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Selected Interest Rates - Federal Stats
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FEDERAL FUNDS
=============
THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE IS THE COST OF BORROWING IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE
FUNDS, PRIMARILY FOR ONE DAY. THE EFFECTIVE RATE IS A WEIGHTED AVERAGE
OF THE REPORTED RATES AT WHICH DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF THE DAY'S TRADING
THROUGH NEW YORK BROKERS OCCURS.
1999 4.97
2000 6.24
2001 3.88
2002 1.67
2003 1.13
01/2004 1.00
02/2004 1.01
03/2004 1.00
04/2004 1.00
05/2004 1.00
06/2004 1.03
07/2004 1.26
08/2004 1.43
Annual
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/fedfund.txt
2004 Monthly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/m/fedfund.txt
Daily
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/d/fedfund.txt
Weekly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/ww/fedfund.txt
Bi-Weekly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/bwaw/fedfund.txt
SECONDARY CDs (6 MONTH)
=======================
THE RATE ON CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT, CDS, IS A SIMPLE AVERAGE OF
DEALER RATES ON NEGOTIABLE CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT NATIONALLY TRADED
IN THE SECONDARY MARKET. RATES ARE DETERMINED FOR EACH BUSINESS DAY.
1999 5.46
2000 6.59
2001 3.66
2002 1.81
2003 1.17
01/2004 1.12
02/2004 1.11
03/2004 1.09
04/2004 1.21
05/2004 1.46
06/2004 1.76
07/2004 1.85
08/2004 1.89
Annual
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/cd6m.txt
2004 Monthly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/m/cd6m.txt
Weekly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/wf/cd6m.txt
PRIME BANK LOAN
===============
THE PRIME RATE IS A 7-DAY RATE WITH WEEKENDS AND HOLIDAYS CONTAINING
THE PRIOR BUSINESS DAY'S VALUE.
1999 8.00
2000 9.23
2001 6.91
2002 4.67
2003 4.12
01/2004 4.00
02/2004 4.00
03/2004 4.00
04/2004 4.00
05/2004 4.00
06/2004 4.00
07/2004 4.25
08/2004 4.42
Annual
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/prime.txt
2004 Monthly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/m/prime.txt
Weekly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/ww/prime.txt
Daily
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/d/prime.txt
DISCOUNT RATE
=============
THE DISCOUNT RATE REFERS TO THE SIMPLE INTEREST RATE AT WHICH
DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS BORROW FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW
YORK.
1999 4.62
2000 5.73
2001 3.40
2002 1.17
2003 2.00
01/2004 2.00
02/2004 2.00
03/2004 2.00
04/2004 2.00
05/2004 2.00
06/2004 2.01
07/2004 2.25
08/2004 2.43
Annual
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/dwb.txt
Monthly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/m/dwb.txt
Weekly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/ww/dwb.txt
Daily
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/d/dwb.txt
Additional Rates Available:
Commercial Paper (Financial and Non-Financial 1, 2, 3, Month)
Finance Paper Placed Directly (1 and 6 Month)
Bankers Acceptances (3 and 6 Month)
Eurodollar Deposits (1,3,6 Month)
U.S. Treasuries (1 Month to 30 Year, Composite)
Corporate Bonds
State & Local Bonds
Historic Economic Rates
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm
Mortgage Interest Rates
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30-year conventional mortgages - Fixed-rate
Source: FEDERAL HOME MORTGAGE CORPORATION
1999 7.43
2000 8.06
2001 6.97
2002 6.54
2003 5.82
01/2004 5.74
02/2004 5.64
03/2004 5.45
04/2004 5.83
05/2004 6.27
06/2004 6.29
07/2004 6.06
08/2004 5.87
Annual
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/cm.txt
2004 Monthly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/m/cm.txt
Weekly
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/wf/cm.txt
Additional Mortgage Statistics (15 Year Fixed, 1 Year Adjustable Rate)
National Monthly Averages - "The statistical mortgage rate histories
listed here are derived from HSH's [HSH Associates, Financial
Publishers] database of 2,000 to 3,000 lenders."
1999: http://www.hsh.com/natmo99.html
2000: http://www.hsh.com/natmo2000.html
2001: http://www.hsh.com/natmo2001.html
2002: http://www.hsh.com/natmo2002.html
2003: http://www.hsh.com/natmo2003.html
2004: http://www.hsh.com/natmo2004.html
http://www.hsh.com/mtghst.html
Housing Affordability Index
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The National Association of Realtors publishes the Housing
Affordability Index quarterly. I haven't located a single, neatly
organized version of the index, but I've pulled together quarterly
data from a variety of sources, quoted below:
US Affordability Index
----------------------
Composite Fixed ARM
1999 139.1 136.3 150.4
2000 131.5 129.9 143.8
2001
Jan 143.1 142.9 155.4
Feb 144.4 145.0 151.9
Mar 141.0 141.6 149.6
Apr 142.1 142.5 152.0
May 139.8 140.0 150.1
Jun 133.2 133.1 144.2
Housing Affordability Index: 1970-Present
http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/ushmc/summer2001/histdat11.htm
HAI Composite
2001 135.7
2002 135.0
2003 140.5
Q II 143.8
Q III 136.6
Q IV 138.7
2004
Q I 144.1
Q II (p) 133.6
National Association of Realtors
Quarterly Housing Affordability Index
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/Rel04Q2G.pdf/$FILE/Rel04Q2G.pdf
HAI Individual Quarters 1999:
-----------------------------
"NAR's composite Housing Affordability Index was 134.5 during the
second quarter, down 5.7 percentage points from 140.2 reported in the
first quarter. The second quarter index is 0.1 points higher than the
same period last year when it stood at 134.4...
