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Subject:
Effect of the growing US frderal deficit on inflation, interest and real estate
Category: Business and Money > Economics Asked by: scout1031-ga List Price: $50.00 |
Posted:
17 Oct 2004 19:03 PDT
Expires: 16 Nov 2004 18:03 PST Question ID: 416227 |
I believe the federal deficit will continue to grow significantly during the next 10 years due to tax cuts, social security/medicareexpenditures,increasing interest rates,etc. What will be the impact of, say, doubling the federal debt over the next 10 years on INFLATION, INTEREST RATES AND REAL ESTATE PRICES? |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Effect of the growing US frderal deficit on inflation, interest and real estate
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 18 Oct 2004 05:08 PDT |
Most of the US debt is held by US citizens. These citizens for the most part would be investing these trillions of dollars one way or another, and if they didn't have government bonds many would likely have mutual funds/stocks or corporate bonds. Stocks and corporate bonds are investments in companies which in turn allows them to buy capital, hire more workers and be more productive. This would obviously be a stimulus to the economy, so it is easy to see how government debt slows down the economy. INTERST RATES: If the government has a large debt then a portion of people's savings is in government bonds. Money that would typically be in a bank or invested in a company (stocks/mutual funds/corporate bonds) is invested with the government leaving these companies in more need of funds. In essence the supply of money has been decreased which raises the interest rate. INFLATION: As these companies have less funding (stocks/mutual funds/bonds), they will produce less. So in this case there will be a smaller supply of goods but the demand will not decrease much. This shortage of goods helps cause inflation. REAL ESTATE: Typically, interest rates and real estate prices have an inverse relationship. (as interest rates rise monthly payments rise and so people can't afford as much house so demand is decreased and therefore prices fall) Right now the US national debt is around $8 Trillion and GDP is quickly approaching $12 Trillion. In other large economy countries, the larger negative affects of national debt haven't been realized until the debt is as large as GDP (which unfortionately could happen in 10 years). But we can hold out hope that our leadership will get a grip on spending before anything too serious occurs. |
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