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Subject:
Guessing prime rate in 3 & 4 yrs
Category: Business and Money > Economics Asked by: pnoeric-ga List Price: $5.00 |
Posted:
05 Nov 2004 12:56 PST
Expires: 05 Dec 2004 12:56 PST Question ID: 424958 |
Making the best guess, what do we think the rate will go in the next three years, and the next four years? I realize it's up to the Fed but I'm looking for a good, informed guess based on the past and some broad predictions of how the economy will shape up. I.e. if the "worst case" is the fed will raise the rate by two points a year, that would put it at +6 pts in 3 yrs, or 10.75%... thanks, Eric |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Guessing prime rate in 3 & 4 yrs
From: nronronronro-ga on 05 Nov 2004 14:23 PST |
I'm not smart enough to guess the Prime Rate in 4 years. But you might consider hedging the risk at the current level of 4.75%. In that manner, you would be indifferent in 4 years; whether the Prime Rate was 6% or 13% would make no difference to you as you would be "locked in" at 4.75%. Such hedges can be accomplished using derivatives, swaps, futures, forwards, options, or the mutual fund RRPIX. Caution: you should consult with a professional. Otherwise, you might blow yourself up. Good luck! |
Subject:
Re: Guessing prime rate in 3 & 4 yrs
From: pnoeric-ga on 05 Nov 2004 15:17 PST |
Thanks for the comment. Yeah, I'm not sure how to use any of those mechanisms you mention to hedge ;-) My specific situation is that I have a HELOC set at prime - .25%; I need to loan my business some money but I need to lock in guaranteed monthly payments. Since my HELOC is adjustable but the payments have to be fixed, I figure I'll estimate the "worst case" and then base the monthly payments on that rate... I just don't want to loan the company the money at 5%, and then have the prime leap up to 8% next year, leaving me in the red on the loan. |
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