I need statisics for shingles.   For example   x percentage of people
under 45 get it.      X percentage of cases are preceded by rash      
 X percentage of cases are preceded by itching            x percentage
of cases are preceded by fever            x percentage of cases are
preceded by malise     I  need as much info as possible.

Thanks

Paul

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Request for Question Clarification by pafalafa-ga on 15 Oct 2004 18:25 PDT

Hello balloo-ga,

You've asked quite an interesting question.  While there's a lot of
medical information available on shingles, there are only very few
hard and fast statistics that have made their way into the literature.

Most of the articles I've seen -- even highly technical medical
journal materials -- talk in terms of symptoms and outcomes that are
"common", "infrequent", "very rare" and similar words to that effect.

In fact, actual quantative data only appear in a few instances:

--20 percent of shingles patients experience persistent nerve pain

--most sources site that anywhere from 600,000 to a million people get
shingles in the US each year, although one study put the number at
300,000

--lifetime odds of getting shingles are one-in-five

--about 1-in-20 patients who have shingles and recover will get it again later on.


There are a few other numbers that I could cite.  But the rest of the
information is qualitative:

--people over 50 have the highest risk

--"typically" shingles begins with an itch or tingle, followed by a rash

--papules "often develop"

--"many people" with shingles experience fatigue

--there is "often" slight muscle weakness at the site of the shingle rash..

and so on.


If you would like me to elaborate on this information -- and provide
citations for what are probably the most recent and thorough articles
on shingles -- than I would be happy to post that information as an
answer to your question.

However, if that doesn't quite suit your needs, perhaps you can let us
know in a bit more detail what sort of information you are looking
for, and I'll be happy to look into it for you.

Thanks.

pafalafa-ga

---

Clarification of Question by balloo-ga on 16 Oct 2004 05:51 PDT

I am involved in a situation where I want to prove, using Bayesian
therories and statistics that it is much more likely that a friend of
mind suffered a burn on his back rather than an outbreak of shingles. 
If I can find the info to plug into the formulas I think that I should
be able  to do it.

For example:   If  90% have itching and 20% have fever and my friend
had neither fever nor itching  I should be able to plug these stats
into my formula and show that the odds of my friend having shingles
are significantly decreased.  I hope that this is clear.   I do not
see how I could do it with general terms such as    often    usual

thanks

paul

Dear balloo,

Shingles is the skin condition caused by a virus named herpes zoster. I
have found the following statistics in the course of my research. Each
set of numbers was collected from one web page, the address of which is
noted immediately under the respective set.


0.18% of the US population is diagnosed with shingles each year

20% of people will contract shingles in their lifetime

WrongDiagnosis: Prevalence and Incidence of Shingles
http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/s/shingles/prevalence.htm


10% of people who have had chicken pox as children will get shingles as adults

70% of shingles cases occur in patients over the age of 50

50% of those age 80 and up will develop shingles

HealingWithNutrition: Shingles Facts and Statistics
http://www.healingwithnutrition.com/sdisease/shingles/shingles.html


20% of all people with shingles develop postherpetic neuralgia, which
is a "a prolonged, severe pain to the point where they cannot keep up
their usual activities or even wear clothing".

40% of shingles patients over age 60 develop postherpetic neuralgia

Colorado Health Site: Shingles Prevention Study: Common Questions
http://www.coloradohealthsite.org/derm/derm_def.htm


4% of people who have had one attack of shingles will have further attacks

5% of people with shingles are found to have an underlying cancer

Mama's Health: "Shingles: An Unwelcome Encore"
http://www.mamashealth.com/skin/shingles.asp


5% of shingles cases occur in children under 14 years of age

25% of Hodgkin's lymphoma patients develop shingles

15% of shingles cases are transmitted by a household member

American Family Physician: Management of Herpes Zoster (Shingles) and
Postherpetic Neuralgia
http://www.aafp.org/afp/20000415/2437.html


20% percent of AIDS patients have recurrent shingles

in 100% of shingles cases, the affected skin returns to normal in
four weeks

1% of shingles patients feel residual pain in the affected area for
longer than one year
Aetna InteliHealth: Shingles (Herpes Zoster)
http://www.intelihealth.com/IH/ihtIH/WSIHW000/9339/48820.html


Note especially the information given by Aetna InteliHealth and reviewed
by the faculty of the Harvard Medical School, according to which the skin
affected by shingles returns to normal in four weeks. If this is true,
then any skin condition that lasts longer than four weeks is not caused
by shingles.

I hope this helps you in your calculation.

Regards,

leapinglizard

If your friend is uncertain whether he has a burn or an outbreak of
shingles, a viral culture of the lesion can settle the matter.