The index shows half the nation's households had at least 134.5
percent of the income needed to purchase a home at the second quarter
median existing- home price, which was $133,500. Under these
conditions, a family earning the U.S. median income of $46,492 could
afford a home costing $179,600. This index measures affordability
factors for all home buyers making a 20 percent downpayment, with an
index of 100 defined as the point where a median-income family has the
exact amount of income needed to purchase a median-priced existing
home."
Housing Affordability Index Slips in Second Quarter
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/1999/0803a.html
"NAR?s composite Housing Affordability Index was charted at a
still-healthy 127.4 mark during the third quarter of 1999. The index
was down 7.1 percentage points from the second quarter of 1999, and
was 7.5 percentage points lower than its level from one year earlier."
Housing Affordability Still Healthy Despite Third Quarter Decline
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/1999/1101f.html
"NAR?s composite Housing Affordability Index was 130.1 during the
fourth quarter, up 2.6 percentage points from 127.5 reported in the
third quarter. The fourth quarter index is 10.6 points below the same
period a year earlier when it stood at 140.7."
1999 Housing Affordability Index Rise
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/2000/0201f.html
HAI Individual Quarters 2000:
-----------------------------
"NAR?s composite Housing Affordability Index was 131.8 during the
first quarter, down 1.0 percentage points from 134.8 reported in the
fourth quarter of 1999. The first quarter index is 13.8 points below
the same period a year earlier when it stood at 145.6."
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/2000/0501g.html
"NAR?s composite Housing Affordability Index was 126.5 during the
second quarter, down 4.6 percentage points from 131.1 reported in the
first quarter; it was 12.7 points below the same period a year earlier
when it stood at 139.2."
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/2000/0801a.html
"NAR?s composite Housing Affordability Index was 132.9 during the
fourth quarter, up 8.2 percentage points from 124.7 reported in the
third quarter; it was 1.8 points below the same period a year earlier
when it stood at 134.7."
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/2001/0201f.html
HAI Individual Quarters 2001:
-----------------------------
"NAR's composite Housing Affordability Index was 137.1 during the
third quarter, down 1.3 percentage points from 138.4 reported in the
second quarter. However, the index remained 12.1 points higher than
the same period a year earlier when it stood at 125.0."
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/2001/1108a.html
"NAR's composite Housing Affordability Index was 132.9 during the
fourth quarter, up 8.2 percentage points from 124.7 reported in the
third quarter; it was 1.8 points below the same period a year earlier
when it stood at 134.7."
http://www.mortgagebankers.org//briefs/02/0404c.html
HAI Individual Quarters 2002:
-----------------------------
"NAR's composite Housing Affordability Index was 132.6 during the
second quarter, down 4.6 percentage points from 137.2 reported in the
first quarter; it was 2.3 points lower than the same period a year
earlier when it stood at 134.9."
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/briefs/02/0801b.html
Same % Change % Change
Quarter From From
Latest Previous Previous Previous Last
Quarter Quarter Year Quarter Year
COMPOSITE 140.7 135.9 141.0 + 4 ?
FIXED-RATE 139.9 134.0 140.8 + 4 ? 1
ADJUSTABLE- RATE 153.8 151.2 151.5 + 2 + 2 "
Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
US Housing Market Condition - 4th Quarter 2002
http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/ushmc/winter02/nd_hm.html
Wealth Effect
---------------------------------------------------------------------
There's no single index that measures Wealth Effect. I've included on
Consumer Spending and DJ Composite averages. If there's a particular
index you have in mind, or, for instance, historical performance data
on the Wealth Effect portfolio, I'll be happy to seek out available
mentions.
wealth effect - An increase in consumer spending based on the
perceived wealth created by the escalating value of stock market
portfolios."
Wealth Effect
http://www.wordspy.com/words/wealtheffect.asp
Consumer Spending - 2004
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2004/pi0704_fax.pdf
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2000-2002
http://www.bls.gov/cex/home.htm#tables
"The pace of U.S. consumer spending has more than doubled in the past
year, rising from two percent to over four percent, according to
Deloitte Research's Leading Index of Consumer Spending. Upward
revisions of housing prices since October 2003 are the driving force
of the recent acceleration in the index."
