

Subject:
Proability And Statistics
Category: Business and Money Asked by: dwilliams49ga List Price: $10.00 
Posted:
04 May 2004 10:03 PDT
Expires: 03 Jun 2004 10:03 PDT Question ID: 340964 
If I have 2 deals that I am working on: The first I have a 50% chance to get and on the second I have a 33% chance. What is my probability of getting one yes between the two deals. ($10.00) 

Subject:
Re: Proability And Statistics
Answered By: lotdga on 04 May 2004 11:47 PDT 
Hi dwilliams49, There are four possible outcomes to the deals that you are working on. The outcomes and their probabilities are shown below: P(Yes to first deal and Yes to second deal) = 50% * 33% = 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6 P(Yes to first deal and No to second deal) = 50% * 67% = 1/2 * 2/3 = 1/3 P(No to first deal and Yes to second deal) = 50% * 33% = 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6 P(No to first deal and No to second deal) = 50% * 67% = 1/2 * 2/3 = 1/3 There are two possible outcomes where you will get one yes: P(Yes to first deal and No to second deal) P(No to first deal and Yes to second deal) Adding the two probabilities for these two outcomes together gives you the answer you are looking for: 1/3 + 1/6 = 1/2 = 50% Therefore, the probability of getting one yes between the two deals is 50%. A great way to solve this type of problem is to use tree diagrams which enable you to illustrate all possible outcomes and to calculate probabilities. Web sites showing examples of the use of tree diagrams in solving probability questions are listed below: GCSE Bitesize http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/maths/datahandlingih/probabilityirev2.shtml Easy Maths http://www.easymaths.com/Tree_Diagrams.htm Maths Help http://www.mathshelp.co.uk/Knowldge/Stat/Treeprob/Question.htm Learn.co.uk http://www.learn.co.uk/default.asp?WCI=Unit&WCU=282 Search Strategy "tree diagrams" + probability ://www.google.com/search?q=%22tree+diagrams%22+probability If you have any questions or require a clarification please let me know. Thanks, lotd 

Subject:
Re: Proability And Statistics
From: jugglrga on 13 May 2004 10:27 PDT 
Note that the above analysis (which is excellent) is for "PRECISELY one Yes". If the question relates to "AT LEAST one Yes", then you'd also have to add in the probability for the Yes/YES case. 
Subject:
Re: Proability And Statistics
From: tonyvuga on 30 Jul 2004 11:52 PDT 
Hi, Your chance is higher than 50%. If events A and B are not mutually exclusive (meaning they can occur at the same time) then the probability of one event or another happening is given by: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ? P(A AND B) = (.50+.33)  (.50*.33) = 66.5% chance of getting a yes 
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