I want to find models, based on Excel spreadsheets, of how renewable
sources of electricity generation might grow over the next 20-50
years, and the costs involved. Ideally I would like models I could
download, but otherwise papers describing the models, how they were
set up, the asumptions made and the conclusions taken from them.
I am thinking of a spreadsheet that starts with the current capacity,
price per kW of electricity produced, capital cost per kW installed,
efficiency, discount rate, etc. of sources like PV, wind, hydro - and
then grows them for each subsequent year, so that you could take a
stab at saying when
wind, for instance, might be providing 20% of total energy demand.
I don't mind if the models deal with the whole planet, or one country,
or whether they deal with all renewable sources or just some of them -
it is an idea of how the models work that I want. |
Request for Question Clarification by
hedgie-ga
on
21 Jul 2004 13:12 PDT
Do you insist on Excel spreadsheet, or you are saying
you want to be quantitative?
What about models in c or tcl - with some instructions perhaps
how to use it?
The model really cannot be predicitive, as explained
at least partly, in the following answer
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=280225
There are things which we cannot predict, such as Solar constant,
which will influence the near future. Issues like abiotic oil, which
will affect the price...
But there is lot of interesting numbers which can be gathered,
compared, reduced to common units....
Would it be OK to do it all in SI units?
It is an important issue and one I find interesting.
Do you want some $20 worth of data?
hedgie
|
Clarification of Question by
gervased-ga
on
22 Jul 2004 00:26 PDT
Hi Hedgie-ga,
To clarify my question: I want Excel because I know how to use it, and
I could then play around with the models, look at the formulas used,
and use them as a basis of building one of my own. Models on other
programs would give me ideas of the factors involved and how they
interact but are a second best option.
SI units are swell.
I don't know what $20 of data looks like! Do what you think is right.
thanks, G
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Request for Question Clarification by
hedgie-ga
on
23 Jul 2004 07:16 PDT
Gervased,
I understand that you do not want to do programming
(in some low level language, like c), but how would you feel about
a simulation package? Something like
http://scilabsoft.inria.fr/
Please take a look at some simple simulation, like pendulum:
http://scilabsoft.inria.fr/doc/demos_html/node179.html
Something simple, like 'replacement of resources' may fit into $20
and (I mean after climbing a steep learning curve) and it can be much more
fun, and accomplish more, then a spread sheet.
It depends on how much energy (and other resources) you want to give
to your model, so I need one more clarification:
Please take a peel at scilab, and let me know how it feels.
hedgie
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