the model STATE, SPENDING, SCORE, NEW_CURR. Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum SPENDING 5068.82857 1085.69144 3280.00000 8162.00000 SCORE 631.17143 27.57502 580.00000 675.00000 NEW_CURR 0.57143 0.50210 0.00000 1.00000 The only thing in this table that might be useful is the mean of NEW_CURR. Remember that, since NEW_CURR is a dummy variable that can take the values of 0 and 1 only, its mean of 0.57143 is also the percentage of the number of states that have adopted the new curriculum (where NEW_CURR = 1). So 57.143% have adopted this curriculum. Now we run a regression of the variables SPENDING and NEW_CURR on SCORE (since, surely, the thing we're interested in finding is the effect of spending and the curriculum choice on student performance). The resulting output (from TSP, and including a bunch of information that will be of little or no value to you): Current sample: 1 to 35 Number of observations: 35 Mean of dep. var. = 631.171 LM het. test = 7.01475 [.008] Std. dev. of dep. var. = 27.5750 Durbin-Watson = 1.97525 [<.516] Sum of squared residuals = 537880. Jarque-Bera test = 7.84107 [.020] Variance of residuals = 16299.4 Ramsey's RESET2 = 338.984 [.000] Std. error of regression = 127.669 Schwarz B.I.C. = 221.919 R-squared = .116601 Log likelihood = -218.364 Adjusted R-squared = .089831 Estimated Standard Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value SPENDING .119913 .655148E-02 18.3032 [.000] NEW_CURR -2.98439 44.8987 -.066469 [.947] I just copied this output straight from the TSP output file, so you can ignore most of the numbers above. The first thing to note is the R-squared value of 0.116601. So only 11.66% of the variance in scores is 'predicted' by the variables in the model, SPENDING, and NEW_CURR. That's not a lot of predictive power. When we look at the estimated coefficients of the regression, the coefficient on SPENDING is 0.119913 with a standard error of 0.655148x10^-2, which is small enough that the coefficient is significant. This says that for every extra dollar spent on students, SAT scores rise by 0.119913. If you check this yourself by just multiplying some numbers by 0.119913, you'll see that it's a very rough predictor of the data in the table provided, but this explains why the R-squared is so low. The second coefficient, that for the dummy variable NEW_CURR, is -2.984139, but it has a standard error of 44.8987, which is much higher than the coefficient itself, and so this coefficient can not be considered significant. What this tells us is that spending does have some (though quite limited) value as a predictor for SAT scores, but the adoption of the new curriculum does not have any value as a score predictor. I hope this was clear enough for you. If you have any problems, please ask for a clarification. Best of luck with your studies. Hibiscus |
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