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Q: Granular statistics on US divorce rate. ( Answered ,   1 Comment )
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 Subject: Granular statistics on US divorce rate. Category: Family and Home > Relationships Asked by: clay_shirky-ga List Price: \$30.00 Posted: 21 Jun 2004 07:42 PDT Expires: 21 Jul 2004 07:42 PDT Question ID: 363986
 ```We often hear that "50% of all marriages in the US end in divorce", a statement that makes it seem like a coin toss. That figure hides all the details about distribution, however. My question can be answered in one of two ways -- either a source of raw data on the demographics of marriage and divorce in the US I can slice and dice myself, or, if that doesn't exist, answers to the questions below: A: What is the breakdown of likelihood of a marriage ending in divorce broken down by age (either age of bride, or average age of couple?) B: What percentage of first marriages end in divorce, vs second or third? C: What percentage of divorces occur with childless couples vs. couples that have had at least one child? D: What percentage of men over 40, and of women over 40, have never been married?```
 ```A: What is the breakdown of likelihood of a marriage ending in divorce broken down by age (either age of bride, or average age of couple?) The Center for Disease Control provides a wealth of useful statistics. Probability of first marriage disruption by duration of marriage and wife?s age at marriage ?First marriages by wife?s age at marriage?If the wife was a teenager at first marriage, the marriage is much more likely to dissolve than if the wife was at least 20 years of age at marriage. The first marriages of brides under age 18 years are the most likely to dissolve at all marital durations, followed by the marriages of women 18?19 years of age at marriage. Marriages of women at least age 20 years at marriage are much less likely to dissolve (table 3 and figure 1). After 10 years of marriage, 48 percent of marriages of women under age 18 years at marriage have disrupted compared with 40 percent of marriages of women who were 18?19 years of age at marriage, 29 percent of marriages of women who were 20?24 years of age at marriage, and 24 percent of marriages of women at least 25 years of age at marriage.? See Table 3 on page 5 and Figure 1 on page 6 for detailed data Download publication here: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad323.pdf Data from divorcepeers.com: Age at marriage for those who divorce in the United States -------------------------------------------------- Age Women Men -------------------------------------------------- Under 20 years old 27.6% 11.7% 20 to 24 years old 36.6% 38.8% 25 to 29 years old 16.4% 22.3% 30 to 34 years old 8.5% 11.6% 35 to 39 years old 5.1% 6.5% -------------------------------------------------- http://www.divorcepeers.com/statistics.htm B: What percentage of first marriages end in divorce, vs second or third? First Marriage Dissolution, Divorce, and Remarriage: United States Matthew D. Bramlett, Ph.D., and William D. Mosher, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics This report presents national estimates of the duration of first and second marriages for women 15?44 years of age in 1995. National estimates of the probability of divorce given separation and of the probability of remarriage given divorce are also presented. See Table 7 Page 9 Probability of second marriage by duration of first divorce and woman?s age at divorce: United States, See Table 9. Page 11 Probability of second marriage disruption by duration of marriage and wife?s age at remarriage: United States, Second marriage ?After 10 years of remarriage, 47 percent of remarriages of women under age 25 years at remarriage have dissolved, compared with only 34 percent of remarriages to women at least age 25 years at remarriage (table 9 and figure 7). For the first 7 years of remarriage, the differences are in the same direction, but they are not statistically significant.? (..) ?Higher age at first marriage is associated with longer marital durations. Age at separation is not significantly related to the probability that a separation will result in divorce. Women at least age 25 years at the time of divorce are less likely to remarry than women under age 25 years at divorce. Women younger than 25 years old at remarriage are more likely to experience a second marital disruption than are women over age 25 years at remarriage, although this difference only becomes statistically significant at later durations of a second marriage.? Download publication here: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad323.pdf New Report Sheds Light on Trends and Patterns in Marriage, Divorce, and Cohabitation July 24, 2002 Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the United States. Series Report 23, Number 22. 103pp. ?The report, prepared by CDC?s National Center for Health Statistics, focuses not only on individual factors but also community conditions associated with long-term marriages as well as divorce and separation.? http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/02news/div_mar_cohab.htm Download complete report (103 pages) here: Bramlett MD and Mosher WD. Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the United States. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 23(22). 2002. