Hitler reportedly signed Directive 16 on 16 July 1940.

When did the Allies find out about it?

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Request for Question Clarification by omnivorous-ga on 04 Jan 2004 13:38 PST

Bryan --

Getting closer.  Gen. William Donovan, who arrived in mid-July as
Pres. Franklin Roosevelt's personal representatives on the secret war,
knew of British Ultra decodes before the end of July -- though the
date is not specific, according to William Stevenson's book, "A Man
Called Intrepid" about eh founding of the American pre-cursor to the
CIA.  Donovan was supposed to leave for the U.S. by Aug. 1 but
continually delays his departure because of the imminent threat.

Then on Sept. 22, Roosevelt warned Churchill of imminent invasion of
the U.K. with information coming from American intercepts using Enigma
equipment.  Churchill informed his Cabinet the next day.

What Roosevelt didn't know is that Churchill knew even before hearing
from the American president, as he was getting faster intercepts of
German high command's communications.  Further, when Churchill learned
that Sea Lion was postponed, he never let Roosevelt know that the
imminent threat was gone.

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

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Clarification of Question by probonopublico-ga on 04 Jan 2004 21:16 PST

Hi, Omni

Many thanks for your further efforts.

William Stevenson's book is notoriously unreliable, ludicrously so in
some cases. In such circumstances, it's hard to separate fact from
fiction.

However, the Donovan angle is certainly interesting.

I don't know but I can't see why Hitler would have wanted to tell
anyone other than his High Command about Directive 16. Therefore I am
suspicious of the 'Enigma Explanation' which has been used as a
catch-all to explain the otherwise inexplicable. In any event, the
Germans had other higher grade codes (e.g. 'Fish') which cut in at
some time.

There were people around Hitler who believed that the real enemy was
Russia and maybe one of those would have advised MI6 one way or
another.

Today's the day, Omni, I just feel that you are going to do it ...

Well, I can hope, can't I?

Kindest regards

Bryan

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Request for Question Clarification by omnivorous-ga on 05 Jan 2004 08:00 PST

Bryan --

This question has the two of us ripping through our libraries (and
given me some additional thoughts on the Internet search too.)

I consulted Simon Singh's "The Code Book," which notes that code keys
changed on May 10, 1940 and the number of decryptions dropped
dramatically until Aug. 8.  Of course there were different codes being
used by Luftwaffe, Navy and OKW (Wehrmacht).  Still, it would lend
credence to your theory that Enigma/Ultra decryptions were NOT the
source of information.

A renewed Google search turns up a couple of authorities that I don't
have access to.  A review of Egbert Kieser's book, "Hitler on the Door
Step: Operation Sea Lion":
Stone & Stone Books
Review of "Hitler on the Door Step: Operation Sea Lion" (Bill Stone, Mar. 27, 1998)
http://stonebooks.com/archives/980327.shtml

Stone also recommends Ronald Wheatley's 1959 book, "Operation Sea
Lion: German Plans for the Invasion of England."  Stone's
recommendation of this book is for its scholarly completeness, though
it's well before the public knowledge of Ultra, which came during the
1970s.

Google search strategy:
"Operation Sea Lion" + British + warning
"Operation Sea Lion" + "Directive 16"

I'm not optimistic here . . .  Ultimately, finding the answer may rely
on access to good Churchill/World War II libraries, such as the
International Churchill Society:
http://www.winstonchurchill.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=13

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

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Clarification of Question by probonopublico-ga on 05 Jan 2004 11:15 PST

Hi, Omni

Many thanks for your further great work which throws some more
fascinating insights on the subject.

However, I am now inclined to believe that no one, not even the Great
Omni is going to succeed this time.

Perhaps, if you would like to post an answer, I can at least give you
some scant recompense for your endeavours.

