Hi kemlo,
According to The British Library "The Shadow Of The Moon An Exhibition
Of British Solar Eclipse Mapping In The Eighteenth Century" the first
accurate predictions within 4 minutes were made by Edmond Halley:
http://www.mapforum.com/07/bleclip.htm
"Although nowadays we regard eclipses of the sun as natural albeit
spectacular astronomical events, even as late as the eighteenth
century they were thought to be the work of the devil. Eclipses have
been predicted and diagrams drawn of them from at least the time of
Aristotle and Claudius Ptolemy, but true eclipse maps, in the sense of
geographical maps showing the paths of eclipses are a phenomenon of
the eighteenth century onwards. Diagrams of solar eclipses occur in
the Renaissance versions of Ptolemy's astronomical work the Almagest
and, for example, Peter Apian's Cosmographicus first published in
1524. Accurate predictions, however, did not emerge until Edmond
Halley (1656-1742) revolutionised astronomy and introduced the eclipse
map and many other scientific thematic maps which influenced
map-makers for the rest of the century and beyond."
[edit]
"The first ever eclipse map, by Edmond Halley, predicting the eclipse
of 1715. Halley also made history by predicting the timing to within
four minutes. The heavily shaded oval disc represents the umbra or
moon's shadow."
See map of Halley's prediction:
http://www.mapforum.com/07/blechall.htm
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Biography: Halley, Edmond 1656-1742
http://seds.lpl.arizona.edu/nineplanets/nineplanets/help.html#halley
"English astronomer who applied Newton's laws of motion to historical
comet data and predicted correctly the reappearance of the comet which
now bears his name.
Edmond Halley
Born: 8 Nov 1656 in Haggerston, Shoreditch (near London), England
Died: 14 Jan 1742 in Greenwich (near London), England
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Halley's Maps and Descriptions of the 1715 Total Solar Eclipse
http://www.aas.org/publications/baas/v31n3/aas194/19.htm
"Edmond Halley was perhaps the first to present eclipse maps to the
public in their common current form: looking down on the Earth's
surface from above. For the 1715 total solar eclipse that crossed
England, he prepared broadsheets showing the eclipse path and
describing what would be expected. After the eclipse, he corrected the
eclipse path, and added the path and description of the 1724 total
solar eclipse. His separate path for the latter resembles the path of
the August 11, 1999, eclipse as drawn by Fred Espenak in his NASA
Reference Publication. All four of the Halley maps are in the Houghton
Library, Harvard University. Halley described observations of the 1715
eclipse in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,
including both his own observations and those of other observatories.
The need for advising the public about forthcoming eclipses and how to
observe them safely continues from Halley's time down to this day."
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A fascinating article can be found on the following page
Eclipse: The Celestial Phenomenon That Changed the Course of History (2001)
http://www.nap.edu/openbook/030907438X/html/174-195.htm
"Edmond Halley was the first person able to predict with reasonable
accuracy the tracks of total solar eclipses, such as those cross..."
===============
Now, if you want to go back into ancient times, Thales of Milete
accrately predicted the year for first total eclipse of the sun.
NASA - Eclipse 99 - Frequently Asked Questions
http://education.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/pages/faq.html
When were solar eclipses first predicted accurately?
"The Babylonians knew how to predict lunar eclipses with high
accuracy, but solar eclipses are far more difficult because the
'footprint' on the earth is only a few tens of miles across and
requires arc minute positional accuracy and forecasting for any
specific locale. Apparently Thales ca 610 BC is credited with
predicting a solar eclipse using knowledge of a previous eclipse 47
years before and adding the Saros cycle. He predicted the year, but
not the month and the day. It wasn't until Ptolemy's time that solar
eclipse forecasting became more precise and useful."
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Thales of Miletus
Born: about 624 BC in Miletus, Asia Minor (now Turkey)
Died: about 547 BC in Miletus, Asia Minor (now Turkey)
http://www-gap.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Mathematicians/Thales.html
"It is reported that Thales predicted an eclipse of the Sun in 585 BC.
The cycle of about 19 years for eclipses of the Moon was well known at
this time but the cycle for eclipses of the Sun was harder to spot
since eclipses were visible at different places on Earth. Thales's
prediction of the 585 BC eclipse was probably a guess based on the
knowledge that an eclipse around that time was possible. The claims
that Thales used the Babylonian saros, a cycle of length 18 years 10
days 8 hours, to predict the eclipse has been shown by Neugebauer to
be highly unlikely since Neugebauer shows in [11] that the saros was
an invention of Halley. Neugebauer wrote [11]:-
... there exists no cycle for solar eclipses visible at a given place:
all modern cycles concern the earth as a whole. No Babylonian theory
for predicting a solar eclipse existed at 600 BC, as one can see from
the very unsatisfactory situation 400 years later, nor did the
Babylonians ever develop any theory which took the influence of
geographical latitude into account.