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_23/sr23_022.pdf ?Second marriages are even less likely to survive than a first marriage. The probability of separation or divorce for a second marriage after 10 years 30 years ago was 29%, but in 1995 it had risen to 39%.? http://www.skfriends.com/do-43-percent-of-marriages-divorce.htm From the Cape Gazette published November 2002: CDC releases report on marriage, divorce, cohabitation. ?However, there was also a strong probability that second marriages will end in separation or divorce: 23 percent after five years and 39 percent after 10 years.? http://www.capegazette.com/storiesmorgue/health/aaa2002health/cdcreport110102.html June 11, 2003 ?Fifty percent of first marriages, 67 percent of second and 74 percent of third marriages end in divorce, according to Jennifer Baker of the Forest Institute of Professional Psychology in Springfield, Missouri.? http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:7kPsUi9Q2tUJ:www.christchurchepiscopal.com/Sermon_Archive/Newsleader/2003/Religion_Ethics_11june03.pdf+%2267+percent+of+second+and+74+percent+of+third+marriages+end+in+divorce+%22++Jennifer+Baker&hl=es ?Jennifer Baker is a licensed marriage and family therapist as well as Director of the Post-Graduate Program in Marriage and Family Therapy at Forest Institute of Professional Psychology in Springfield, Missouri. She is also a doctoral candidate in clinical psychology E-mail: pajlbaker@aol.com? http://old.dcs.lcms.org/family/speakerstuff/displaySpeakerInfo.asp?speakerid=296 41 percent of first marriages end in divorce. 60 percent of second marriages end in divorce. 73 percent of third marriages end in divorce. http://enrichmentjournal.ag.org/200003/030_too_large.cfm Percentage of first marriages that end in divorce in 1997: 50% Percentage of remarriages that end in divorce in 1997: 60% http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsUS.shtml ?Fifty percent of marriages end in divorce. Sixty-seven percent of all second marriages end in divorce.? http://www.mediate.com/articles/psych.cfm ?In fact second and third marriages are more likely than first marriages to end in divorce. The statistics say the ?54% of American women and 61% of American men who wed a second time eventually go through divorce again? (p. 276). In addition, about 40% of third marriages fail.? Bellarmine College of Liberal Arts http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/faculty/mmills_fp/Sexdiffs/spr01/panel6.htm ?95 percent of all divorced people eventually remarry . . . 76 per cent of second marriages fail within five years . . . .87 per cent of third marriages fail and 93 per cent of fourth marriages end in divorce within five years.? http://www.allaboutfamilies.org/00aaf14.html C: What percentage of divorces occur with childless couples vs.couples that have had at least one child? ?Sociologists believe that childlessness is also a common cause of divorce. The absence of children leads to loneliness and weariness and even in the United States, at least 66 per cent of all divorced couples are childless.? http://www.goacom.com/goatoday/2001/oct/perspective.html ?couples with children have a slightly lower rate of divorce than childless couples.? http://health.discovery.com/centers/loverelationships/articles/marriage_myths.html D: What percentage of men over 40, and of women over 40, have never been married? The following publication provides the data you require regarding percentages of men and women who have never been married by age group. Internet Table 1. Marital History for People 15 Years Old and Over by Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity: Source: U.S. Census Bureau Internet Release date: February 8, 2002 Download publication here: http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/marital-hist/p70-80/tab01.pdf Other data that might interest you: Percentage of people who have ever been married by the age of 25: Males: 32% Females: 50% Percentage of people who have ever been married by the age of 35: Males: 77% Females: 84% Percentage of people who have ever been married by the age of 45: Males: 87% Females: 90% Percentage of people who have ever been married by the age of 55: Both males and females: 95% http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsUS.shtml ==================== Additional Resources ==================== Marriage and Divorce The U.S. Census Bureau does not collect the number of marriages and divorces that take place in a given year. These data may be obtained from the NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS (NCHS). Their phone number is: 301-458-4636. The U.S. Census Bureau does provide the current marital status of persons, by age, sex, and race and the estimated median age at first marriage for men and women at the U.S. level http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/marr-div.html Number, Timing and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 1996 Report [PDF 170k] http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf Detail Table - Marital History for People 15 Years Old and Over by Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity: Fall 1996 Excel (48k) http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/marital-hist/p70-80/tab01.xls PDF (224k) http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/marital-hist/p70-80/tab01.pdf Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the 1990?s (P23-180) http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/marr-div/p23-180.html Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces in the United States: June 1975 (P20-297) http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/marr-div/p20-297.html Divorce Statistics Collection http://www.divorcereform.org/stats.html Search criteria: Search Criteria: U.S. divorce statistics % of third marriages end in Divorce "second marriages end in divorce" childless divorce statistics over 40 years old and never married I hope you find this information useful! Best regards, Bobbie7``` Clarification of Answer by bobbie7-ga on 21 Jun 2004 10:24 PDT ```Correlations of Divorce rates with other factors (e.g. age, religion, occupation, region, race) http://www.divorcereform.org/cor.html```
 ```Thank you very much for the nice rating and tip! --Bobbie7```