Hello shikibobo-ga,
In Los Angeles County, aerospace, international trade, tourism and
technology are experiencing growth. Local governments, motion
picture/TV production, and manufacturing are facing significant
challenges.
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Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation
2004-2005 Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook
For California & the Los Angeles Five-County Area
Including the National & International Setting
February 2004
http://laedc.info/pdf/LAEF-2004-02.pdf
?V. OUTLOOK FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY
The year 2003 started with drama (the SARS epidemic), had an
architectural milestone (the opening of Disney Hall) and ended with
more drama (an unexpectedly long supermarket strike), but there was
economic progress in the County on several fronts. For 2004, the
overall economic situation will be improving, but per usual, Los
Angeles County will see some more drama.
Positive forces
- Classic aerospace is once again in a growth mode, with lots of
Department of Defense and other Federal agency work coming in to local
contractors. A tantalizing item is the potential for a re-invigorated
U.S. space program.
- International trade flows will continue to grow, although goods
movement could generate controversy over how to relieve congestion.
- Tourism should have a good year, with new theme park rides (the
"Mummy" at Universal Studios Hollywood) and the "Pow Wow" event in Los
Angeles in April.
- Technology will be moving more solidly into a recovery mode.
- New homebuilding will ease off from 2003's levels, but still will
turn in a sturdy performance.
- There will continue to be a surprising demand for new industrial
space in the County.
- Additional economic support will continue to come from a variety of
major projects, with a slant toward hospitals and schools.
Negative forces
- Local governments will be under extreme financial duress due to
state budget problems, with service cuts and fee increases possible.
- The motion picture/TV production industry must still contend with
run-away production and piracy, while 2004 will see major contract
negotiations between the studios and the various unions.
- The manufacturing sector (still very important) will continue to
cope with cost pressures and import competition.
- Being sensitive to labor issues after 2003, a contract in the hotel
industry is due for renegotiation during the year.
- Another SARS scare (still a risk) would also have an impact on the
County's large international trade industry.?
(Page 30)
Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation
2004-2005 Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook
For California & the Los Angeles Five-County Area
Including the National & International Setting
Mid-Year Update
July 2004
http://laedc.info/pdf/LAEF-2004-07.pdf
?V. OUTLOOK FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY
The year 2004 started slowly for the County, but the situation
brightened as the year progressed.
Positive forces
- The high-wage, high-multiplier aerospace industry will be adding
jobs year-over year during the second half of 2004.
- There is that unexpected strength in international trade.
- Tourism is turning in a hearty performance, helped along by a
positive response from the "Pow Wow" marketing event hosted by the
city of Los Angeles early in 2004.
- Homebuilding is holding at high levels.
- Demand for industrial space remains strong.
- There is ongoing support from a variety of major projects.
- The County's population moved over the 10 million mark in 2003, and
by January 1, 2005 it should have 10,237,000 residents. This is good
news for retailers and consumer service providers, but a headache for
local government officials who will worry about providing social
services.
Negative forces
- Local government finance remains under pressure.
- The environment for manufacturing (the County is the nation's
largest metro area for this activity) remains shaky, although there
are some hopeful signs that people are thinking more strategically
about it.
- Housing costs are high.
- There are a variety of ongoing labor issues in the critical
entertainment industry.
- Looking forward to 2005, the Los Angeles Air Force base could be at
risk in the next Base Re- Alignment and Closure (BRAC) round.?
(Page 32)
UCLA Anderson Forecast Data Release
Seasonally Adjusted Regional Job Data For California
July 2004
http://uclaforecast.com/uploads/forecasts/2004/Regional_Data/04_08_13release.asp
?Los Angeles County saw a very solid increase of 7,500 jobs in July,
more than offsetting June?s weak performance. The region has now added
25,600 jobs since January, on pace to add over 1% to the payroll
workforce this year. Gains were led by Professional Services, Trade
and Transport and Leisure and Hospitality jobs. Information jobs,
including the important Motion Picture industry, continue to shrink,
and the sector is down 2% from the beginning of the year.
Manufacturing also remains down since the beginning of the year, but
July did see a gain of 1,200 jobs for this important sector. Los
Angeles figures also showed a sharp drop in the labor force, even as
household employment rose. This appears to be a correction in the
data, putting year-to-date gains in both on level basis, lowering the
unemployment rate back to 6.3%.?
