Dear researcher,
I am in need of some assistance and need to find an answer to the
following questions:

1: With how much could the sea level rise if our ice capes would melt?
Needed: Source and what the source based these numbers on.

2: How many % of the world is covered by water now and how many %
would be covered in water if sea level was raised with:
2:1, 1 meter
2:2, # m from question 1

3: How much of the ice capes (in % and square meters) would have to
melt to raise the seal level 1 meter.

4: Would natural phenomenons such as tide waves and tornados occour
more frequently over land if the sea level was raised, why if so?

5: Which major US cities would be lost if the sea level was raised with 1 meter?

6: Approximately, how many US citizens' homes would be lost under sea if
the sea level was raised with 1 meter?

7: Approximately, how many in the world would have their homes under
water if the sea level was raised with 1 meter?

Some numbers I?ve gotten can be found at:
http://www.nix-step.com/fastfacts.html

---

Request for Question Clarification by techtor-ga on 12 Feb 2004 07:46 PST

Hello Puppetmaster,
Only a few of the questions seem directly answerable in the way you
intended. I found answers for question 1, though on the others I could
not find information that directly answers them.

I was able to find though websites that answer your questions in a
different fashion... such as for question 2.2, I found a map showing
how the Earth would look like if all the ice were melted, and for the
questions referring to the US, I found a site stating how much land or
population would be lost, given a specific rise in water level. Would
you accept these in case I could not get your exact statistics, or do
you need the questions answered as they are?

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 12 Feb 2004 12:01 PST

A map would be little help to me in this matter as I need the numbers.
Population lost due to higher water level I'd say is the same thing as
number of people losing their homes, just another way of saying it.

I realize not all the questions are easy to answer but I do need an
answer to just these questions.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 12 Feb 2004 14:54 PST

70/30 is the water/land ratio atm, still need an answer to the remaining questions.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 14 Feb 2004 01:19 PST

techtor-ga, in what way can you give me an answer to the other questions?

---

Request for Question Clarification by techtor-ga on 14 Feb 2004 22:39 PST

Hello Puppetmaster, 
Sorry if I took long in responding. Going over your questions, Quesion
1 could be answered. On Question 7, I found info that mentions some
countries that would be inundated if the sea level would be raised one
meter, but I'm not sure I could find everything. There are webpages
I've found mentioning possible effects of sea level rise at levels
other than one meters, such as one mentioning that 25% of the US would
be underwater if the rise would be 10 meters. But generally, most of
my sources say that a one-meter rise would affect only coastal areas
and a few countries that are near sea level, like Bangladesh. Not
much, though the sources do give a fairly good picture of the effects
of sea level rise, despite the lack of some needed numbers.

I still couldn't find a percentage of the ice needed to raise the
water level one meter, but would it be all right to calculate an
estimate of that based on the answer to Question 1? Also, on Question
4, there are no mentions of tidal waves or tornados in my sources, so
I believe the answer is no, but to establish a relationship between
tornados and sea level seems difficult to me.

Just let me know me what you would prefer to be done. Thanks.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 14 Feb 2004 23:21 PST

Please do calculate, but please include the way you reasoned your way
to the answer and state your source for the numbers used.

For question 7 I am mainly looking for very rough number, by natural
reasons it is rather hard to give an exact answer. If you could
include the areas / countries that will be hardest affected that would
be great (some estimates of the number of casualties per area also
would be even better).

For question 4, is a tornado not building up strength at sea? And does
it not get weaker as it's moving over land? If the % of water that
covers the earth increases there will be larger areas for tornados to
gather strength, before going to land. Would the increased area
covered by water make it possible for larger tornadoes for an example?

You had any problems with 5 and 6?

