Parents are increasingly worried about letting their children be
outdoors alone.  They fear that there is an increase in risk of crime
against children.  Is there any evidence that this fear is justified? 
What are the statistics for stranger crime against children over the
past 100 years or so?

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Request for Question Clarification by answerfinder-ga on 29 Feb 2004 01:06 PST

Which country are you referring to?
answerfinder-ga

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Clarification of Question by jaws1-ga on 29 Feb 2004 06:11 PST

The UK.

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Request for Question Clarification by answerfinder-ga on 29 Feb 2004 07:18 PST

Dear jaws1-ga,
It is almost impossible to answer this question as crime statistics
over this period of time are affected by changes in level of reporting
to police and recording by them. ?Stranger crime? as you refer to it,
would be classified by the offence that was ultimately committed i.e.
murder, rape, abduction, and indecent assault.  I have found some
statistics for these crimes for the period 1898 ? 2002 but they do not
specify ages of the victims (except unlawful sexual intercourse with
females under age 13 and 16).  Would you like to see these statistics?
You could make your own inferences from the statistics if you wish.
They do seem to support the proposal that crime against children has
risen in past 100 years. They make very interesting reading. The
statistics are on a spreadsheet in excel format.

I can also refer you to a number of sites where the topic is discussed.
answerfinder-ga

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Clarification of Question by jaws1-ga on 29 Feb 2004 11:35 PST

That answer sounds like what I want and I would be very happy with the
information you have tracked down.

Dear jaws1-ga,
Thank you for answering my clarification request. While I cannot give
you direct statistics on 'stranger crime' for the past 100 years, I
hope this information will be of assistance.

The spreadsheet for recorded crimes in England and Wales for 1898 ?
2002 is available via the Home office web site. You will note that
most types of crime have risen since 1898. The abduction category may
be relevant for your purposes.
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/recordedcrime1.html 
Related Information section)

The direct link for the file is
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/100years.xls

This comment on indictable offences (those triable at a Crown Court)
since 1900 confirms the general rise in crime.
"The number of indictable offences per thousand population in 1900 was
2.4 and in 1997 the figure was 89.1. The graph records offences that
are reported to the police and  recorded by them. The British Crime
Survey estimates unreported crime; in 1997 56% of crimes were not
reported to the police. In earlier years, this figure was probably
higher and accounts for some of the increase."
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp99/rp99-111.pdf

You may also be interested in UK crime statistics for 1991 ? 2002
where you will note child abduction has risen.
http://www.police999.com/stats/crime2002-08.html

An in-depth discussion of the 2001/2002 statistics on child abduction 
http://www.crimereduction.gov.uk/violence12.htm?n28w

A discussion of our anxiety culture - 1995 statistics quoted
http://www.anxietyculture.com/crimefix.htm


I hope this answers your question. If it does not, or the answer is
unclear, then please ask for clarification of this research before
rating the answer. I shall respond to the clarification request as
soon as I receive it.
Thank you
answerfinder-ga

Search strategy
Variations of ?crime statistics? children child abduction UK ?100
years? victorian edwardian ?crimes against children? sex and similar
terms

This is a very helpful answer - unfortunately tends to confirm the
fears I said were behind the question