After the eclipse on 28 May, 585 BC Herodotus wrote:
... day was all of a sudden changed into night. This event had been
foretold by Thales, the Milesian, who forewarned the Ionians of it,
fixing for it the very year in which it took place. The Medes and
Lydians, when they observed the change, ceased fighting, and were
alike anxious to have terms of peace agreed on.
Longrigg in [1] even doubts that Thales predicted the eclipse by
guessing, writing:-
... a more likely explanation seems to be simply that Thales happened
to be the savant around at the time when this striking astronomical
phenomenon occurred and the assumption was made that as a savant he
must have been able to predict it."
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Technical Data:
http://www.solarspace.co.uk/Sun.htm
"Brief History:-The Sun's first solar eclipse was predicted in 585BC"
===============================================================================
Our Star The Sun
http://www.ccsn.nevada.edu/planetarium/sun.html
"Significant Dates
585 BC: First solar eclipse successfully predicted"
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Solar eclipse From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse
"A solar eclipse can only be seen in a band across the Earth as the
Moon's shadow moves across its surface, while a total or annular
eclipse is actually total or ring-formed in only a small band within
this band (the eclipse path), and partial elsewhere (total eclipse
takes place where the umbra of the Moon's shadow falls, whereas a
partial eclipse is visible where the penumbra falls). The full band is
generally around 100 km across. The eclipse path will be widest if the
Moon happens to be at perigee, in which case the eclipse path alone
can reach 270 km in diameter.
Total solar eclipses are rare events. Although they occur somewhere on
the Earth every 18 months or so, it has been estimated that they recur
at any given spot only every 300-400 years. And after waiting so long,
the total solar eclipse only lasts for a few minutes, as the Moon's
umbra moves eastward at over 1700 km per hour. Totality can never last
more than 7min 40 sec, but is usually a good deal shorter. During each
millennium there are typically fewer than 10 total solar eclipses
exceeding 7 minutes. The last time this happened was June 30, 1973.
Those alive today probably won't live to see it happen again on June
25, 2150. The longest total solar eclipse during the 8,000-year period
from 3000 BC to 5000 AD will occur on July 16, 2186. Totality will
last 7 min 29 sec. (eclipse predictions by Fred Espenak, NASA/GSFC.)"
[edit]
"Calculating the date of a solar eclipse
If you know the date and time of a (solar) eclipse, you can predict
other eclipses using eclipse cycles. The saros and inex are well-know
eclipse cycles."
[edit]
Historical solar eclipses
"Herodotus wrote that Thales of Milete predicted an eclipse which
occurred during a war between Medians and Lydians. Soldiers on both
sides put down their weapons and declared to peace as a result of the
eclipse. Exactly which eclipse was involved has remained uncertain,
although the issue has been studied by hundreds of ancient and modern
authorities. One likely candidate took place on May 28, 585 BC,
probably near the Halys river, in the middle of modern Turkey."
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Claudius Ptolemy
Born: about 85 in Egypt
Died: about 165 in Alexandria, Egypt
http://www-gap.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Mathematicians/Ptolemy.html
===============================================================================
CLAUDIUS PTOLEMY "TETRABIBLOS"
http://www.kronosofia.dk/frames/side/biblioteket/tetrabiblos/tetrabiblos.html#side28
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Fascinating information at: 25 FAQs about Eclipses (The Astronomy Cafe)
http://www.astronomycafe.net/qadir/amoone.html
"How do computers predict eclipses?
Astronomers first have to work out the orbital mechanics of how the
Earth and Moon orbit the Sun under the influences of the gravitational
fields of these three bodies. From Newton's laws of motion, they
mathematically solve for the motions of these bodies in three
dimensional space taking into account the fact that these bodies have
finite size and are not perfect spheres, and that the Earth and Moon
are not homogeneous bodies. From careful observations, they then feed
into these complex equations the current positions and speeds of the
Earth and Moon, and then program the computer to 'integrate' these
equations forward or backward in time to construct ephemerides of the
relative positions of the Moon and Sun as seen from the vantage point
of the Earth. Eclipses are specific configurations of these bodies
which can be identified in the computer runs and captured. Current
eclipse forecasts are accurate to less than a minute in time over a
time span of hundreds of years."
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Eclipse 99
http://education.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/pages/traditions_Calendars.html#Predictions
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Chasing the Solar Eclipse by Bill Kramer
http://www.eclipse-chasers.com/chase.htm
Google Search:
total eclipse sun first prediction
solar eclipse first map
solar eclipse first predicted
eclipse sun prediction
Edmund Halley
Edmond Halley
Thales of Milet
Best regards,
tlspiegel |