---

Request for Question Clarification by techtor-ga on 15 Feb 2004 09:37 PST

With Qs 5 and 6, I see a few cities mentioned, like those at coasts,
such as San Francisco and New York. A list of all US cities what would
be affected by a 1 meter sea level raise seems unavailable, and
neither is there a definite number of US citizens.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 15 Feb 2004 11:26 PST

It's the major cities I am interested in, and how many per city that
will "die" if possible

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 18 Feb 2004 01:10 PST

How is your research proceeding?

---

Request for Question Clarification by techtor-ga on 18 Feb 2004 01:47 PST

Hello, sorry for not checking in very often. It's proving very
difficult to find the exact information that you are looking for...
there isn't even much of other figures to calculate an estimate for.
Such as the major US cities, how many people in each would be lost, I
doubt this can be found.

Perhaps you could settle for only a few of the questions and you could
lower your price for this question posting, and ask the rest in
another question posting. For new, 1 could definitely be answered, 2
and 7 partially, but hopes are doubtful on the rest. If another
researcher could find that information, he or she could check in here
to help you later on.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 18 Feb 2004 02:06 PST

I realize it might be hard to find figures to it all.
Have you found:

Examples of cities that will be severly effected by a 1m raise in the
us? If so, how many?

Examples of countries/areas in the world that will be severly effected
by a 1m raise of the water level? If so, how many (larger ones).

Were you able to find a way to calculate a somewhat realistic answer to 3?

Qestion 4 is not of vital importance so if you can not find any real
answers to it I can do without it.

This is that which I really need. I could settle for not getting all
answers that I set out for, but I'd leave out the tip then.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 20 Feb 2004 05:38 PST

Dear techtor-ga,
Will you be able to answer the questions if modified as described?

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 23 Feb 2004 03:32 PST

Also, if you do not find it possible to answer them in the altered
way, in what way would you be able to answer them?

---

Request for Question Clarification by techtor-ga on 23 Feb 2004 04:18 PST

Hello Puppetmaster,
If I could answer your question, so far what I got are these:

1: I'll give this freely since it's only part of what you need. The
rise if the Polar ice caps fully melt would be 71-80 meters around the
world. But the Arctic won't contribute even 1 meter to this since its
ice is already displacing water, since there is no land in the Arctic.
Greenland and Antarctica are the main contributors to this rise.

2.1: Nothing yet.

2.2: Just the maps.

3: Nothing yet, But it could be calculated from the result from #1.

4:Nothing yet.

5 and 6: How much land area per US state would be underwater with a 1
meter rise. Cities I've seen mentioned in reports about sea level rise
are Boston, New York, and SF, thought I believe I can find more.

7: Sources that say something like "..1 meter raise will displace 7
million people...", plus various mentions of some areas in some
countries that may be submerged, etc.

Sorry that even your modified requests could not be that easily
answered. The information you need in complete form is certainly very
hard to get. In case you could be satisfied with fewer answers, you
can lower the price of your question before an answer is posted if you
feel it appropriate. Thank you.

---

Clarification of Question by puppetmaster-ga on 24 Feb 2004 03:37 PST

Please answer the questions you are able to after your best ability
per your last comment.

Puppetmaster,
Thanks for allowing to post my answer despite the possibility of
inadequacy for your original questions.

These are most of the sources that I could find that address the issue
of sea level rise. I know that most do not answer your original
questions, but they do give a good idea of the scope of the effect of
sea level rise and global warming. I hope you are able to find helpful
information in these websites.


For question 1:
Howstuffworks "If the polar ice caps melted, how much would the oceans rise?":
http://science.howstuffworks.com/question473.htm
Antarctica - 61 meters
Arctic - Not significant since ice is already in ocean and takes up
displacement; will not increase sea level if melted
Greenland - 7 meters

"What if all the ice melts?" Myths and realities
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/waterworld.html
- "...If all the icecaps in the world were to melt, sea level would
rise about 75 meters (250 feet)..."

USGS FS 002-00: Sea Level and Climate
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/
- Look at the statistics in the paper in the photo.