Regards

Bryan

Bryan --

I guess the answer is: according to William Stevenson's book, it was
between July 19 and Aug. 1, 1940 and Enigma was used to decrypt radio
messages.  By the way, Singh notes that even important messages often
took 2 days to decipher, so it's likely to be in the July 21-Aug. 1
period.

I've requested a copy of R.J. Overy's book, "The Battle of Britain :
The myth and the reality" to see if it sheds any light on the issue. 
It was published in 2001.

I'm also going to see if Keiser's book, which should have substantial
military detail, is available somewhere here in the Seattle area.  You
have my curiousity up as well.

I'm also curious to know where a researcher would go if they wanted to
review old Bletchley Park messages . . .

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

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Clarification of Answer by omnivorous-ga on 09 Jan 2004 13:27 PST

Bryan --

Richard Overy's book, "The Battle of Britain," doesn't provide
conclusive evidence one way or the other -- though he says that an
invasion was widely expected.  In fact Prof. Overy (Kings College)
notes that Hitler only started talking about invading Russia on July
31, though the German Army had already begun contingency planning in
early July for operations against Russia in eastern Europe.  That, of
course, lends credence to you theory that perhaps it was in the
interest of the German Army to leak the Sea Lion threat.

Further, post-war debriefs quoted by Overy cast doubt on the will of
the German Army to conduct amphibious operations.  Gen. Gunther von
Blmentritt, an Army staff officer said, "It must not be forgotten that
we Germans are a continental people.  We knew far too little of
England.  We knew literally nothing of amphibious operations."

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Omigod ... You live in Seattle?

How come I never saw you when I was there?

Give my regards to Bill.

Many thanks for trying ... It was greatly appreciated.

Bryan

Dear probonopublico-ga 
Bryan,
I cannot identify the date for discovery of Directive 16. I can
identify the date of the discovery of the OKW (Oberkommando der
Wehrmacht or OKW (Armed Forces High Command)) documents and plans
relating to the Operation Sealion.  Whether they are the same I am
unable to say. Also, I cannot find confirmation of the date.

Web site with chronological war news
25 September 1945
"In Occupied Germany......Meanwhile, secret German OKW documents dated
August 17, 1940 which deal with the plan to invade Britain (code named
Operation Sealion) are discovered by the Allies."
http://www.onwar.com/chrono/1945/sep45/25sep45.htm

Two entries from the Liddell Hart Centre for Military Archives 

"typescript translations of German directives on the planned invasion
of the UK, Operation SEELÖWE, 1940, taken from documents captured by
the Allies in 1945;"
http://www.kcl.ac.uk/lhcma/summary/sa60-001.htm

This catalogue entry is dated 1947, but its discovery date is not. 
"Papers from German sources relating to the Battle of Britain and
Operation SEA-LION in 1940, including transcripts of directives and
orders issued by Adolf Hitler, FM Wilhelm Keitel, Gen Alfred Jodl and
Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring, Jun-Oct 1940, and proposals by Gen
Schmid of the German Air Force Operations Staff (Intelligence) for the
conduct of air warfare against Britain, dated 22 Nov 1939."
http://www.kcl.ac.uk/lhcma/cats/liddell/li151501.htm

This may be useful. Full extract of directive 16 (not corroborated)
http://2ndww.tripod.com/England/sealion.html

answerfinder-ga

Hi, Answerfinder

Very many thanks for looking and for the useful links but I was, of
course, looking for something like:

Naturally, Admiral Canaris emailed his friends in MI6, 12 minutes later ...

Or something to that effect.

Regards

Bryan

Bryan --

It's been my understanding that the Battle of Britain, which began in
August, 1940, was widely viewed as presaging invasion:
http://www.rickard.karoo.net/warsmain3.html

It was the spotting of barges accumulating in the Netherlands (via
aerial reconnaissance) that confirmed it among British military.

