The people who have the most to lose by predicting the outcome
incorrectly are the bookmakers. When money is on the line, people tend
to do their background research very well. Polls may be biased for
many reasons, but the odds makers have no axe to grind.
That said, The BoDog online sportsbook and casino has set the odds for
Kerry at EVEN and Bush at -140, meaning that Bush is the favourite at
this point by a wide margin.
To win a dollar on Kerry, you have to bet a dollar. If he wins, you
get your dollar back, plus a dollar for a total of $2.00.
On the other hand, if you want to win a dollar on Bush, providing he
wins, you have to lay out a dollar and forty cents. You would get
$2.40 back in the event of a Bush victory.
It costs you more to win a dollar on Bush, making him the favourite.
The ratio between the two reflects the bookmaker's expectation of the
outcome.
There is not usually much variation between bookmakers, but the odds
may change as the campaign continues. Check out
http://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/non-sports-events.jsp for updates.
This was fun!
Alan Kali |