What are the projected seats for the new US Congress to be decided in
the 2004-NOV-02 federal election?
We are deluged every day with media reporting of the latest updated
voter preferences between the two big-party nominees in the race for
president. To paraphrase George Stephenopolous, "The margin of
advantage is less than the margin of error".
What is the latest updatest projection for the elections in the US Congress?
Please provide a breakdown for the House, current seats and
post-election projected seats.
Please repeat for Senate. |
Request for Question Clarification by
omnivorous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 08:03 PDT
GH --
You're asking for quite a task here. 34 Senate seats and 435 House seats.
Who's to be accepted as having the "best" projections?
Start here:
House:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_HOUSECQ.html
Senate: http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_HOUSECQ.html
Congressional Quarterly's detail analysis:
http://cqstore.com/index.html?/politics/politicsdaily.html
CQ has written quite a bit about the House and Senate races, so
searching that site using Google site search with "House races" or
"Senate races" can be quite helpful. Lots of early analysis from
Congressional Quarterly's authoritative coverage is now wrapped into
their "Politics Daily" report.
If these don't answer your question, then please clarify what will?
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA
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Clarification of Question by
grthumongous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 11:06 PDT
omnivorous,
I was only looking for totals/aggregates for each chamber, not a
district by district breakout.
Example: House is currently x democrats, y republicans, z others.
Projected after election to be x_1 , y_1, z_1
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Request for Question Clarification by
omnivorous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 11:37 PDT
GH --
The NY Times data is up-to-date and takes into account the fact that
polling has statistical error. It looks like it should satisfy you,
no?
Best regards,
O.
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Clarification of Question by
grthumongous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 12:13 PDT
omnivorous,
I de-installed Macromedia Flash in positioning for the SP2 mega-update.
The NYT url requires zee Flash to drill down to House and Senate details.
Can you please decode for me?
markj,
I found the Cook report observation quite telling:
"For the past 10 election cycles, the re-election rate for incumbents
in the House was 95 percent or better, according to The Cook Political
Report" THX
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Clarification of Question by
grthumongous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 12:14 PDT
omnivorous,
sorry, I forgot to mention that the cited CQ link is $125 to access....
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Request for Question Clarification by
omnivorous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 13:20 PDT
GH --
I'm quite aware that the CQ's "Politics Daily" is available for a
price -- and modestly priced it is. However, Congressional Quarterly
Weekly has been tracking these races for 9 months. Earlier this year
I used the reporting from this site to profile hot contested House,
Senate and Gubernatorial races in a consulting report that I did:
http://www.cq.com/
Again, use it to do a site search (Google's Advanced search
capabilities) for terms such as:
"house races"
"Washington 8th District"
or even candidates names
And I'm not sure what your difficulties are with the NY Times page --
and mine's appearing as an HTML document, not Flash. Top-level
results are in HTML. Links to states and districts are on the page as
well, though that may be where you're getting into trouble. If
there's a state or two that are of particular interest, I can drill
down on those for House and Senate races, if you'd like.
By the way, your comments on incumbents being returned at very high
rates is correct. And it's been the subject of many studies, trying
to determine if it's voter-related or rather the perks of the office
(such as franking privileges).
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA
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Clarification of Question by
grthumongous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 14:13 PDT
omnivirous,
I don't plan to re-install Flash until after I upgrade to XP
servicepack 2, and that won't be until after the election....
Without Flash, the NWT url shows a map of the USA with states shown in
various shades but no numbers and nothing clickable...
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Request for Question Clarification by
omnivorous-ga
on
24 Oct 2004 14:25 PDT
GH --
Interesting. Compound pages (SWF and HTML) are rare. I'm surprised
that the NY Times used them here. Otherwise it's a very good page.
I went looking for CQ's earlier prediction page from January/February.
It's there if you register for the site for free. I was going to
suggest the Internet Archives' Wayback Machine -- but unfortunately
cq.com is redirecting to the current issue:
http://www.archive.org/web/web.php
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA
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Clarification of Question by
grthumongous-ga
on
12 Nov 2004 21:02 PST
sorry omnivorous....hardware failure...closing question.
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