UCLA Anderson Forecast Reveals California Growth Continues Despite
Looming State Budget Issues
September 8, 2004
UCLA Anderson Forecast
http://uclaforecast.com/contents/archive/media_9_04_1.asp
?Job quality is the issue in Los Angeles as the creation of ?informal?
jobs, which contribute less to the overall economy than do other jobs
outpaces more traditional employment. ?
---
?In Los Angeles, Senior Economist Christopher Thornberg focuses on job
creation and the quality of jobs being created in Los Angeles County.
In a report titled, ?The Los Angeles Report: Good Jobs, Bad Jobs,?
Thornberg says that Los Angeles has added 24,000 jobs since the start
of the year. These jobs are mostly in retail trade, finance and
insurance, professional and technical services, administrative
support, transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality
industries. Key sectors such as manufacturing, information and
government have performed poorly, while construction and healthcare
are flat.?
State of California September 13, 2004
EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (MSA)
(LOS ANGELES COUNTY)
http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/la$prn.pdf
?Total nonfarm wage and salary employment dropped by 4,400 jobs
between July and August 2004 to reach 3,968,900 jobs. August?s
month-over decline continues to be driven primarily by reductions in
education. Government posted the largest month-over cutback of 11,300
jobs, most of which (11,200) were from local government education.
Educational and health services? drop of 1,700 jobs made it the second
largest nonfarm contraction; growth in health care and social
assistance (up 200 jobs), was offset by educational services? loss of
1,900 jobs. Three other industries experienced over-the-month
employment drops: other services (down 1,600 jobs); manufacturing
(down 1,000 jobs); and financial activities (down 400 jobs). The
largest month-over growth industry was information (up 6,500 jobs).
Within information, slight declines in other sectors slightly offset
the growth of 6,900 jobs in motion pictures and sound recording. Four
additional industries expanded payrolls between July and August 2004:
construction (up 1,600 jobs); professional and business services (up
1,300 jobs); trade, transportation and utilities (up 1,300 jobs); and
leisure and hospitality (up 900 jobs). Natural resources and mining
was constant at 3,700 jobs.
---
Between August 2003 and August 2004, total nonfarm employment expanded
by 9,100 jobs, or 0.2 percent. Leisure and hospitality reported the
largest nonfarm job increase (up 14,600 jobs). Within leisure and
hospitality, accommodation and food service posted the largest growth
(up 11,300 jobs). Professional and business services showed the second
largest yearly expansion, adding 9,700 jobs, mostly in employment
services (up 7,700 jobs). Trade, transportation, and utilities
bolstered their payrolls by 7,700 jobs. The other industries to
augment their employment were: educational and health services (up
3,500 jobs); financial activities (up 2,100 jobs); and construction
(up 400 jobs). Five industries contracted over the year. Government
lost 11,600 jobs, the majority in local government education (down
9,100 jobs). Manufacturing followed closely, losing 10,900 jobs,
divided among durable goods manufacturing (down 4,900 jobs) and
nondurable goods manufacturing (down 6,000 jobs). The remaining
declining industries are: information (down 5,300 jobs); other
services (down 1,000 jobs); and natural resources and mining (down 100
jobs).?
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Other References:
ECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC AND FINANCIAL INFORMATION
CITY OF LOS ANGELES
Dated as of November 18, 2003
http://www.lacity.org/cao/econdemo031118.pdf
Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation
LA County Profile
http://www.laedc.org/data/about_LA_county/index.shtml
Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation
LA County's 16 top industries (ranked by employment)
http://www.laedc.org/data/about_la_county/14industry.shtml
California Employment Development Department
Labor Market Information
Los Angeles County, California
http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/htmlfile/county/losangel.htm
California Employment Development Department
Labor Market Information
Los Angeles County - Occupations With Greatest Growth, 2001-2008
Greatest Job Growth or Fastest Job Growth (Percent Change)
http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/FILE/OCCPROJ/laF&G.htm
California Employment Development Department
Labor Market Information
Los Angeles County - Occupational Openings and Declines, 2001-2008
Occupations with the Most Job Openings and Projected Job Loss
http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/FILE/OCCPROJ/laO&D.htm
California Employment Development Department
Labor Market Information
Los Angeles County - Occupational Employment Projections , 2001-2008
http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/FILE/OCCPROJ/laTB6.htm
California Employment Development Department
Labor Market Information
Industry Employment Projections (1)
Los Angeles County
2001-2008
http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/indproj/latb2.htm
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I hope this information meets your needs. By the way, I found this
question particularly interesting since I live in Los Angeles.
Googlenut
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