For question 2:
I could not find anything mentioning percentage of the world to be
submerged, though graphical representations are available.

Oceans Of The World
http://www.solcomhouse.com/oceans.htm
- 71% of Earth is covered by water.

Facts and figures on sea level rise
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/sealevel.html
- An article on sea level rise with minimal facts.

Planetary maps
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/spaceart/cylmaps.html
- See "Earth: Fully Unglaciated" map.

Sea Level Rise due to Global Climate Change: What's Next?
Nicki Richmond and Scott Barker
http://ecosystems.wcp.muohio.edu/studentresearch/climatechange02/sealevel/sealevel.htm
- Another article that shows the effects of sea level rise, and has a
lot of statistics, and a map.



For question 3: Let's say 71 meters is the rise if Greenland, the
Arctic and Antarctica all melt. The formula would be

n%  = 1 meter 
----  -----
100%   71 meters

100 x 1 
------- = n
71

n = 1.41% of the total ice of the regions mentioned would be needed to
raise the water one meter. So I believe the most accurate percentage
wouldn't stray far from this number.

I have not found a source online that mentions this statistic. 

Other sites on ice melting:
WORLDWATCH - Ice melt on the increase
http://www.upe.ac.za/botany/pssa/ice_melt.htm

Global Warming Effects on Sea Level Underestimated
http://www.gci.ch/Communication/DigitalForum/digiforum/ARTICLES/article2002/globalwarming.html
- This talks about how ice melts and contributes to sea level rise,
with a little statistics dashed in. It also says that glaciers in
Alaska and other areas are more contributive to sea level rise than
previously thought.
- Quote: "... The IPCC, which estimated global ice wastage of only 0.3
millimeters (0.012 inches) per year, probably underestimated the
contribution of glacier disintegration to sea level rise because
little data on the large, maritime glaciers in Alaska was available,
said Meier..."

Sea Level, Ice, and Greenhouses -- FAQ
http://www.faqs.org/faqs/sea-level-faq/

San Diego Earth Times, April 2000
Melting of earth's ice cover reaches new high
by Lisa Mastny, WorldWatch Institute
http://www.sdearthtimes.com/et0400/et0400s9.html



Answer to 4:
Based on what I've seen, generally sea level itself does not seem to
have much effect on the occurence of tornados and storms further
inland. It seems that El Niño and La Niña affect these even more, and
most likely it would be global warming itself rather than sea level
change that would affect them. But coastal areas are more vulnerable
to changes in weather due to sea level since the sea is not just
brought closer to them, but erosion and damage can affect people on
them sooner. It would seem that sea level change occurs alongside
climate/weather changes as effects of global warming, rather than one
as an effect of another.

123 Student - Global Warming - Mission Plan
http://www.123student.com/enivornment/1559.shtml
- Mentions that frequency of tornados and storms could change due to
temperature changes.

Dean's World: What's So Bad About Global Warming?
http://www.deanesmay.com/archives/000591.html
- Looks like a message thread. But there's this piece about sea level
rise and climate change: "...Tornados, storms, earthquakes, diseases,
etc are nature's way of keeping the population down, etc etc.
Obviously the population and our advanced technologies have bloomed
past these natural ways of keeping the planet in balance. So, let's
say the earth warms up, big chunks of Pole ice caps plump off into the
ocean, making them rise, soaking up land, yada yada, climates change,
desertification, the end of all human life..." (somewhere near the
middle of the page)

Climate Impacts in New York City: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Floods: Results
http://icp.giss.nasa.gov/research/ppa/2002/impacts/results.html
- This page implies a relationship between the rise and sea level and
the frequency of storms.

WHOI Sea Grant: Research/ECP/1998-2000
http://www.whoi.edu/science/seagrant/research/ecp/9800.html
- There is a mention of an article, "Impacts of Accelerated Sea Level
Rise in Storm-Induced Sedimentation on Southern New England Coastal
Wetlands" which also mentions that sea level rise and storm frequency
occur alonside each and not because of each other.

