Dear Motego,
Thank you for a very interesting question.
How do we define "world interest"? Is there a "common good"? And if
there is, what is it? These are not trivial questions. There is no
consensus on what is the optimal or utopian common good, and some
claim that there is no such a thing - in any event or outcome, only
one side (usually the powerful, hegemonic side) profits, while the
other, at the best case - is not disgruntled, because it doesn't feel
as if it had lost.
Game theory is one of the approaches that treats reality, as its name
implies, as a theoretical "game", whereas each player tries to
maximise its gains and cut its loses. In this case, we have a
conflict, with several possible outcomes:
- Iraq is ruled by a regime sympathetic to the US, and US leaves Iraq
with a sense of "victory".
- Iraq is ruled by a regime not sympathetic to the US and the West -
of Islamistic nature, or formed by Saddam's cronies - and the US
leaves Iraq "defeated"
- The US leaves Iraq before a regime stabilised itself there.
- The US never leaves Iraq.
For the US, the more favourable outcomes would be the first and the
last one, while the second and the third outcomes would benefit more
other "players".
But this is, as said before, only one approach to analyse the issue.
The reality might be more complex than a reduction to a "game" of
possible outcomes.
For example, in one of the possibilities (that seems, the best on face
value) a regime favourable to the West rises, and the US leaves the
country. However, one could claim, that this serves only Western
interests: the interests of some groups in Iraq are not fulfilled,
because they do not include a pro-Western state. The interests of some
other countries wishing to obtain some level of control, are not
fulfilled, because these countries (i.e., Iran, Saudi Arabia or
China), are not interested in a pro-Western regime. Please keep in
mind, also, that "pro-Western" does not imply "democratic". Hence,
whether this is a democratic regime or not, this may not serve the
liberties and wishes of many individuals in Iraq.
It could be claimed though, that while democracy is not a value in
itself - it reduces the damage to the majority and the minority.
Therefore, for the people who live in Iraq, democracy - without
reference to its alliance with the West - is a favourable outcome. Two
democratic regimes, it is claimed in the famous "democratic peace"
paradigm, do not go to war against each other. Therefore, a democratic
regime is also, in theory at least, less aggressive.
And there are wider audiences than the ones already addressed in this
model. For example, if the US leaves Iraq, but funds it heavily, or
funds its war when it is in Iraq, how does this affect the hungry in
Africa? How does the engagement of the US in Iraq affect the conflict
between Israel and its neighbours?
In other words, in an analysis that doesn't set any value as common
good (and it is very difficult to set such a value that will be
universally agreed upon. I bet that some see the best result in mass
religious conversion that will eliminate disbelieve and thus will
bring in their opinion, common good).
I could claim that freedom and equality are two important values that
are the common good of the world. If the US will promote peace, less
will be spent on wars, and perhaps more will be spent on promoting
equality and freedom.
In that aspect, in a value-driven analysis (you could, of course,
disagree with my idea of common good), I view the best outcome as one,
whereas a regime based on these values is set in Iraq, the US
withdraws, and cooperates in reducing global poverty and restrictions,
and promoting freedom and equality, which means prosperity.
I must concede that my vision is not a very realistic one. Right now,
we see how Western firms, mostly but not only American ones, profit
from the War, and their interest is to preserve this situation, or to
make the best gains of a possible withdrawal.
I will leave you with several interesting links:
Open Democracy <http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/issue-2-95.jsp> -
discussions on possible outcomes of the war and its aftermath.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "From Victory to Success:
Afterwar Policy in Iraq"
<http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/misc.php?storyID=13750> Foreign
Report with speculations on the aftermath of the war.
Iraq war <http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=245150> - a
Google Answer question, that seeks "positive aspects" of the war.
I hope this answered your question. Please contact me if you need any
further clarification on this answer before you tip/rate it. |
