Who is currently the most likely successor to Pope John Paul II?

I've gathered some interesting material on the subject. For reasons of
copyright, I am posting just brief excerpts here; for more in-depth
information, you may want to read these articles in their entirety.

"And who is the most papabile, to use the Italian word for a possible
Pope? The Archbishop of Milan, Dionigi Tettamanzi, is regarded by many
commentators as the most likely to succeed John Paul II. Given the
growth of the Catholic Church in Latin America, however, Oscar
Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras), Jorge Bergoglio (Argentina), and
Claudio Hummes (Brazil) cannot be ignored, and then there's Jaime
Ortega y Alamino, Archbishop of Havana, a figure of inspiration for
many. For those who believe it's time for Rome to make a bold move,
Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria is the logical choice."

Eamonn Fitzgerald's Rainy Day: Papabile
http://www.eamonn.com/archives/000799.html

"As of today, three men appear to be especially compelling papabili,
or candidates to be the next pope.

Claudio Hummes, Brazil, 69: A Franciscan, Hummes is well respected in
Rome and was invited to preach the 2002 Lenten Retreat for the papal
household...

Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Argentina, 66: A Jesuit, Bergoglio is a
soft-spoken intellectual, a man of genuine theological and
philosophical depth, who is a conservative on doctrinal and spiritual
matters...

Godfried Danneels, Belgium, 70: A former professor of liturgy at the
Catholic University of Louvain, Danneels has a high reputation as both
an intellectual and a pastor....

Other papabili include Cardinals Francis Arinze of Nigeria, Ivan Dias
of India, Walter Kasper of Germany, Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico,
Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, Christoph Schnborn of Austria
and Dionigi Tettamanzi of Italy."

The Boston Globe: Who will be the next pope?
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2003/12/14/who_will_be_the_next_pope/

"Four papabili on everyone's list:

Cardinal Francis Arinze, former archbishop of Onitsha, Nigeria. He
holds key posts in the Vatican and turns 71 on Nov. 1. A familiar face
to American Catholics, he has made frequent trips to the USA and has
been papabili for years...

Cardinal Oscar Andrés Rodriguez Maradiaga, 60, archbishop of
Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Bunson says he is "dynamic," has three
doctorates and is "one of the brightest theologians in the church."
He's popular, too...

Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, 69, archbishop of Milan. "A brilliant
prelate, he is one of the church's best moral theologians, who is also
a talented shepherd"...

Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, 58, archbishop of Vienna. He is the
general editor of the updated Catechism of the Catholic Church."

USA Today: 'Papabili': The handicappers' picks for pope
http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2003-10-20-pope-pick_x.htm

"While few Vatican officials dare speak of a successor to the ailing
John Paul II, several potential candidates have emerged... Here's a
look at some of the possible candidates, from the leading contenders
to the long shots:

Camillo Ruini...
Jan Schotte...
Lucas Moreira Neves...
Dionigi Tettamanzi...
Francis Arinze...
Pio Laghi... 
Christoph Schoenborn... 
Bernardin Gantin...
Joseph Ratzinger...
Carlo Maria Martini... 
Roger Etchegaray... 
Jean-Marie Lustiger"

Time: Who Will Be the Next Pope?
http://www.time.com/time/daily/special/papacy/succession.html

Several odds-makers consider Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi as the
leading candidate for the papacy.

"CWN reports English Catholics and Protestants alike have attacked as
"tasteless and immoral" those bookmakers who are offering odds on
which cardinal will succeed Pope John Paul II. The news agency says
the current favorite with the bookmakers Paddy Power and Betfair is
Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the archbishop of Milan.

Bettors are also offered odds of 2 to 1 on Archbishop Tettamanzi with
Paddy Power, which is based in Ireland and London, and 37 to 13 with
Betfair, an online company."
 
Catholic News: Bookies taking bets on the next Pope 
http://www.cathnews.com/news/401/142.php

"Every commentator on Vatican affairs is agreed on one thing - that
the man with the post access to insider secrets regarding the next
Pope and therefore in the best position to predict who it will be, is
the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power.

His odds are constantly updated online. Such is his importance that
the BBC ran a special feature on him in January this year."

European Institute of Protestant Studies: The Man to Ask is Paddy Power 
http://www.ianpaisley.org/article.asp?ArtKey=speculation

Here are some current odds from Paddy Power:

Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy) 2 - 1  
 
Claudio Hummes 5 - 2  
 
Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino (Cuba) 11 - 2  
 
Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 6 - 1  
 
Giovanni Battista Re (Italy) 8 - 1 
 
Paddy Power
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=show_type_by_main_market&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=45&id=520

Also worth reading:

Slate: Papal Chase
http://slate.msn.com/id/2089815/

Catholic Culture: Electing The Next Pope
http://www.catholicculture.org/docs/doc_view.cfm?recnum=2828 

TCR News: Six Good Servants 
http://www.tcrnews2.com/papabile.html

Pope Countdown: Successors
http://www.popecountdown.com/index.php?page=successor

Google search strategy:

Google Web Search: "the next pope"
://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=%22the+next+pope

Google Web Search: "papabili OR papabile"
://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=papabili+OR+papabile

I hope this is precisely the kind of info that you were looking for.
If anything is unclear, please request clarification; I'll gladly
offer further assistance before you rate my answer.

Best regards,
pinkfreud

---

Clarification of Answer by pinkfreud-ga on 26 May 2004 10:24 PDT

In case anyone is interested in my own opinion regarding who will be
the next Pope, I am torn between choosing Cardinal Tettamanzi or
Cardinal Arinze. If I were placing a bet (which I most definitely am
not), I would probably go with Cardinal Arinze.

~pinkfreud

According to PressEsc article about Betting on the New Pope:


Dionigi Tettamanzi is the bookmakers? favourite to become the new pope.

Hardly a day has passed since the death of the pope and people are
already placing their bets on who will become the new pope.

According to the online betting site Betfair Archbishop Tettamanzi,
the 71 year-old Italian is leading the pack at 2/1. He is the
Archbishop of Milan, the world?s most populous diocese.

 
Coming in at second place is Francis Arinze of Nigeria is 5/1. If
elected, the 72 year-old would become the first African pope since 496
AD.


With odds of 7/1, Oscar Andres Rodriguez Mariadaga of Honduras is
Latin Americas best hope at number three. The region is home to half
the world?s Catholics but they are not as rich as those in Europe so
not nearly so influential. This, coupled with his tender age of 62,
might work against him at the election.


 
Asia?s hopes rest with the rank outsider Ivan Dias. The odds, at 42/1,
are literally stacked against the 69 year old Archbishop of Mumbai.
India nearly had an Italian Prime Minister, so can we expect an Indian
to occupy the throne of Vatican?

http://unspun.mithuro.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=2

The above source linkified
<a href="http://unspun.mithuro.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=2">
http://unspun.mithuro.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=2</a>

For completeness :)
CARDINAL JOSEPH RATZINGER NAMED POPE, CHOOSING NAME OF BENEDICT XVI; 265TH PONTIFF

BTW: Commenters can't leave clickable links anymore, amigoro.

Please note that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger is mentioned in my answer,
albeit as a "long shot." I posted this answer nearly a year ago, and
the relative strengths and weaknesses of papal candidates have been
perceived differently with the passage of time.