Sea Level Change During El Niño
http://www.naturalist.net/news/topex.html
- Another site explaining the relationship between El Niño and sea level rise.

Sea-Level Changes and their Effects
http://www.wspc.com/books/engineering/3919.html
- This is a book for sale. I could not quote any of its contents though.

EO Library: Global Warming Page 3
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarming/warming3.html
- Here is a site that says storms will be more frequent due to global
warming. It is also the third page of a document, see the right side
of the page for mavigation to the other pages.



For questions 5 and 6: 
EPA : Global Warming : Resource Center : Publications : Sea Level Rise
: Maps of Lands Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html
- Links to maps and lists the land area of states that would be lost
with a certain amount of sea level rise.

Climate Change Impacts on the US: Northeast. Educational Resources
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/education/northeast/ne-edu-6.htm
- Lists some cities in North America that would be most affected by
sea level rise.

USGS FS 002-00: Sea Level and Climate
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/
- "...A sea-level rise of 10 meters would flood about 25 percent of
the U.S. population, with the major impact being mostly on the people
and infrastructures in the Gulf and East Coast States..."

Chap. IX.- HOW TO USE THESE RESULTS TO PROJECT LOCAL SEA LEVEL
http://www.gcrio.org/EPA/sealevel/chap9.txt
- From a document on sea level calculation, shows average sea level
increase for the shores of major US cities (Many are listed here). You
can bet these would be most affected if sea level would rise.

Global warming and sea levels
http://whyfiles.org/091beach/5.html
- Just something about sea level in the US that could have some helpful facts.

A Study of Flood Risk from Sea Level Rise in Boston Region (PDF document)
http://www.scaccarium.info/hua/work/risk.pdf
- Something about Boston.

Sea Level Rise Could Threaten Beaches Along U.S. East Coast, Says Study
http://www.ecoworld.org/Home/articles2.cfm?TID=78

Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Barrier Islands
Case Study of Long Beach Island, New Jersey
By James G. Titus
Environmental Protection Agency
http://users.erols.com/jtitus/NJ/CM.html

USGS National Wetlands Research Center: Press Release 97-093
http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/releases/pr97_093.htm
- I didn't know whether to place this under question 4 or here, since
there are mentions of storm and hurricane occurence, but not in direct
relation to sea level.

http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/fact-sheet/fs175-99/
- The pictures show what might happen with a sea level rise. It also
shows the relationship between El Niño and sea level rise.



Answer to 7:
Bangladesh is mentioned as one that would have people displaced by a
1-meter rise of sea level. 100 million people would be displaced.
Other low-lying areas or frequently flooded areas, like the Maldives
and the Yangtze region in China are susceptible.

January 28, 2004: Troubling New Flows of Environmental Refugees (printable)
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update33_printable.htm
- Says 40 million people in Bangladesh would be relocated if a 1-meter
rise would occur. And quote: "Other Asian countries with rice-growing
river floodplains, including China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the
Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam, could boost the mass
exodus from rising seas to the hundreds of millions."

November 15, 2001: Rising Sea Level Forcing Evacuation of Island Country
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update2.htm
- All of maldives (311,000) will be displaced by a 1-meter rise.

Climate Change Gazette
Look for "Another century: Pollution legacy may linger"
http://old.e5.org/pages/ccgar100.htm
- Here, some people who live near the coast would lose homes from a 1-meter rise.

ECES - Global Warming: Sea Level Rise
http://eces.org/archive/ec/globalwarming/sealevel.shtml

Effects of sea level rise on the human population
http://users.aber.ac.uk/mjt1/effects.htm
- The pic of a list counts probably countries that would be most
affected by sea level increase. If you can't see it, you could use a
magnifying glass program like Virtual Magnifying Glass so you could
see it.

