I am looking for research regarding very general betting strategies
for betting on NCAA Men's college basketball and football.
Example: I have read that in the NFL, betting on underdogs playing at
home has historically won about 54% of the time (wizardofodds.com).
This info is immediately useful when I make picks because it requires
no further research when I go to the betting sheet. I know that in the
long run, I will make money betting on home dogs. Some websites give
free newsletters telling us overly complicated strategies, such as
"team x is 8-0 when playing at home against a team that has just lost
the week before and is averaging less than 100 yds passing and that is
coming off of a bye." That is far too complex for what I am looking
for. (I do not have time to do research before making my weekly
picks.)
I am looking for similar **empirically based** data for NCAA Mens BB and Football.
Ideally, I would get info no more complicated than:
"Historically, betting on a 5 point road underdog covers the spread X%
of the time and wins outright Y% of the time"
--this type of info allows me to immediately determine (after looking
at the daily lines and donig quick mental math) whether a bet is worth
making.
Against the spread and money-line betting trends are both greatly
appreciated. If I get some really juicy info, I will include a very
nice tip. |