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Subject:
How a poll of <1000 can be a credible sample
Category: Science > Math Asked by: cwd-ga List Price: $5.00 |
Posted:
12 Oct 2004 09:38 PDT
Expires: 20 Oct 2004 13:42 PDT Question ID: 413698 |
There have been many polls of who's in the lead in the presidential race, but I was surprised that a national poll of less than 800 was used to determine who's in the lead. Can someone point me to critiques or support of the accuracy of polling with such a small sample? |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: How a poll of <1000 can be a credible sample
From: padmapani-ga on 12 Oct 2004 11:41 PDT |
Firstly the key point here is that the sample taken is "representative".Just like a doctor who takes a sample of blood ( doesnt pump out the whole bloods out of you) for diagnosis. The margin of error due to sampling decreases as sample size increases, to a point. For most purposes, samples of between 1,000 and 2,000 respondents have a sufficiently small margin of error that larger samples are not cost-effective. If there was even a sub grouping required within these (say you wanted to find out what percent of the people who say they vote for democrats also are from a particular minority) then you would definitely need a larger sample size. |
Subject:
Re: How a poll of <1000 can be a credible sample
From: hfshaw-ga on 12 Oct 2004 13:02 PDT |
In general, the margin of error in a poll is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. A poll of 10 people would have a standard error of 1/sqrt(10) =~ 31.6%. A poll of 100 people would have an error of 1/sqrt(100) =~ 10%, a poll of 1000 people would have an error of 1/sqrt(1000) =~ 3.16%, and a poll of 10,000 people would have an error of 1/sqrt(10,000) =~ 1%. As you can see, one quickly reaches a point of diminishing returns in terms of reducing the standard error once the sample size reaches several hundred people (assuming the people chosen are a truely random sampling). See http://www.publicagenda.org/polling/polling_error.cfm http://www.studyworksonline.com/cda/content/article/0,,EXP545_NAV2-76_SAR542,00.shtml http://whyfiles.org/009poll/math_primer.html |
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