Perhaps a more precise question would be: when did the Allies learn of
invasion plans from Ultra (Enigma) intercepts:
http://www.pan.net/history/enigma/enigma13.htm

Churchill's grandson believes that PM Winston Churchill knew even
before the Battle of Britain began:
http://www.winstonchurchill.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=604

Try this search strategy:
"Operation Sea Lion" + "Ultra intercepts"
"Operation Sea Lion" + Enigma

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Bryan --

See this source, which uses F.W. Winterbotham's book, "The Ultra
Secret," Harper & Row, New York, 1974 as its authority:
http://cghs.dade.k12.fl.us/normandy/deception/ultra_enigma.htm

Though you may already have excellent resources, William L. Shirer's
"The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" does an excellent job detailing
the operational planning within the German military, including strong
differences between Halder (Army) and Raeder (Navy) on the sufficiency
of plans.  Shirer doesn't discuss what and when the British knew --
though he does discuss defensive preparations extensively during
Operation Eagle (Battle of Britain).

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Hi, Omnivorous

Many thanks for the great links.

It certainly seems that Churchill was very prescient, even before
Hitler signed Directive on the 16 July 1940. And, with hindsight, it
now seems fairly obvious.

However, where is that elusive email that Canaris sent?

Regards

Bryan

Bryan --0

Looking back, things were happening with stunning swiftness.  Here are
some dates from Shirer's book:
*  December, 1939 -- Army and Luftwaffe look at problem of invading
Britain.  Little done.
*  January, 1940 -- Navy and Air Force reject an Army plan for invation
*  May 21, 1940 -- Adm. Raeder has private discussions with Hitler
regarding invasion on the day that German forces reach the sea at
Abbeville
*  May 27, 1940 -- Rear Adm. Kurt Fricke presents new plan, starting
to focus on landing craft, of which the Germans had none
*  June 21, 1940 -- Hitler accepts French surrender at Compiegne
*  June 29, 1940 -- Gen. Jodl presents a plan for continuing the war
against England, including a siege of the islands and a troop landing
*  July 2, 1940 -- Hitler orders preliminary planning for the invasion
*  July 15, 1940 -- go ahead for Operation Sea Lion (after the war
Field Marshal von Runstedt said it was a bluff)
*  July 17, 1940 -- OKA orders 13 divisions moved in preparation for
first wave of invasion
*  July 29, 1940 -- Naval War Staff advises delaying Sea Lion until May, 1941)
*  July 31, 1940 -- Hitler announces intention to invade Russia to his Army staff
*  Aug. 1, 1940 -- Directive No. 17 issued by Hitler regarding conduct
of air and naval war in preparation for Sea Lion.  Preparations to be
complete by Sept. 15, 1940.
*  Sept. 14, 1940 -- Sea Lion postponed in the belief that Luftwaffe
attacks would bring about English surrender
*  Sept. 19, 1940 -- Hitler orders troops assembled for Sea Lion dispersed
*  Oct. 12, 1940 -- invasion formally postponed to spring or early summer of 1941
*  Dec. 18, 1940 -- Hitler's orders to plan for May, 1941 invasion of Rusia
*  April 30, 1941 -- Hitler sets June 22 as the date for attack on Russia
*  May 10, 1941 -- Rudolf Hess flies to Scotland (bailing out of his
Messerschmidt) in attempt to negotiate peace with English opposition
politicians
*  June 22, 1941 -- German attack on Russia begins
*  Late 1971 -- Ray Tomlinson sends first e-mail message:
http://www.darwinmag.com/read/010102/buzz_mover.html

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Hi, Omnivorous.

Very many thanks for the further work.

I already have the Shirer and the Winterbottom stuff.

I'll keep the question open, just in case someone can produce a
definite revelation.

If not ...

We'll have to wait and see.

Regards

Bryan

Just in case you are looking for the book ?Hitler Confronts England?
by Walter Ansel (1960), here is an online version:
http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=10330382

Regards,
Freddy

Hi, Freddy

Many thanks for the further link.

Regards

Bryan