Dear scrogginstx-ga;
Thank you for allowing me an opportunity to answer your interesting
question. Weather is an unpredictable thing. This is especially true
where drought is concerned. A drought is not a weather event in the
same way that snow is, rather a drought it is a climactic event or a
negative environmental trend like a bad El Nino or persistent sub-zero
temperatures. A drought then is the result (or symptom) of negative
weather conditions and is not, in itself, a weather event.
The reasonable foresight of rain in the near future, while it would
indeed be welcome, is not the solution to the problem. A real drought
can only be rectified by sustained moisture so the occasional rain or
a single enormous downpour is not going to correct the problem any
time soon and certainly not overnight. Having said that, it is
entirely possible to have flood conditions and a drought at the same
time. Because of this the persistence of the drought cannot easily be
forecasted. How the soil responds to eventual rains is also a major
factor and this certainly cannot be predicted with a great deal of
accuracy over a large area of varying degrees and compounds of soil.
Unfortunately, according to experts there is no relief in sight for
Texas in terms of the ongoing drought ? at least not in the
foreseeable future - and the general expectation is that things will
even get worse before they get better:
"It's hard to break a drought," said Allen Spelce, spokesman for the
Texas Department of Agriculture. "It takes a number of wet years. We
need rain. And we need it now."
That is unlikely anytime soon; the drought is expected to worsen in 2006.
If that forecast holds up, officials say, the drought will have
become, effectively, a single, eight-year-long weather event.?
DEBILITATING DROUGHT EXPECTED TO GET WORSE
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/3557364.html
A soaking rain would definitely help the situation as would a
long-sustained wet period. According to Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon based
at Texas A&M University?s College of Geosciences, says that forecasts
are calling for a warmer than normal temperatures this winter, along
with the drier than normal precipitation. The Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) both agree the drought will continue: ?There is little to
indicate the precipitation should be above normal? in the next three
months, the CPC report indicated. ?With 12-month precipitation
deficits as high as 15 to 20 inches, several months of above normal
precipitation would likely be needed to significantly ease the
drought.?
WINTER FORECAST FOR TEXAS: DROUGHT
http://www.countryworldnews.com/Editorial/SCTX/2005/sc1208drought.html
The National Weather Service winter outlook for Texas concludes, ?The
severity of the drought is expected to persist or worsen over the new
few months?
Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings, but if it?s any consolation, it
HAS been much worse than this during droughts past.
I hope you find that my research exceeds your expectations. If you
have any questions about my research please post a clarification
request prior to rating the answer. Otherwise, I welcome your rating
and your final comments and I look forward to working with you again
in the near future. Thank you for bringing your question to us.
Best regards;
Tutuzdad ? Google Answers Researcher
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DROUGHT
TEXAS
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (NOAA) |