Climate.org - A Project of the Climate Institute
http://www.climate.org/pubs/climate_alert/articles/8.2/egypt.shtml
- Describes the effects of a one-meter rise in water level on the city
of Alexandria.

Global warming and sea level rise
http://www.coastal.edu/science/marine/msci302/slr.htm
- General facts, and also lists the areas that would be impacted most
by sea level rise (Maldives, Bangladesh, etc.)

No Going Back on Climate Change Convention
http://www.global-society-dialogue.org/zparikhkyoto.pdf 
- "A sea level rise of 1 meter is estimated to displace 7 million people..."

SD: Environment: Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Populations
and Agriculture: Direct and indirect effects of sea-level rise
http://www.fao.org/sd/EIdirect/EIre0047.htm
- Addresses sea level rise in India

ECES: Scientist warns sea level rise due to global warming could
submerge three of India's largest cities by 2020
http://eces.org/articles/000550.php
- About India again.

Geoscience Australia: Projects: Cities Project - Coastal Erosion,
Perth, Western Australia - 2003
http://www.ga.gov.au/urban/projects/perth_erosion.jsp

Background: SURVAS :Synthesis and Upscaling of Sea-Level Rise
Vulnerability Assessment Studies
http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/backgrou.htm
- This article has charts and maps of the cities around the world that
would be most affected by sea level rise.

Global Warming (The Warming of the Earth) - The Woods Hole Research Center
http://www.whrc.org/globalwarming/warmingearth.htm
- Click on Potential Outcome, go down to Sea level rise.
- Quote: "There are currently 46 million people around the world who
are at risk due to flooding from storm surges. With a 50 cm sea level
rise (approx. one and ½ feet), that number will increase to 92
million. Raise sea level 1 meter (about 3 feet) and the number of
vulnerable people becomes 118 million."

What Results from Global Warming?
http://www.epcc.pref.osaka.jp/apec/eng/earth/global_warming/dounaru.html
- Studies on effects in Japan.

Melting Ice Caps will submerge Cities, Report Warns
by UN Wire
9:44am 9th Dec, 2003
http://www.universalrights.net/news/display.php3?id=918
- More mention of cities that might be submerged. 



Others:
EPA: Global Warming: Resource Center Publications: Sea Level Rise:
Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Holding Back the Sea
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCost_of_Holding.html
Document PDF available for free:
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BPPAL/$File/cost_of_holding.pdf

EPA Global Warming Resource Center - Publications: Sea Level Rise Reports
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSeaLevelRiseIndex.html
- List of reports by the Environmental Protection Agency on sea level rise. 

Sea Level Rise as a Threat to Cultural Heritage (PDF document)
http://www.waddensea-secretariat.org/news/publications/Wsnl/Wsnl00-2/articles/07knottnerus.pdf

Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise
http://www.beachbrowser.com/Archives/Environment/August-99/GREENHOUSE-EFFECT-AND-SEA-LEVEL-RISE.htm
- A general facts document

Fw: [hydroinformatics-asia-pacific] Cimate Change
http://www.mail-archive.com/futurework@dijkstra.uwaterloo.ca/msg05953.html
- More general facts about ice melting and sea level rising

Researchers Say Rise in Global Sea Levels Underestimated - Green Nature
http://greennature.com/article882.html
- Another article with only a few facts about sea level rise.

Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Land Use
http://www.aussurvivalist.com/downloads/landuse.pdf
- About sea level rise in Australia.

Climate.org - A Project of the Climate Institute
http://www.climate.org/topics/sealevel/reading.shtml
- Sea level rise resources and links.

Natural Disasters Roundtable
Forum on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Disasters
Thurs. Oct. 25, 2001
James P. Bruce
http://dels.nas.edu/dr/docs/Bruce.pdf
- This is the concluding speech of the speaker named here.

Sea-Level Rise & Global Climate Change
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/all_reports/sea_level_rise/index.cfm
- A report detailing effects of sea level rise on coastal areas. It's
a publication for sale.

