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Subject:
Economics
Category: Business and Money > Economics Asked by: vonsedric-ga List Price: $10.00 |
Posted:
13 Oct 2004 06:46 PDT
Expires: 01 Nov 2004 12:11 PST Question ID: 414175 |
First, with an economy this close to full employment, does it seem necessary to provide any economic stimulus with government economic policy? And, if policy is to be used, should tax changes or government spending changes be used?? |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Economics
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 13 Oct 2004 10:13 PDT |
The natural rate of unemployment is thought to be about 4% in the US now, so todays' 5.4% unemployment rate (although lower than the peak of 6.3% in 2003) isn't very close to full employment. This link shows unemployment rates for recent years (notice the 4% near the end of 2000 showing that this rate is obtainable): http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE/12/10yrs 2 things in recent years that have been done to stimulate the economy are 1) Tax Breaks: The tax breaks that Bush implemented have helped spur the economy, but not at the desired rate. It has been a few years now and unemployment is still 5.4%. Further, this is partly to blame for the huge deficit during the last few years which will put a strain on the economy in future years. 2) Lower Interest Rates: The Fed greatly reduced interest rates over time to fight the recession. This has increased consumer spending (especially with large purchases such as homes and cars) and has also increased business spending which has helped create jobs. Now the Fed is slowly increasing interest rates because they believe the economy is recovering at a reasonable rate and we're not in danger of another recession. I am a fan of both of those policies (especially the 2nd). The first is good if the budget can be handled reasonably, but unfortionately our lawmakers are and have for decades been terrible at managing government spending. |
Subject:
Re: Economics
From: nelson-ga on 13 Oct 2004 14:16 PDT |
Close to full employment. You're kidding, right? Please do not listen to any Republicans. |
Subject:
Re: Economics
From: eschat-ga on 14 Oct 2004 21:32 PDT |
vonsedric, two comments about the other posts, then my comments (i'm a windbag...) 1. jack is speaking based on government statistics and data. He is using information that must be accepted with a few caveats. The government numbers for unemployment do not include all people that are unemployed. See how the number is calculated here (along with much other helpful information): http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm Although this comes from a conservative source, I think there is also some helpful data (especially the graphs) along with an interpretation you can take or leave here: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Labor/wm456.cfm 2. nelson, jack mentions up front that 5.4 isn't very close to full employment. Although he likely is a republican, your ad hominem attack is unsound. I certainly can't calculate unemployment better than the government does, and while I'm not happy with it, the final criteria for unemployment stats require compromise. As long as the definition doesn't change too frequently or drastically, it's primary usefulness is in watching the progression. What the unemployment numbers don't say is more relevant to your question of the necessity for employment stimulus. As our economy moves from manufacturing to service-based jobs, a lot of people are going to need training/education. Also, while outsourcing has been a strong trend in the last decade, there seems to be a reverse trend beginning, as some jobs just aren't working out overseas (think about getting your computer warranty problems answered by anyone with an extremely thick accent...no offense to anyone, I am an ethnic minority too!). There is always a need for higher productivity and efficiency in this global economy, and in the context of the post-war construction where the economies of the world were all devestated except for us, their rebuilding and the emerging economies in the Pacific have placed a lot more pressure on the U.S. (I assume this is your context also). From the government perspective, more workers and less unemployment means more tax revenue. A healthy, productive efficient economy means not only more of the same, but more clout in the global arenas of economics and politics. From our perspective, it means hopefully less crime and better or sustained standard of living. Whatever your political persuasion, both tax change and fiscal spending policy can always be improved (think of $400 government hammers, etc.) People are expensive, and so are societies. (I like my highways and parks!) Freedom has a price, and the world is catching up. Taxing and government spending affect all the people in this nation, regardless of whether they are counted as unemployed or not, so even though I have friends that are unemployed, and don't count as unemployed anymore, it still helps my buddies that fall between the cracks. (Although he sure doesn't feel like its helping). thanks for the great question, hope this helps. |
Subject:
Re: Economics
From: nelson-ga on 15 Oct 2004 03:59 PDT |
That was not an ad hominem attack, which would involve attacking someone directly. I was attacking the entire Republican party. Also, my comment was directed at vonsedric, not jack. I fully agree when jack states that the current situation isn't very close to full employment. |
Subject:
Re: Economics
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 15 Oct 2004 05:46 PDT |
I hate to get a little off topic to describe what unemployment is rather than talking about full employment and govt policy, but I am rather enjoying the direction this is going. This is from the first site Eschat cited: "People with jobs are employed. People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed. People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force." Eschat, you claimed "I'm not happy with it" and "even though I have friends that are unemployed, and don't count as unemployed anymore" when talking about how the government calculates unemployment. Their statistical measures are far superior to any I've seen for political polling or even medical research, so I doubt that your beef is with their statistics which leaves me to believe your issue is with who fits the above description of "unemployed". Please do tell us what it is that you're unhappy with and how (if you had all the resources of the government) you would go about fixing the problem. I'm always interested in creating better, more useful statistics. I very much appreciate your comment, "As long as the definition doesn't change too frequently or drastically, it's primary usefulness is in watching the progression." A lot of people never really understand this concept and its importance to comparing data. I look forward to hearing your response. **by the way, I do tend to vote republican about 75% of the time however I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm Republican. I'd much rather relate to specific issues and/or specific candidates than to a party, as there is no way I'd ever completely agree with everything a party stands for. |
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