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0,2297,cid%3D54349&pre%3DY&lid%3D1,00.html
Consumer Confidence Index (2004)
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm
Consumer Price Index
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Chained Consumer Price Index 2000-2004
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t07.htm
Dow Jones Composite Results | Excel File
Monthly January, 1999 - August, 2004
http://68.15.21.151/uploads/researchers/DowJones.zip
Source: http://averages.dowjones.com/jsp/uiHistoricalIndexRep.jsp
The Anxious Index
http://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/anxind.html
Housing Starts
---------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL HOUSING STARTS (1978-2003)
Year Single-Family Multifamily Total
2003 1,499,000 348,700 1,847,700
2002 1,358,900 346,900 1,705,800
2001 1,273,300 329,400 1,602,700
2000 1,230,900 337,800 1,568,700
1999 1,302,500 338,700 1,641,200
National Association of Homebuilders | Housing Starts
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=554
2004 Monthly Housing Starts
Aug (p) 2,000
Jul (r) 1,988
Jun (r) 1,817
May 1,979
April 1,963
Mar 2,000
Feb 1,895
Jan 1,934
National Economic Forecasts and Projections
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Housing and Interest Rate Forecast 2002-2006
Interest Rates (Freddie Mac Commitment)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fixed-rate 6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.7% 7.1%
ARMs 4.6% 3.8% 4.0% 5.5% 6.3%
Prime Rate 4.7% 4.1% 4.3% 6.0% 7.2%
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=138&genericContentID=631
Financial Forecasts Center (6 Month Forecasts)
----------------------------------------------
Dow Jones: http://www.forecasts.org/djcomp.htm
NASDEQ: http://www.forecasts.org/nasd.htm
S&P 500: http://www.forecasts.org/stpoor.htm
Prime Rate: http://www.forecasts.org/prime.htm
Discount Rate: http://www.forecasts.org/disc.htm
Fed Funds Rate: http://www.forecasts.org/ffund.htm
30 Year Mortgage: http://www.forecasts.org/fha.htm
Consumer Price Index: http://www.forecasts.org/cpi.htm
Housing Starts: http://www.forecasts.org/house.htm
CPI/Inflation
http://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/cpi-inflation.htm
More 6 Month Forecasts from Financial Forecasts Center
http://www.forecasts.org/disc.htm
Livingston Survey - Forecasters Predict Economic Growth and Falling
Unemployment Through Mid- 2005
http://www.phil.frb.org/files/liv/NewFilesJun04/livjun04.pdf
Survey of Professional Forecasters | Philadelphia Fed | Q3 2004
http://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/survq304.htm
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2004
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2004/02/index.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics | US Economy to 2012
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art2full.pdf
The Next Decade for Housing and Mortgage Finance
http://www.homeownershipalliance.com/documents/americas_home_forecast_003.pdf
National Association of Homebuilders Eye on the Economy
http://www.nahbmonday.com/eyeonecon/issues/2004-09-22.html
Mortgage Bankers Association Long-Term Economic Forecast (.pdf)
http://www.mbaa.org/marketdata/forecasts/ECJULY2004.pdf
Mortgage Bankers Association Long-Term Mortgage Finance Forecast
http://www.mbaa.org/marketdata/forecasts/FFJULY2004.pdf
Congressional Budget Office - Economic Forecast 2005-2014
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=4985&sequence=10
"The National Forecast
In a report titled, "U.S. Economy: Prelude to a Recession," UCLA
Anderson Forecast Senior Economist Michael Bazdarich breaks with a
current Wall Street consensus that believes the national economy is
early in a growth period that will only get stronger, and instead
asserts that the underlying data reveal a recovery that may be close
to the end. "In chronological terms, the expansion is still young,"
Bazdarich said, "and that supposed youth is what drives many to think
that strong growth will resume. However, in most relevant respects,
this expansion is very old, with the consumer, housing and even
investment sectors displaying all the vulnerabilities they would
normally have only after a long expansion."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040908/law040_1.html
Merrill Lynch Interest Rate Outlook
http://askmerrill.ml.com/res_article/1,2271,18972,00.html
US Forecast Memo | 2004:3--2008
http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/memo/fm.htm
Fannie Mae - Economic, Housing & Mortgage Outlook to 2010 (Powerpoint)
http://www.nahb.org/fileUpload_details.aspx?contentID=23251
Additional PowerPoint Presentations from the SPRING 2004 CONSTRUCTION
FORECAST CONFERENCE REPORTS
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=138&genericContentID=23241
ComAmerica Economic Review and Forecast (2004-2008)
http://www.comerica.com/cma/cda/main/0,00,1_A_1183,00.html
Homeownership Affordability in Urban America: Past and Future
http://www.fanniemaefoundation.org/programs/pdf/042904_housing_affordability.pdf
I hope you find this information to be exactly what you're seeking. If
you have any questions about sources or data, please let me know.
Best regards,
---larre
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