Nat'l Academies Press, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Disasters: (2002),
Natural Disasters Roundtable
http://books.nap.edu/books/NI000486/html/1.html
- Proceedings of a conference talking about the relationship between
sea level rise and coastal disasters.

Time to Evolve Webbed Feet? Global Warming and Rising Sea Levels
The Satya Interview with Lisa Mastny
http://www.satyamag.com/april01/mastny.html
- An interview with someone about global warming.



Google search terms used:
polar ice caps melt sea rise
polar ice caps melt % earth covered
polar ice caps melt percent earth covered
sea level raised 1 meter
sea level rise 1 meter
sea level rise one meter
sea level rise 1 meter us homes submerge
sea level rise 1 meter us homes submerge
sea level 1 meter rise effect
sea level rise us population 1 meter
sea level rise us population one meter
sea level rise us cities
sea level rise us cities 1 meter
sea level rise el nino
sea level rise one meter earth covered
sea level rise one meter earth covered percent 
sea level rise one meter world submerge

I hope this has been a most helpful answer. If you need anything else,
or have a problem with the answer, do please post a Request for
Clarification before rating and I shall respond as soon as I can.
Thank you.

Great and fast response/communication. Could not answer all questions
in the way I first wanted to, hence not 5 stars.

Sorry no one has answered yet. The following oppinions are a composite
of other opinions tempered with my own science background of 60 years.
I can't give you any info sources.  Dishonest estimate run as high as
600 meters of increased ocean depth. If there is presently 1,500,000
cubic kilometers of ice above the sea level that may be coming, and
the average area of water between present and future sealevel is
150,000,000 square kilometers. Divide = 0.01 kilometers = 10 meters
rise in ocean level.  Neil

All the numbers you are asking for are subject to minor errors,
opinions and a number of assumptions. Some of the numbers may not be
firm even at plus or minus 30% The area of Earth is about 558 million
square kilometers, so the ocean covers 390 million square kilometers.
I was way low on my previous estimate of the present area of the
oceans, so a 4 meter ocean level increase is about right if my
estimate of the ice is about correct.
 I estimate the area of the ocean would increase to 395 million square
kilometers. A one meter increase would result in about 391 million
square kilometers of ocean area.
 A one meter increase in ocean level would flood very little of most
coastal cities at high tide on days with low wind speed, but as much
as 20% of a typical coastal city would be flooded when a hurricane or
typhoon added storm surge to the high tide. Typically there would be
years to build dikes as they have in Holland. A 4 meter rise is
however beyond dikes and sea walls, and the homes of perhaps 1/2
billion people, world wide, would need to be abandoned, if the 4 meter
rise persisted.(A new ice age is likely to follow green house warming)
The USA would suffer about 1/2 as much as coastal third world country
cities. Assuming 4 meters is correct for all the ice, one meter would
be about 20% of the ice = 0.25 million cubic kilometers of ice.  Neil

I looked at the link provided by pupetmaster. When floating ice melts
the change in ocean level is typically negligible, as floating bodies
displace water equal to their mass.  If these quantities of grounded
ice are correct, a proportional adjustment would be 86 meters ocean
rise. 84 meters may be about correct as the area of ocean would
increase to about 410 million square kilometers.
 USA west coast cities would typically be little damaged by a 4 meter
rise, but 85 meters would be disaster not only for nearly all coastal
cities, but also for some river cities more than 100 miles from the
ocean. Salty water from the ocean would leak into many underground
fresh water tables less than 84 feet above present sea level. This is
called "salt water intrusion. Lakes and rivers more than 84 meters
above present sea level would not increase in area or height more than
slightly.
 Scientists are puzzled why the average ocean level has not changed by
a measureable amount even though perhaps 1% of the world's grounded
ice melted in the 20th century.  Neil

By the way, my thanks to Pafalafa-ga for helping me out on this question.