I'm trying to convince my wife that I'll be safe riding my bicycle to
work. I'd like to know the relative probability of dying on a 5 mile
trip taken by car or bike over the same route (in Palo Alto). The web
page http://www.bicyclinginfo.org/bc/perspective.htm makes the obvious
observation that, because nobody keeps good numbers on how many miles
people are bicycling each year, we don't have a direct way to generate
that statistic.

There is a great story given by http://www.schooltrans.com/Downloads
which indicates that bicycling is more dangerous than adult driving,
but less than teen age driving. Is it too much of stretch to claim
bicycling adults would do better than driving adults?

I'd like a better analyis that this second source presents.

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Request for Question Clarification by tutuzdad-ga on 14 Mar 2004 20:35 PST

To make that asumption would be tantamount to comparing appples to
oranges. Bicycle accident stats are not recorded in the same manner as
motor vehicle stats. I can provide you with a number of statistics on
age related bicycle accidents from reliable sources and let you come
to your own conclusion if you'd accept that as an answer.

Regards;
tutuzdad-ga

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Clarification of Question by jimmorris-ga on 14 Mar 2004 21:15 PST

I've already searched for "bicycle fatalities per mile" and gotten
some pretty good answers, so I'd expect something better than being
provided with statistics. The one called "Is Cycling Dangerous" claims
there are twice as many bicycle crash injuries per mile as car crash
injuries. I'm looking for some deeper analysis.

Have you tried the argument with your wife that the fitness you attain
on the bike could add healthy years too your life. Also I took a
motorcycle safty foundation cource that made me a much safer biker.
Are there any rider cources where you live that you could take to
improve your safty? what is the traffic like on your route at the
times when you would have to ride?

If I told you that you had a 1 in 100 chance of dying and you thought,
"well, I can handle that risk" and you road for 5 years without
incident just to have me come back and say "Oops.. My mistake, it was
actually 1 in 10"  Would you suddenly stop riding?  Your personal
statistic is all that matters and no one can predict that.  Of course
it is more dangerous than driving, you are using your legs as bumpers
against 3000 pound metal vehicles and you can't dodge them.  All you
can do is minimize your risk.  Wear a helmet and reflective clothing. 
Don't jump redlights, don't ride tired.  Basic things, I know...  It
all comes down to your personal quality of life. If your life will be,
on the balance, better if you bike home from work then there is
nothing stopping you.  Just my .02 (and why I ride a motorcycle)