Thanks for your question. First, let me request that if any of the
following is unclear or if you require any further research ? please
don?t hesitate to ask me for a clarification.
You requested the adoption rate for Apple ipods from launch to date by
quarter. Also where there any proforma predictions made along the way
(by Jobs) and have they been met.
I?ve got to tell you, this was more challenging then finding the Tivo
data. Ok, here we go?
iPod was announced to the public in October 2001, but Apple did not
begin recording sales of iPod until late in the first half of 2002.
The PC version was released in 2003 (likely responsible for the
breakaway 2003 Xmas season sales).
Approximate total number of iPods sold through 12/31/03 ? two million units
Jobs claims iPod and iTunes are expected to account for 50% of Apple
revenues in the future ? so, this is a total change of strategy for
the company. Currently account for 9% (inclusive of Q1 04).
Quarterly unit sales data
Q1 2004, quarter just ended 12/31/03 ? 730,000 units sold
Q4 2003 ? 336,000 ($121m)
Q3 2003 ? 304,000 ($111m)
Q2 2003 ? 78,000 (sold out?hence the drop?)
Q1 2003 ? 219,000
Q4 2002 ? 140,000
Note ? Q4 2002 was the first time Apple broke out iPod sales; however,
total 2002 unit sales are reported in the company?s 10-k ? we
therefore know that in total 381,000 units were sold in 2002; 140,000
in the fourth quarter and therefore 241,000 were sold in Q2 and Q3
(since Apple states that sales only began late in the first half of
2002, I am assuming no sales were made in Q1 2002). I do not have a
split for Q2/Q3. 2002 iPod revenues were $143m.
Some iTunes Data
+ iTunes launched in April 2002
+ iTunes now accounts for 70% of legally downloaded music
+ Through 12/31 a total of 30 million songs had been downloaded for fee
Specific Steve Jobs Predictions
I have not found any specific numerical predictions?you can run
searches such as ?steve jobs predicts? and ?steve jobs believes?
(exactly as is, with the quotes ? allows you to search on phrases in
Google) and you?ll get some non-quantitative quotes, but very few that
are iPod related.
For example, ?Apple chief executive Steve Jobs believes the
Hewlett-Packard deal will lift sales of iPods.?
I hope this response adequately addresses your request. Please let me
know if you are in need of additional information concerning this
IPod Sales Boost Apple Profits
Detailed Notes from Q4 Conference Call
iPod Sales Pass Two Million
Two iPod Sales a Minute
Apple Corporate Briefing
Apple's Q4: iPods, Retail Stores Doing Well, Thank You
National Bank Financial ?Top News?
Apple Computer Fiscal 2003 10-K
Apple Computer Fiscal 2002 10-K